PREVIOUSLY:
The US Senate race between Colin Allred and Ted Cruz was easily the best Democratic result, the race most like 2020, with Allred winning by over 11 points and 175K votes. The precinct numbers reflect this margin of victory.
Dist Cruz Allred Lib
================================
CD02 95,297 76,547 4,302
CD07 60,642 111,240 4,184
CD08 67,688 77,264 4,500
CD09 30,612 100,204 3,309
CD18 57,733 158,630 6,010
CD22 16,180 12,878 809
CD29 50,652 97,814 4,851
CD36 89,929 65,039 4,342
CD38 197,294 142,168 8,500
SBOE4 135,984 343,561 13,206
SBOE6 304,295 300,535 16,008
SBOE7 1,684 5,008 159
SBOE8 224,064 192,680 11,434
SD04 72,809 56,096 3,339
SD06 66,684 121,768 6,095
SD07 201,517 158,019 9,861
SD11 75,542 50,924 3,461
SD13 35,866 137,819 4,519
SD15 112,446 214,583 8,210
SD17 73,548 72,071 3,578
SD18 27,615 30,504 1,744
HD126 44,604 34,116 2,140
HD127 50,398 40,809 2,242
HD128 43,805 22,386 1,729
HD129 48,514 37,488 2,377
HD130 59,084 32,757 2,403
HD131 9,941 34,639 1,215
HD132 49,462 41,997 2,493
HD133 39,664 36,955 1,765
HD134 36,260 64,967 1,982
HD135 26,189 36,543 2,067
HD137 10,970 18,233 852
HD138 38,205 35,522 1,960
HD139 16,401 43,009 1,586
HD140 10,071 18,872 1,062
HD141 7,930 30,191 1,135
HD142 14,174 37,790 1,371
HD143 13,787 22,981 1,198
HD144 18,328 21,547 1,332
HD145 17,646 41,896 1,833
HD146 11,668 44,215 1,291
HD147 13,771 51,296 1,649
HD148 21,596 30,292 1,507
HD149 19,089 27,879 1,492
HD150 44,470 35,404 2,126
CC1 94,091 278,886 9,200
CC2 137,490 154,671 8,948
CC3 280,901 219,016 12,927
CC4 153,545 189,211 9,732
JP1 80,651 167,084 6,385
JP2 33,631 44,047 2,357
JP3 51,675 64,133 3,056
JP4 220,469 194,564 10,989
JP5 190,700 214,396 11,279
JP6 7,925 24,025 1,139
JP7 17,783 90,705 2,610
JP8 63,193 42,830 2,992
HISD 135,874 325,086 11,680
Else 530,153 516,698 29,127
Dist Cruz% Allred% Lib%
================================
CD02 54.10% 43.45% 2.44%
CD07 34.44% 63.17% 2.38%
CD08 45.28% 51.69% 3.01%
CD09 22.82% 74.70% 2.47%
CD18 25.96% 71.33% 2.70%
CD22 54.17% 43.11% 2.71%
CD29 33.03% 63.79% 3.16%
CD36 56.44% 40.82% 2.73%
CD38 56.69% 40.85% 2.44%
SBOE4 27.59% 69.71% 2.68%
SBOE6 49.01% 48.40% 2.58%
SBOE7 24.58% 73.09% 2.32%
SBOE8 52.32% 44.99% 2.67%
SD04 55.05% 42.41% 2.52%
SD06 34.27% 62.58% 3.13%
SD07 54.54% 42.77% 2.67%
SD11 58.13% 39.19% 2.66%
SD13 20.12% 77.33% 2.54%
SD15 33.54% 64.00% 2.45%
SD17 49.29% 48.30% 2.40%
SD18 46.12% 50.95% 2.91%
HD126 55.16% 42.19% 2.65%
HD127 53.93% 43.67% 2.40%
HD128 64.49% 32.96% 2.55%
HD129 54.88% 42.41% 2.69%
HD130 62.68% 34.75% 2.55%
HD131 21.71% 75.64% 2.65%
HD132 52.64% 44.70% 2.65%
HD133 50.59% 47.14% 2.25%
HD134 35.13% 62.94% 1.92%
HD135 40.41% 56.38% 3.19%
HD137 36.49% 60.65% 2.83%
HD138 50.47% 46.93% 2.59%
HD139 26.88% 70.50% 2.60%
HD140 33.56% 62.89% 3.54%
HD141 20.20% 76.90% 2.89%
HD142 26.57% 70.84% 2.57%
HD143 36.31% 60.52% 3.16%
HD144 44.48% 52.29% 3.23%
HD145 28.75% 68.26% 2.99%
HD146 20.40% 77.32% 2.26%
HD147 20.64% 76.88% 2.47%
HD148 40.44% 56.72% 2.82%
HD149 39.38% 57.52% 3.08%
HD150 54.22% 43.17% 2.59%
CC1 24.62% 72.96% 2.41%
CC2 45.65% 51.36% 2.97%
CC3 54.77% 42.70% 2.52%
CC4 43.55% 53.67% 2.76%
JP1 31.73% 65.74% 2.51%
JP2 42.01% 55.02% 2.94%
JP3 43.47% 53.95% 2.57%
JP4 51.74% 45.66% 2.58%
JP5 45.79% 51.48% 2.71%
JP6 23.95% 72.60% 3.44%
JP7 16.00% 81.63% 2.35%
JP8 57.95% 39.28% 2.74%
HISD 28.74% 68.77% 2.47%
Else 49.26% 48.01% 2.71%
As noted before, there were two write-in candidates, who combined for 296 total votes, for less than 0.02% of the vote. This is why the percentages don’t quite add up to 100.
