In no particular order…
1. I don’t expect Democrats to win statewide in Texas. It would be great, it would do a world of good, but I’d be setting myself up for disappointment if I start there. What I want as a bottom line is for Kamala Harris to come closer to Trump than Joe Biden did in 2020 when he lost by 5.6 points. It’s my belief that if Harris can get within, say, four points, we will be at a point where Texas will be seen not just as an opportunity for Democrats, but a priority. Well, maybe my hope. But the closer we get, the harder it will be to deny. Also, I’ll be looking to see if Colin Allred outperforms Harris, and on the flip side if Ted Cruz can outperform Donald Trump. I know what the polls have mostly said so far, I’m just not sure I believe them.
2. I expect Dems to easily win Harris County – among other things, as you know, we ain’t getting anywhere close to being competitive statewide without a big win here. I’m hoping it’s big enough to be sufficient to carry the many Appellate Court candidates, mostly incumbents, to victory. We’ll need a big turnout today to make the HCDP goal of 1.1 Democratic votes in the county a possibility. I dunno about that one.
3. I absolutely do not expect the HISD bonds to pass. I won’t be surprised if they fail to get 40%. I think the Harris County proposal will pass, but it’s low enough profile that it could struggle.
4. I hope Dems can pick up three legislative seats net to deny Greg Abbott a voucher majority. The five topline seats in Bexar, Dallas, and Cameron are enough, though if the Republicans flip HD80 it takes all five to be sure. Holding on to SD27 would also be very nice.
5. Flipping CD15 is possible but not something I’m counting on. Cutting the margin in the likes of CD24 and CD03 to put them on the radar for 2026 would be big; doing the same for CDs 21, 22, and 38, just enough to make them possible down-the-road targets would be amazing.
6. I really, really want ARFA to win that referendum in Amarillo. It seems like such an uphill battle in obviously difficult territory, but I have a ton of respect for what the leaders of that fight have done. I have no idea how hopeful to be about this.
7. Beyond that, again, let me see progress. Can we carry Tarrant County? How about Collin County? Can we make Brazoria County a slightly bluer shade of purple? Can we hold the margins in places like Montgomery and Comal to what they were in 2020?
8. Last but certainly not least, I’d like to eventually be able to go to bed tonight with at least some idea of where the Presidential race is. And, you know, for Kamala Harris to be comfortably leading. I’ll worry about the rest of it later.
That’s what I’ll be thinking of today. What about you?
I’ve been following this blog since the very early 2000s, through some very red cycles and then some very blue cycles in Harris County. This is a big election. I thought I should say thank you for your hard, smart, realistic, and consistently hopeful work for more than 20 years. Thank you, Kuff. Hoping for the best possible news today and in the days to come.