Precinct analysis: In my neighborhood

I won’t have access to a Harris County canvass for a couple of weeks, and I may or may not do some countywide comparisons, but I did wonder about how the vote went in my neighborhood. I do a lot of walking, I cover the basic area on foot or on bike pretty regularly, and at least at a vibes level things looked a lot like 2020. Lots of Harris and anti-Trump signs, and the small number of pro-Trump signs were just about all in the same yards as they were four years ago. Nothing to make me think that things right around me were any different.

But there’s vibes and there’s data, and it’s easy enough to look at the canvass returns on the Harris County Clerk website to see what the actual deal was in Precincts 0003 and 0004, where I do most of my walking. Here’s the story the numbers told:


Year     Dem     Rep   Other   Under   Total
============================================
2024   2,840   1,190      63      89   4,182
2020   2,307     956      70      37   3,370
2016   1,658     553     186     145   2,542
2012   1,316     935      82      22   2,355

Year     Dem     Rep   Other   Under
====================================
2024  67.91%  28.46%   1.51%   2.13%
2020  68.47%  28.37%   2.08%   1.10%
2016  65.22%  21.75%   7.32%   5.70%
2012  55.88%  39.70%   3.48%   0.93%

Allred 2,930  70.06%
Cruz   1,145  27.38%
Other     79   1.89%
Under     28   0.67%

A few caveats up front. Voting precincts get redrawn every ten years as well, so this comparison is by nature apples to oranges. I don’t have a map of the pre-2021 boundaries to do a comparison, but I can tell you that as far as registered voters goes, Precinct 0004 is more or less the same while Precinct 0003 now has slightly more than double what it had before. This is why there were so many more votes cast between 2020 and 2024.

That difference could have been even greater, except that in 2020 nearly every voter in both precincts turned out. I mean, 98.94% turnout in 0003, 90.60% in 0004. That’s why there were so many more votes cast in 2020 than in 2016 and 2012. In the other three years listed, turnout for the two precincts combined was in the mid-to-upper 70s. Good, but not world-beating.

That of course is a significant difference in its own right – some nontrivial number of people showed up exclusively in 2020. We can speculate about the reasons for that, but note that the outlier is 2020. Those precincts were the same as in 2016 and 2012, but the voter behavior was quite different. Please incorporate that fact into any hot takes you may have about this year. Note also that even with the extreme variation in turnout, the percentages from 2020 and 2024 are nearly the same.

I originally intended to just do the three Trump years, but then I got curious and threw in 2012 as well. I’m now glad I did, because you can see another stark difference from that year to the subsequent ones. The blue shift in affluent white areas happened here too. Good to know, but not too surprising. I’m pretty sure I know who a few of those Romney-but-not-Trump voters are.

“Other” includes Libertarian, Green, and write-in candidates. There were 18 such votes cast for Evan McMullin in 2016. Outside of that, I could have counted them on my hands and had plenty of fingers left over.

I calculate the percentages including the undervotes, which is not how they would show up on an official report. Normally, we use the votes cast in the race as the denominator. If I did that here, Hillary Clinton gets 69.17% of the votes, while Joe Biden gets 69.21%, which is as insignificant a difference as you can imagine. But I felt that the undervotes tell a story as well, so I included them. Feel free to argue with me about that in the comments.

The bottom line is that at least in my neighborhood, the Kamala Harris/Donald Trump race was nearly identical to the Joe Biden/Donald Trump race, at least as far as percentages go. Turnout was different, but again that was a function of 2020 being unusual, not 2024. If the rest of the country voted like my two precincts here, the current discourse would not be the same. So it goes.

I threw in the Senate race for 2024 at the bottom for grins. As observed elsewhere, there were some Trump/Allred voters in my neighborhood. If I ever find myself talking to one of them, you can bet I’ll have questions.

That’s it for now. I’ve got a couple more posts that don’t depend on the full canvass queued up, and I’ll do more of these when that canvass is available. And as I feel like it. Let me know if you have any questions.

