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This week, in news from Dallas-Fort Worth, primary coverage. And more primary coverage. And some primary analysis, even. This week’s post was brought to you by the music of Air, whose tickets I plan to get early Friday, and Phoenix. It’s a French music kind of day.
The big news is obviously the outcomes of Tuesday’s primaries. As I write on Thursday afternoon, it’s mostly clear who won, who lost, and who’s going to a runoff. The analyses are coming out all over the state and local media. Let’s have a look.
First, how was voting? They had long wait times in Collin County and some minor problems in Irving and Denton but the big loser, unsurprisingly, was Tarrant County, which didn’t have a joint primary and ended up with Democratic voters zipping in and out while Republicans waited in line. Part of the problem was that the county was tracking wait times but failed to share them. Meanwhile, early voting reports were not great: fewer than 10% voted in Dallas County; in Tarrant County Republican early voting was up by about 50% and Democratic voting was down by half compared to 2020; and WFAA has regional numbers by county for the stat-heads.
Before we get into results, I’d also like to note this NBC piece from just before the runoff for Matt Rinaldi’s comments. And, in absolutely terrible timing, Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker endorsed Nikki Haley on Monday only to see Haley crushed, as expected, on Super Tuesday and suspend her campaign on Wednesday. Ouch.
We have some general coverage of the election results from the Dallas Observer and D Magazine. But let’s get to the nitty-gritty:
- The Star-Telegram has a list of Tarrant County races going to a runoff, most of which we’ll touch on below.
- Similarly, the Fort Worth Report has a list of the US House races in Tarrant County for your summary reading pleasure.
- CD 12: is going to a runoff on the Republican side between Craig Goldman and John O’Shea. Goldman voted to impeach Ken Paxton in the House and O’Shea is a friend of Paxton’s. Enough said. See the DMN for more details.
- CD 26: Brandon Gill won the Republican primary pretty solidly here, beating out Southlake Mayor John Huffman and nepo baby Scott Armey. Gill is also a nepo baby: he’s Dinesh D’Souza’s son-in-law.
- CD 32: Julie Johnson won the Democratic primary to replace Colin Allred, edging out 9 other candidates, including trauma surgeon Brian Williams. More from the Texas Tribune.
- SD 16, which is my Senate District: Our incumbent Nathan Johnson won decisively over Victoria Neave Criado. I hadn’t realized that there was no Republican contender in this primary, which is a huge change from when I moved up here 5 1/2 years ago. This seat used to be held by Don Huffines! It’s now considered safe Democratic, which is a combination of redistricting and the bluing of Dallas. Again, check the Texas Tribune for more.
- SD 30: Brent Hagenbuch and Jace Yarborough are headed to a runoff in the Republican primary. Hagenbuch is dealing with residence qualification allegations, although nobody expects that to go anywhere. This was an open safe Republican district, and I had to click through to the DMN election results page to find out who the Democratic candidates were: Michael Braxton and Dale Frey are going to a runoff.
- HD 108, my district: Morgan Meyer, one of the House impeachment managers, held off a Ken Paxton-fuelled challenge by the skin of his teeth. The DMN had an analysis piece on this race: Dan Patrick and Paxton supported the challenger, but Abbott supported Meyer. On the Democratic side, perpetual candidate Liz Ginsberg beat challenger Yasmin Simon, but I had to go to the DMN results page to get the details. I suspect the contributions by Simon to a Republican representative mentioned in the DMN endorsement of Ginsberg are what cost her the election.
- HD 97: Cheryl Bean and John McQueeney are headed to a runoff for Craig Goldman’s old seat in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, Diane Symons and Carlos Walker are headed to a runoff.
- HD 91: Incumbent Stephanie Klick was forced into a runoff by repeat challenger David Lowe in the Republican primary. Lowe is a Defend Texas Liberty funding recipient and she voted to impeach Paxton. The Star-Telegram has more.
- HD 67: Jeff Leach survived a revenge primary by a supporter of his old Collin County buddy Ken Paxton.
- HD 65: Paxton took a head here: Mitch Little beat out incumbent Kronda Thimesch in the Republican primary. Little was one of Paxton’s impeachment trial lawyers and Thimesch was another pro-impeachment vote. Also note that Patriot Mobile had their fingers in this pie; they brought Steve Bannon to rally with Ken Paxton for Little.