Those percentages look a lot better here, with comfortable if not dominant wins in HD144 and CC2. Indeed, if this were the norm across the board, we’d be talking about pickup opportunities in HDs 132, 133, and 138, and dreaming about a couple of other possibilities down the road.
But this wasn’t the norm. No other countywide or statewide candidate won by as many as 100K votes this time around – indeed, multiple judicial candidates didn’t win or carry Harris County this year – while only three candidates in 2020 failed to top the 100K margin of victory. We’ve covered that, I’m not going to get into it again here (though I will talk more about it going forward), but it is worth asking why Allred so outperformed everyone else. What was his secret?
There are two obvious possibilities. One is that people liked Colin Allred and responded well to his campaign. The other is that people disliked Ted Cruz and responded negatively to his campaign. It’s really not any more complicated than that.
Just because it’s a simple question doesn’t mean there’s an easy answer. If the main factor is Ted Cruz’s loathesomeness – let’s face it, plenty of the people who vote for Ted Cruz don’t like him – that doesn’t help us much going forward. He’s not scheduled to be on the ballot again until 2030, unless he runs for President in 2028 (I really don’t want to think about that), and he’s just one guy in one race. While there were plenty of Republicans who didn’t vote for Ted Cruz, they still mostly if not entirely voted Republican otherwise. How does that help us?
Well, Cruz is not the only Republican for whom some number of Republicans won’t vote. That was very true for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 – indeed, as I have said on multiple occasions, you can’t explain the Democratic flips of CDs 07 and 32 and House districts like HD134 without there being a whole lot of Republicans who stopped voting Republican at all because of Donald Trump. There was still a little of that this year, though not nearly as much and what was there was offset by some Democrats flipping as well. Ken Paxton, Dan Patrick, and Sid Miller in both 2018 and 2022, and Greg Abbott in 2022, all ran behind other Republicans. Some of that gets overlooked, especially in 2022, because of the overall Republican margins, but the fact that there were crossovers remains. If and when we get into a better environment, one more like 2018 or 2020, that may be much more consequential.
And maybe this is obvious, but the difference between a Ken Paxton and a Glenn Hegar or a Christi Craddick is one of style and tone more than substance. On pretty much all of the big issues, there’s no difference between any of their positions. It’s just that Paxton and Patrick et al are louder and prouder and more up front and obnoxious about it. My point here is that there’s nothing stopping us from trying to tie the more normie Republicans to their more out there and less liked brethren. It’s a basic campaign tactic, but one that tends to get put aside in favor of more positive and issue-oriented ads. Nothing wrong with that in the abstract, but it feels to me like we’re out of balance in the mix of positive ads versus negative and attack ads, which do work despite voter protestation that they don’t like them. I don’t think we do nearly enough of this.
We should also not lose sight of the ways in which Colin Allred might have been successful in moving voters to his side. I’m sure his campaign has plenty of data about what of their tactics and strategies worked and what did not. The TDP has done “autopsies” of past elections before, but it’s not clear to me that we’ve ever really talked to losing-but-overperforming candidates like Allred to ask them what they did that distinguished themselves. Surely there something to be learned from that.
In particular, it would be nice to zoom in a bit on those closer-than-expected State House districts and see what made some number of Republicans there vote for at least one Democrat. I agree, it’s more likely than not that it was about Ted Cruz. But maybe not in total or for all voters. And for crying out loud, how can it hurt to try? We’ve got a lot of work to do here. Let’s not dismiss any potentially viable avenues prematurely.
Anyway, that’s what I have to say about this race. I’ve got more in the works. Let me know what you think.
Getting to 45-46 is very possible in Texas , , Beto , Biden and Allred have done it getting that last 3-5per cent is the question.
Let’s see how 2026 plays out.
Re: “A few percentage points more (the last 3%)”
Just on a mechanical (and mathematical) point:
If you (Dems, or particular candidates) get 48% currently, it would at first glance appear that you need 2% more plus 1 vote to win. But think about it for a moment! It’s actually less if the additional votes are in the nature of conversions, i.e. Republican voters who switch. That’s one vote less on the Republican tally and one more vote on the Dem side. The same, of course, is true in reverse.
It’s different for previous nonvoters or new voters (including those who reached age 18 or acquired citizenship and thus the right to vote). They don’t take away from the opposing party’s total.
BOTTOM LINE: Conversions are twice as valuable as new recruits.
You may think it’s hopeless or too expensive trying to persuade GOP voters to vote for Dems. Even if that’s true (I am not sure), you still have to worry about previous Dem voters switching or defecting to the GOP side. That pattern is also more impactful than Dem voters simply just abstaining. Why? – Because for switchers it’s one vote less for Dems and at the same time one vote more for GOP. As noted, this dynamic works for both parties.
IMPLICATION: If they want to be more effective at the ballot box next time, Dems shouldn’t just worry about “their” supporters sitting it out (not voting) and try to fire them up, they should worry even more about previous supporters going over to the other side. And that will require some acknowledgement of the reasons ordinary people are turned off by the noisiest Democrats, their messages, and what they stand for ideologically.
THE ELECTORATE IS SUBJECT TO DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
But the baseline (prior electoral performance) also requires a caveat because the 47% (or whatever it is) includes voters that won’t be around the next time due to out-migrations and deaths. That too goes for both parties, but there may be skew or a disparity. In other words, Dems and Goppers may be affected at different rates.
And the same goes for newly enfranchised and newly arrived voters in a particular locale.
Wolf, I will bite; provide a link to your site or a new book.
After failing numerous of times, I know what doesn’t work.
Charles:
Consider the possibility that the fight over “school choice/charter school funding” may have exerted a significant influence this time.