From the inbox:
UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization, today released findings from its 2024 Pre-Election Poll of Texas’s Hispanic Electorate. The data shows that the top five priorities for Texas Latino voters, two months out from the election, are dominated by economic concerns, with inflation and wages as the top two priorities, and healthcare costs as the fourth priority. Immigration was the third priority, and abortion and crime/gun violence tied for the fifth priority. Poll results, as well as upcoming additional Congressional district-level data for the Latino voting-age population provided by the USC Center for Inclusive Democracy, can be found in UnidosUS Hispanic Electorate Data Hub, launched last November to advance a more accurate understanding of this electorate.
- See a slide presentation of poll toplines here.
- Check out the interactive Hispanic Electorate Hub here.
- A video recording of the virtual briefing discussing the poll results will be available here.
Eric Holguin, UnidosUS’s Texas state director, said, “From their pocketbooks to their healthcare to immigration, Texas Hispanic voters are focused on living a prosperous life regardless of one’s background or origin. While some may be trying to divide Texans on issues like immigration, Latinos believe in a balanced approach that advances legality, particularly for those deeply rooted in our communities, and punishes traffickers and smugglers preying on people’s desperation. Texas can be a thriving place for all, and Hispanic voters want our leaders to reach out and work with our communities on real solutions rather than playing partisan politics.”Key Findings Include:On the issues
- Texas Latino voters’ top five issues are largely consistent with Latinos across the country and continue to be dominated by pocketbook and economic concerns.
- Inflation: Food and basic necessities, housing/rent and gas prices are driving concerns about inflation.
- Jobs: Better pay and concerns about job security top the concerns about jobs and economy.
- Immigration: Path to citizenship for immigrants brought to the US as children, and cracking down on human and drug traffickers are tied for the top concerns.
- Healthcare: Costs of insurance and medication are the driving concerns.
- Abortion: Latino voters are concerned that abortion bans put women’s health and lives at risk.
- Crime/Gun Violence: The top concern is that guns and assault weapons are too easy to get.
- On immigration, the top priorities are a path to citizenship for long-residing undocumented immigrants and cracking down on human smugglers/drug traffickers.
- On abortion, by a 65% to 24% margin, Latinos in Texas consistently oppose making it illegal or taking that decision away from others, no matter their own personal beliefs.
On voting
- In 2024, 26% of Latinos in Texas will be voting in their first presidential election.
- 38% of the Texas Latino electorate is new since the 2016 presidential election.
- While a majority of Latinos are certain they will vote, many are still deciding.
- Early outreach is key: 33% plan to vote early, 28% by absentee ballot and 39% on Election Day.
- 52% say they have not been contacted this cycle by either party or any campaign.
On the parties and candidates
- On priority issues overall, Democrats are more trusted than Republicans, but 23% of Latino voters responded “neither,” “both” or “don’t know” when asked which party would be better at addressing their priority issue.
- In the Senate race, Democrat Colin Allred holds a +20-point lead in support from Latino voters over Republican Ted Cruz: 51% to 31%
- Vice President Harris holds a +23-point lead in support from Latino voters over former President Trump: 57% to 34%.
Dayana Iza Presas, Mi Familia en Acción’s Texas state director said, “These findings mirror the concerns of our communities in Texas. From conversations with community members, the rising cost of living remains an area of uncertainty that requires urgent attention from the next administration. On immigration, families continue to live in a state of limbo where they face constant legal attacks and lack of security while still having to pay high renewal fees. Mi Familia en Acción is ready to mobilize. We are launching our electoral program to activate Latino voters that have yet to be contacted and encouraged to vote. We are making sure that in this election new voters receive the support that they need to make their voice be heard.”Conducted by BSP Research with oversamples in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Texas, the 2024 Pre-Election Poll of the Hispanic Electorate provides a more accurate and nuanced understanding of this decisive, but often misunderstood electorate, and serves as a follow-up to UnidosUS 2023 Pre-Election Poll.About the survey:Total N=3,000 Latino eligible voters
- N= 2,800 registered.
- N= 200 eligible, not registered.
- Margin of error +/- 1.8%.
Oversamples
- N=300 per: Arizona, California, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania (+/- 5.7%).
- N=400 Florida, Texas (+/- 4.9%).
Field Dates: August 5-23, 2024
- English or Spanish, according to preference.
- Mixed mode: 75% online, 25% live telephone interviews.
I got to see a presentation of the data, which was quite good. Check out the slide pack for everything they covered. I admit I held my breath a little as they were coming to the Presidential and Senate numbers, but overall I was happy with them. I asked the question after the presentation what were the numbers from 2020 for the poll respondents, and was told it was 48-33 for Biden (remember that a significant portion of the sample is new voters), so this is an improvement from then. I am hopeful.
The clear message from this poll is that both parties do a lousy job of outreach to Latino voters. Hardly breaking news, I know, but you’d think after all this time we’d be better at it. One other big takeaway was that younger voters were less connected to either party; this was true across the board, not just in Texas. Some of that may just be the usual matter of electoral politics being less relevant to younger people, that wasn’t something that was explored in greater depth. It’s both an opportunity and a threat, and echoes the first point about inadequate outreach. Like I said, we really ought to be better at this.
Anyway. This is as always just one poll, and one should be very careful about what inferences one draws from a single poll. I will note that most general purpose polls of Texas will have a smaller subsample of Hispanic respondents than this poll had, so do keep that in mind if you see another poll with a significantly different result for Hispanic voters. Doesn’t mean the other poll is wrong, but the error bars will be wider. The Texas Signal, who was also on the call, has more.
I have problems with polls that tell us what we think. Earlier this year, when I responded to a poll, they asked my primary concern. I told them something that was not on their list. They told me I had to pick what was on the list. I hung up when they would not accept it as an answer.
Here is an article with lots of numbers concerning minority voters in Texas from USC. Among the findings, white non hispanics voted at 70% turnout while minorities voted at 50% turnout. The number of eligible black voters who did not turn out was twice the presidential margin of victory while the number of eligible hispanic voters who did not vote was six times the presidential margin of victory.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57b8c7ce15d5dbf599fb46ab/t/66ce56009f8e0718615d716d/1724798469394/USC_BattlegroundStateVote_TX.pdf