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13 Responses to Precinct analysis: In my neighborhood

  1. David Fagan says:

    You should do a friendly interview with your neighbors who voted for Trump. After Trump was shot, the news people interviewed individuals who appeared like normal, level headed people and no over the top supporters. During other rallies, news interviewers tended to find the attendants who looked like they were going to the Super Bowl instead. Democrats believe this race was going to be run on reproductive rights, if all these people are numbers people, like this blog post, and they believe that statement, they shouldn’t believe they’re wrong. Possibly, just possibly, reproductive rights WERE a major issue for voters, and maybe, just MAYBE, the difference between the popular vote included women of all races and backgrounds and NOT the racist white men that are apparently wondering around in the deep woods of society. With such a massive difference in the popular vote, Democrats would be hurting themselves if they believed this race was won based on racism and misogyny. Millions and millions of voters cannot be who the media tries to say they are, I don’t believe that portrayal.

  2. Meme says:

    David, a huge number of Trump voters are racists, and white people are not the only racists. Misogynists come in all shades and ethnicities.

    It was not that long ago that the HFD (I believe you are or were a member of that group) was in the news for;

    “There is no place in the workplace for the type of egregious sexual harassment that these two female Houston firefighters suffered in this case, and the retaliation one firefighter endured after she complained is intolerable and unlawful. Sexual harassment and retaliation of this kind artificially slam shut the doors of equal employment opportunity for women who work in jobs historically dominated by men,” said Assistant Attorney General Eric S. Dreiband

  3. Flypusher says:

    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/09/us-voters-kamala-harris-donald-trump-republican

    Some misogyny, but a whole lot of economic ignorance. You don’t need a PhD in economics to figure out that the things that Trump and Musk promised on the campaign trail will screw over all those non-wealthy voters.

  4. David Fagan says:

    It’s 74,850,000 people, at what time does assigning econimic ignorance, misogyny, and racism are personal biases for why one person won over the other and not the true reasons why? Because if you ask those people why they voted the way they did, which it looks like the Dems failed at doing, I’m sure there would be a wide range of reasons. So, I’m not buying the characterization of almost 75 million American voters and don’t agree with it.

    I would be interested in why people voted for Kamala Harris as well, because they may actually answer that the fear of racism and misogyny would be a factor, so who are those characterizations actually used to influence? Republican voters or Democrat voters?

  5. Meme says:

    Only you David are saying all, so among them there are no racists, bigots, or misogynistic? Yeah and Musk will have us going to Mars and back in four years.

    You believe what you want, I would never vote for a person like Trump, he is a disgrace to humanity.

    The criminal, rapist won enjoy it.

  6. meme says:

    David, if I voted my pocketbook, I would vote for Trump. I did fine with Trump the first time, and the policies he lists are also suitable for me. Character means a lot to me, and I would never vote for Trump or someone like him. Your standards are different, David. I have stated that I don’t mind watching the demise of this country if it comes to that. My years on this earth are numbered, and one more experience to add to the many would be a great way to end this short life we are given.

  7. Flypusher says:

    The main reason I voted for Harris is that I could have expected her to respect and protect the Constitution and to abide by the law. Trump has stated quite clearly that he does not intend to do that. There are other differences in issues I could list, but that is the overriding one.

  8. David Fagan says:

    Cash in some stock and go to Yellowstone for a life experience. No matter if you’re Trump, Harris, Biden, Obama, or Bush, people don’t get such a powerful position as there US President for being an angel, they all owe someone and those people will cash in. Won’t matter if they’re a woman, man, or any race of human being, it takes a lot of money to get there.

  9. Flypusher says:

    I’ve seen lots of BSAB excuses, but this one is as big a reach as I’ve ever witnessed.

    I expect no one in politics to be as pure as the driven snow. But I also expect open toxic waste dump to be a red line for anyone with some semblance of ethics.

  10. David Fagan says:

    But, an ethical toxic waste dump that won’t step aside for huge donors after being elected a presidential candidate by their constituency. There are obvious and huge issues in both parties and the only way to make them better is for more viable choices, but that is only theoretical, because it’s not happening. So, make your choice between a turd and a pile of trash, but those are the only choices you have. I would love to vote for an ethical Angel, but they don’t make it that far before they are consumed by the animals.

  11. meme says:

    I voted for Jimmy Carter.

  12. Mainstream says:

    I am blown away that Precinct 3 had 98% turnout in 2020! Possible explanations:
    younger and more recent registrations, so a more accurate voter list; general education and wealth levels are high; effective campaign efforts; or voters thought it really mattered. Wish we had that level of civic engagement across the board. My area of Timbergrove was only 85% in 2020, and only 78% this year, although our voter rolls have lots of folks who have moved or died.

  13. Meme says:

    David, I have visited almost all of the National Parks, including Yellowstone. However, Zion National Park is more to my liking.

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