PREVIOUSLY:
Mayor’s race
Controller’s race
Harris Health bond referendum
At Large #1
Dist Davis Hellyar Coryat Bess Holly Obes
==========================================================
A 5,494 3,854 1,580 2,112 1,830 1,184
B 5,834 800 1,286 5,148 658 1,211
C 7,921 13,067 2,477 4,679 4,923 2,740
D 6,341 2,628 1,353 7,827 1,230 1,696
E 9,254 5,975 1,601 2,411 2,122 1,326
F 2,971 1,386 853 1,248 822 1,020
G 10,410 8,853 1,386 2,654 2,909 1,626
H 3,871 3,499 2,290 2,386 2,676 1,193
I 3,314 1,911 1,932 2,798 1,790 1,040
J 2,212 1,243 748 937 935 755
K 5,277 2,888 1,415 4,083 1,430 1,511
Dist Davis Hellyar Coryat Bess Holly Obes
==========================================================
A 33.27% 23.34% 9.57% 12.79% 11.08% 7.17%
B 38.44% 5.27% 8.47% 33.92% 4.34% 7.98%
C 21.38% 35.28% 6.69% 12.63% 13.29% 7.40%
D 30.08% 12.47% 6.42% 37.13% 5.83% 8.04%
E 40.18% 25.94% 6.95% 10.47% 9.21% 5.76%
F 35.36% 16.50% 10.15% 14.85% 9.78% 12.14%
G 37.30% 31.72% 4.97% 9.51% 10.42% 5.83%
H 23.02% 20.81% 13.62% 14.19% 15.92% 7.10%
I 24.71% 14.25% 14.41% 20.87% 13.35% 7.76%
J 31.93% 17.94% 10.80% 13.53% 13.50% 10.90%
K 30.94% 16.94% 8.30% 23.94% 8.39% 8.86%
Willie Davis is no stranger to being in the AL2 runoff – he’s been there twice before, in 2015 and 2019, both times with outgoing incumbent David Robinson. You might think his profile as a Black Republican might enable him to get enough crossover support to be dangerous – I admit I was very nervous about that 2015 runoff – but Robinson easily defeated him both times. Davis has never raised much money and I can’t say I’ve ever seen an ad or even a campaign sign for him outside of a polling place. He gets Republican support, but that’s not nearly enough to win a Houston race.
That said, this time he starts as the leader from the November election, leading Nick Hellyar in Round One in Harris County 31.8% to 23.1%. That’s Davis’ best showing in a November race, and his path to a win this week is easy enough to define: Win big in the Republican districts and do well enough in the Black districts to erode Hellyar’s Democratic advantage. With Danielle Bess and Obes Nwabara also on the ballot, Hellyar wasn’t competitive in B, D, and K. You look at that as plenty of room to grow or as a big hole to crawl out of. On the flip side, Hellyar more than held his own in A, E, and G, and he should be set up to dominate District C. Too put it another way, he just has to try to mimic Robinson’s runoff performances. Hellyar has also been on the ballot before, though not in a runoff, he has money and a path to follow. I make him a slight favorite, but I’ve got some 2015-style nerves on this one.
“Robinson” helped David win in 15 and 19 but Davis Vs hellyar is an impossible situation for hellyar to overcome you’ll see Willie Davis finishing 54 percent for the victory.
I wrote elsewhere that I believed that many people did not realize that Holly was Latina, as her last name is not a common Spanish last name. It is Catalonian. Based on the number of votes she received in I and H; it looks like I may have been right.
Judson Robinson, Judson Robinson Jr., Carroll Robinson.
Robinson is a common Black last name, Hellyar is not. It would not surprise me that Davis does very well in the Black community and the Republicans have been doing mailers for all the candidates, but Whitmire.
Agreed. Low information black voters will vote for Willie Davis and Twila Carter based on name alone.
D.R., while the statement may be true, the way it is phrased is kinda insulting. There are a lot of low-information Republicans (MAGA) that vote the same way. Thus, those three Republican Spanish surnamed Latinos will not get their votes. Insulting those who insult one is permitted.