PREVIOUSLY:
Mayor’s race
Controller’s race
Harris Health bond referendum
We have four runoffs in the At Large races, and they’re all basically D versus R affairs. The HCDP and the Harris County GOP have taken their sides. Let’s look at where the runoff candidates stand, starting with AL1.
Dist Glenn JRam Miles Baker Reyes Wolft
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A 868 5,478 2,874 2,431 3,280 1,583
B 1,201 1,594 7,896 2,304 1,559 623
C 1,765 8,879 4,908 3,684 11,480 6,325
D 1,371 2,626 10,024 2,483 2,966 1,612
E 1,418 7,719 3,769 4,177 4,427 1,522
F 628 2,250 2,081 1,505 1,343 595
G 1,195 9,857 3,654 5,266 5,863 2,073
H 817 4,411 2,694 1,497 5,458 1,936
I 730 3,534 3,089 1,222 3,681 1,153
J 461 1,847 1,500 1,044 1,455 620
K 925 3,083 6,668 1,966 2,959 1,452
Dist Glenn JRam Miles Baker Reyes Wolft
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A 5.26% 33.17% 17.40% 14.72% 19.86% 9.59%
B 7.91% 10.50% 52.03% 15.18% 10.27% 4.10%
C 4.76% 23.97% 13.25% 9.95% 30.99% 17.08%
D 6.50% 12.46% 47.55% 11.78% 14.07% 7.65%
E 6.16% 33.51% 16.36% 18.14% 19.22% 6.61%
F 7.47% 26.78% 24.77% 17.91% 15.98% 7.08%
G 4.28% 35.32% 13.09% 18.87% 21.01% 7.43%
H 4.86% 26.24% 16.02% 8.90% 32.46% 11.51%
I 5.44% 26.36% 23.04% 9.11% 27.45% 8.60%
J 6.66% 26.66% 21.65% 15.07% 21.00% 8.95%
K 5.42% 18.08% 39.10% 11.53% 17.35% 8.51%
I say these races are all D versus R but that’s a little bit fuzzy in AL1, where Melanie Miles ran for a Family Court bench in 2018 as a Republican. Judicial races are a little different, and that was especially the case in the period when the benches were all Republican. Officially speaking, things are all forgiven, hence the HCDP endorsement. The Chron, which had endorsed Conchita Reyes in Round One, endorsed Julian Ramirez in the runoff, saying this was a race between two similar candidates and they preferred him. I would have preferred that they at least unpack this tossed-off sentence from their endorsement a bit more: “Despite his troubling endorsement from the far-right group True Texas Project, Ramirez insists he is no extremist.” In the Year of Our Lord 2023, candidates who are endorsed by extremist groups are themselves presumed to be extremists unless they take particular pains to truly distance themselves from said endorsements. The fact that the Chron didn’t mention what Ramirez’s response to this suggests an uncomfortably large blind spot on their side.
Be that as it may, we’re here for the numbers. Adding in the Fort Bend totals, Ramirez had a tiny lead over Miles in November. Miles led the way in the three Black districts, with room to grow in all three, and has a lot of room to do better in District C. Ramirez led in the three Republican districts, again with room to grow, and he could end up doing better than Miles in District H and I. Given the Democratic nature of Houston municipal elections, that gives the overall advantage to Miles, but it’s not a slam dunk. She finished fourth in C, and trailed third place finisher Reyes everywhere outside the Black districts except for F and J. She shouldn’t take anything for granted.
As for Reyes, she came within less than seven thousand votes of making this and all-Latino runoff. She led in H and I, and most impressively in C. I don’t know how much of a consolation prize it is to say that she ought to be a leading contender for an At Large seat in 2027, but lots of eventual Council members didn’t win on their first try. Nick Hellyar, who was a runnerup in 2019, is trying to do in AL2 what I’m suggesting Reyes try in four years. That’s a long enough time that she may well be on to other things by then, but if not, I hope she keeps that in mind.