Not looking great for some parts of the state right now.
Two consecutive summers of brutal heat and drought have left some parts of Texas with notably low water supplies going into 2024.
A wet year or a well-placed hurricane could quickly pull these regions back from the brink. But winter rains have disappointed so far. Recent downpours are the first in weeks for parts of the state, and they won’t hit the watersheds that need them most.
Looking ahead, forecasters increasingly expect another scorching summer here this year.
That’s bad news for places like far South Texas, where big reservoirs on the Lower Rio Grande fell from 33% to 23% full over the last 12 months. A repeat of similar conditions would leave the reservoirs far lower than they’ve ever been, triggering an emergency response and an international crisis.
Worries stretch beyond the Rio Grande. In Corpus Christi, on the South Texas coast, authorities last month stopped releasing water aimed at maintaining minimum viable ecology in the coastal wetlands, even as oil refineries and chemical plants remain exempt from water use restrictions during drought.
Also last month, in the sprawling suburbs of Central Texas, between Austin and San Antonio, one groundwater district declared stage four drought for the first time in its 36-year history.
Texans don’t usually talk about drought in the winter. Damp soil and green grass may conceal the impending predicament today, but water planners in regions with low reserves nervously await what summer may bring.
“Signs are not favorable,” said Greg Waller, a coordinating hydrologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Fort Worth. “Expect warmer and drier, again.”
“Pretty scary times,” said Jim Darling, president of the Rio Grande Regional Water Authority and former mayor of McAllen. “We’ll see what happens.”
Winter and spring rains offer the best hope for relief, he said, but weather patterns so far haven’t produced the sustained downpours needed to refill reservoirs.
Drought conditions in 2022 and 2023 struck with markedly acute severity. Last year was the hottest on record for Texas — and the Earth, according to NOAA — after a global heatwave shattered temperature records around the world.
These patterns, Waller said, are consistent with scientific understanding of climate change caused by carbon emissions.
“Climate change means the extremes are going to get more extreme,” he said. “The heat waves are going to get more heat. The droughts are going to get droughty-er and the floods are going to get floody-er.”
Texas rainfall typically peaks in May. If relief doesn’t come by then, some places will need to start bracing for impact.
You can read the rest for more details about those places and the challenges they face. We were just talking about this, and I’m sure we’ll be talking about it a lot more. The Lege did take some action last year, as they had done a decade ago following the previous big heat wave and drought. They’re going to have to increase that pace, and maybe talk to some of their colleagues in Washington DC about doing some things as well. Or, you know, we could vote in some better legislators and Congressfolk. Just a thought. And so we don’t end on such a bummer, here’s a song:
That’s an old song and there are many versions of it. I just like that one.