After Houston ISD’s historic bond failure in November, several parents, teachers and community members are wondering if or when the state’s largest school district will go back to voters to place another measure on the ballot.
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Some bond opponents have said they want HISD to develop and propose a new bond at a later date — potentially as early as May 2025 — that includes more community input and transparency, a smaller price tag and a narrower focus on security upgrades and improvements to HVAC systems.
“If they come back with something that truly just meets urgent needs … in the next six to 12 months, I think there would be a lot of support behind something, as long as those numbers make some sense and there could be explanations behind those numbers,” HISD parent Heather Golden said.
After the election, Miles said he didn’t know when HISD would place another bond on the ballot, and he needed to get input from the Board of Managers before deciding. The board would need to vote to place a bond on the ballot by Feb. 14 if the district wanted to hold an election in May, according to the Texas Secretary of State.
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Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said that it would be risky for HISD to put a bond back on the ballot in May for several reasons, including an “air of conservatism” among Harris County voters about the economy and their personal budgets.
“Tougher economic times means fewer bonds pass,” Rottinghaus said. “People don’t want to raise their own taxes, even if it means they’re going to get something in the future as a result. Most of the time these bonds pass, but in the rare instances where they don’t, it tends to be a financial question that’s at play, so that definitely is worrisome.”
Until this year, HISD’s only bond failure in the past three decades had occurred in May, due largely to low turnout and a Republican-led campaign against a proposed tax increase. Afterward, the district proposed four consecutive school bond elections during November elections, which all succeeded.
Rottinghaus said that it’s unlikely that voters’ opinions on the economy or district leadership will change much in the next six months, but they may shift in future years. He said a bond election further down the road would be easier for the district to win, particularly if the bond is smaller and developed with more community input.
“This was a protest vote against HISD and its leadership,” Rottinghaus said. “Since it’s been exercised by voters, it may be that they feel differently when they look at a different set of bond issues, and assess where their schools are. My sense is probably it gets easier from here, if HISD handles it well and if they can shape the bond in a way that’s more appealing to people.”
However, the biggest hurdle for HISD leaders may not be partisan politics or economic concerns, but overcoming voter opposition to the state takeover and Miles if they hope to pass a bond while the intervention remains in place.
In interviews outside polling locations, dozens of voters told the Chronicle they voted against the bond because they had lost faith in Miles’ leadership, particularly after rising principal and teacher turnover.
“Given the many conversations I’ve had over the last few days and months, I feel like the sentiment is very much that the public wants an elected board to be accountable for bond funds,” said Judith Cruz, co-chair of HISD’s bond community advisory committee. “I can’t speak for voters, but given those conversations, it seems unlikely that they would support a bond until that happens.”
With all due respect to Prof. Rottinghaus, I think Judith Cruz has the right explanation here. “No trust no bond” was about Mike Miles, the takeover, and the lack of voice people rightly believe they have in their school district. Believe me when I say I know many, many people who were fervently against the bond. They were overwhelmingly Democrats and they were mad as hell about Mike Miles. I’m also a Harris County Democratic Party precinct chair, and that resolution to oppose the bond passed with zero “no” votes.
My point here is that it was Democratic opposition that doomed the bond, not some “air of conservatism” or whatever. I don’t have the full canvass for the 2024 election yet but I do have it for 2012, the last time HISD passed a bond and conveniently also a Presidential election year. I can tell you that in the 2012 election in HISD, which I remind you is a subset of Harris County, President Obama got 64.5% of the vote, fifteen points higher than the 49.4% he got countywide. I’m willing to bet that when I get the full canvass, I will find that Kamala Harris did at least as well as that. Democrats voted this bond down, and they voted it down because they do not like and do not trust Mike Miles. It’s really that simple.
Does that mean that a May 2025 bond, presumably a smaller one, is doomed? Not necessarily. Maybe Mike Miles will be visited by some ghosts over the Christmas break who will convince him to change his ways before it’s too late. Maybe the Board of Managers will grow a spine and insist on some changes that would placate the anti-Miles majority as part of a new bond package. Maybe Miles will declare victory and announce his departure at the end of the 2024-25 school year. Maybe a smaller and more focused bond, combined with stronger oversight and community involvement plus a campaign that better communicates what the bond will do, can drag itself across the finish line. I trust you can see what the common denominator of all these scenarios is. Bottom line, a bond referendum and campaign that addresses the reasons why it failed in 2024 has a chance to pass in 2025. Otherwise it will be a waste of time and effort.
Judith Cruz, yeah, the white progressives put her in there; HISD deserves to die and be broken up into pieces.
Oh, and the MAGA crowd loved her so much that they kept appointing her to various positions.