Houston ISD is on track in 2024-25 to see its largest single-year enrollment loss since the pandemic, with the majority of student departures coming from campuses overhauled under a controversial new model implemented by state-appointed Superintendent Mike Miles.
Records obtained by the Houston Landing show HISD enrolled about 173,900 students in the fourth week of this school year, down from 182,500 at the same point last school year.
The 8,600-student decline equals roughly 5 percent of the student population. If the enrollment trend holds through late October, when Texas schools take their official enrollment tallies, it would top the 3 percent decline seen in 2023-24, the steepest in recent years.
HISD typically continues to add more students through September and October. Last school year, for example, HISD’s enrollment eventually reached 184,100 by late October, up about 1,600 students from the fourth week of school.
If HISD follows similar trends this year, its final count would total roughly 176,000 — the lowest level in at least a half-century, according to various historical reports. The drop marks the fifth consecutive year of an enrollment skid in Texas’ largest district and continues a nearly decade-long trend of student losses.
The numbers indicate the 130 schools in Miles’ transformation model — which aims to boost academics through new teaching practices, revamped curriculums and increased teacher pay — have lost about 5,300 children, or 7 percent of their enrollment, in the first month of classes. Eighty-five of those schools saw those changes last school year, while 45 were added to the overhaul in August.
Meanwhile, the 141 schools that have not been targeted for overhaul have so far lost about 1,500 students, or 1.5 percent of their total. A virtual charter school operated through a contract with HISD, which serves students across the state, accounted for the other 1,900 departed students.
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The enrollment losses could hurt district finances, likely leading to at least $50 million less in funding. Texas primarily funds public school districts based on the number of students attending them.
HISD officials projected enrollment losses totaling about 4,000 students this year when they crafted their 2024-25 budget, which included slashing about $500 million, or one-fifth of the district’s spending on operations, due to an impending funding cliff.
Losing another 4,000-plus students could force HISD to find other ways to make up a larger funding gap, such as dipping deeper into its reserves or identifying additional budget cuts, such as staff layoffs. However, HISD has often underestimated its revenues or overestimated its spending in recent years, so it’s not immediately clear if students and staff will see an impact from lower-than-expected enrollment.
The data obtained by the Landing appear to confirm an early finding first reported by the Houston Chronicle, which showed HISD was about 9,000 students behind previous years’ enrollment milestones after the first week of school.
According to that Chron story cited by The Landing, HISD had projected enrollment of about 179K for this school year. The final total will creep up a bit from the 174K it is now, but it’s not going to get close to what the district thought it would be. The fact that the drop is greatest at the NES campuses sure says a lot. There are plenty of things about what Mike Miles is doing that we can debate. The one thing that seems clear is that a lot of people aren’t buying what he’s selling. What are we going to do about that?
Parents are voting with their feet.
Vote NO on the HISD bonds. The only group that benefits are members of the Greater Houston Partnership. They were one of the major groups behind promoting the takeover of HISD with help from the Chronicle.
Maybe, just maybe, the decreasing enrollment in HISD schools doesn’t have anything to do with Miles and NES campuses, and has more to due to the quality of education being delivered by HISD over the last couple decades, and the probabilty that a private education yields a more well rounded, educated graduating class that’s afforded better secondary/college opportunities.
Full disclaimer: My progeny went to local HISD schools for a couple years then to private after repeated budget cuts showed ‘where this is all going’. Avoided disruptive classrooms, active shooters on campus, student-on-student violence, budget cuts, bad lunches, underpaid and disgruntled teachers, etc. Had better equiped classrooms and a higher education that what HISD could offer, and progeny had a choice of going to any one of ten or so Universities appplied to and accepted at. Boatload of cash, absolutely, but my job as a parent is to provide my child/children with opportunities I was never afforded.
Charter schools are also on the rise.
Parents should always look at multiple options for what works best for their children.
Miles has put HISD in the spotlight and more parents than usual are considering their school options.