Not really sure how to explain this other than to say polls be weird sometimes.
A new survey from UTSA’s Center for Public Opinion Research indicated that in bright blue San Antonio, support has been growing for Democrat Colin Allred in his uphill race against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
A UTSA poll conducted Oct. 15-20 indicated that Allred’s lead over Cruz in San Antonio increased slightly in the past month, from a 44-28% race in September, to a 48-30% race in the most recent survey.
Statewide, polls shows Cruz leading the race by about one percentage point.
But higher turnout in more Democratic areas could have an impact on the race.
So far, Texas’ major urban centers including San Antonio have been exceeding turnout expectations in the first days of early voting — giving new hope to some Democratic campaign professionals who believe Texas could be closer to turning blue than they initially thought.
The UTSA poll, which launched at the beginning of this year, has made some changes to its methodology since the last survey: This time it used only San Antonio voters, instead of voters from across Bexar County, to avoid confusion about questions that only pertain to San Antonio voters.
Since the UTSA poll is new, whether it reliably predicts the outcome of San Antonio’s vote remains untested, and it’s also unclear how the change in methodology will affect its results — but in a community where local polling is scarce, it gives a rare window into local voter sentiment ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
The survey was conducted using online surveys to query 656 San Antonio likely voters in both English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.
“This is probably largely a name recognition thing,” said Bryan Gervais, the center’s director and an associate professor in UTSA’s Department of Political Science and Geography, who pointed to Allred’s steady rise locally since UTSA’s first survey in June.
Allred’s growing support comes as the same respondents to UTSA’s poll indicated their overall preference for Democratic candidates has weakened over the past month.
In UTSA’s September survey, San Antonio was riding the high of a new presidential nominee in Harris, and displaying overall enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket.
The October survey showed Harris leading Trump 49-34% among San Antonio voters, down from her 54-35% lead in September.
Voters in the September survey said they’d choose Democratic candidates over Republican candidates 51-35%. In October, that margin had decreased to 46-36%.
Though UTSA’s past surveys excluded residents outside of San Antonio when asking San Antonio-specific questions, Gervais said the decision to switch from Bexar County voters to San Antonio voters was needed for overall clarity.
On this polling memo, residents outside of Bexar County were removed from the September responses to allow for apples-to-apples comparisons.
See here for the September poll and here for the poll memo. The “don’t know” responses ticked up two points in the Presidential race since September, which to me says this may be a sample issue. I don’t know how you get that combination of Allred’s growth and Cruz’s shrinkage without the Presidential numbers going along. For what it’s worth, the “don’t know” contingent in the Senate race is still a lot higher than in the Presidential one, though it inched down a bit from September. I said I’d look for their October poll results after the September one came out, so here it is. I wish them well with this endeavor going forward.