- HD 62: I regret to inform you that COVID hairdresser Shelley Luther is back. She beat incumbent Reggie Smith in the Republican primary. I had to hit the Texas Tribune results page to find out that Luther will have a Democratic opponent in November.
- HD 61: A Paxton revenge primary forced incumbent Frederick Frazier into a runoff, with the challenger almost 8 points ahead (per the DMN election page).
- HD 33: Still another Paxton revenge primary forced incumbent Justin Holland into a runoff (per the DMN election page).
- HD 2: In a reversal of the recent special election, Brent Money beat Jill Dutton in the Republican primary. Again, the Tribune pages tell me the Dems do have an opponent ready. Here’s a local paper’s reporting, since I didn’t see a piece in the DMN. Note that the local paper is also relying on the Tribune!
- SBOE 11: In bad news, twenty-year incumbent Pat Hardy lost to a well-funded 27-year-old pastor in the Republican primary. The DMN has some analysis: How a North Texas race could push Texas’ education board further right. Yikes. The DMN’s coverage also includes other area SBOE primary races that are going to runoffs, some paid for by the same PAC that helped pastor Brandon Hall take down Hardy. See more on this entire mess in the Texas Tribune.
- The Dallas GOP has chosen perpetually mobile grifter Allen West as their Chair. I wish them everything they deserve for their choice.
- Dallas County Commissioners Theresa McDaniel (my precinct) and John Wiley Price easily fended off primary challengers in the Democratic primaries here. We got a lot of mail for McDaniel but I didn’t even know that she had a challenger other than by the amount of mail we were getting for her. As for Price “Our Man Downtown” was in no danger. He’s South Dallas’ favorite because he brings home the bacon.
- Our Sherriff’s race has a runoff in the Democratic primary: incumbent Marian Brown and her predecessor, Lupe Valdez, whom those of you in other parts of the state may remember from her run for governor in 2018. This is a runoff vote I will actually be eligible for so I guess it’s time to study up.
The general consensus in local media is that the Republican Party is moving to the right and that Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton are the winners so far. Unsurprisingly everybody on the Republican side feels hard done by: the DMN thinks people on both sides are too mean to centrists and the Star-Telegram’s Mark Davis, also a right-wing radio guy, thinks people are being deceptively unfair to folks like Brandon Gill on the far right. (He also thinks Defend Texas Liberty is grassroots and it’s unfair to align the people they support with Nick Fuentes.) And the Dallas Observer interviewed a historian who links the meanness of the Republican revenge tour with the KKK’s voter intimidation tactics a hundred years ago.
Everyone seems to agree the big winner from Tuesday’s primaries is Governor Abbott: the Star-Telegram’s News analyst Bud Kennedy; their editorial board (who think Paxton is going to call the win his); our local NBC affiliate’s analyst, who thinks Abbott might get vouchers passed next year; Axios; KERA; and the DMN’s education analysts. Where Ken Paxton is concerned, the question is more complicated, according to KERA. What was the difference? Abbott put his money where his mouth was and Paxton didn’t.
The DMN calls the the GOP primary “a watershed moment in state politics” because nine incumbents were defeated and eight more may lose in the runoff. The Star-Telegram’s analysis calls this “[o]utsider vs. establishment politics” but how a slate supported by the presumptive GOP nominee for president and the governor of Texas can be “outsiders” is mystifying to me. I know they really mean culture-war MAGATs when they say outsiders and they mean business Republicans not interested in the culture wars when they say “establishment”, but I agree with the DMN that this is more about bringing the hard-right politicking of the Senate to the House. For similar reasons, I’m not comfortable with the Texas Tribune labeling the challengers as “insurgents”, especially when they’re well-financed by billionaires, as this Fort Worth Report article on the shift in Tarrant County GOP politics describes. Unusually, I find myself in agreement with Star-Telegram columnist Mark Davis: change is in the wind on the GOP side. Also, blood is in the water.
And it’s going to stay there until the runoff on May 28. Check the DMN and the Star-Telegram for the details, and may the least bad Republican win.