Precinct analysis 2024: Railroad Commissioner

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Senate


Dist  Craddick  Culbert      Lib      Grn
=========================================
CD02    99,112   65,117    3,921    3,996
CD07    66,167   95,853    3,751    5,025
CD08    71,653   66,412    3,176    5,058
CD09    31,772   90,778    2,260    4,700
CD18    61,743  139,540    5,594    8,483
CD22    16,983   10,714      706      758
CD29    53,055   84,694    2,793    8,434
CD36    93,185   54,483    3,636    4,175
CD38   209,116  115,654    7,421    7,149
      		
SBOE4  144,116  303,971    9,583   20,025
SBOE6  324,158  250,499   14,084   16,055
SBOE7    1,743    4,598      106      188
SBOE8  232,769  164,177    9,485   11,510
      		
SD04    75,213   47,859    3,051    3,078
SD06    69,664  105,281    3,781   10,180
SD07   212,146  131,261    8,010    9,277
SD11    78,346   42,310    3,019    3,127
SD13    37,147  125,543    3,283    6,336
SD15   122,253  184,683    7,852   10,515
SD17    78,670   60,200    3,043    3,419
SD18    29,347   26,108    1,219    1,846
      		
HD126   46,572   28,491    1,795   2,012
HD127   52,454   34,911    2,101    1,922
HD128   45,069   18,387    1,508    1,485
HD129   50,334   31,533    2,135    2,186
HD130   61,876   26,437    2,156    1,759
HD131   10,161   31,625      713    1,824
HD132   52,402   35,183    2,021    2,351
HD133   43,010   30,091    1,565    1,546
HD134   40,812   54,725    2,086    2,206
HD135   27,597   31,849    1,380    2,572
HD137   11,385   15,880      663    1,162
HD138   40,880   29,366    1,574    1,858
HD139   17,462   38,232    1,406    2,137
HD140   10,497   16,130      540    1,893
HD141    8,196   27,561      753    1,588
HD142   14,911   34,106    1,030    1,943
HD143   14,314   19,773      618    2,148
HD144   19,018   18,188      752    2,121
HD145   19,684   35,133    1,729    2,810
HD146   12,316   40,331    1,058    1,593
HD147   14,989   45,537    1,549    2,519
HD148   22,682   25,448    1,356    2,270
HD149   19,664   24,722      889    1,855
HD150   46,501   29,606    1,881    2,018
      		
CC1    102,345  247,214    8,216   12,470
CC2    142,792  131,392    6,215   12,565
CC3    294,960  182,839   11,217   11,783
CC4    162,689  161,800    7,610   10,960
      		
JP1     89,208  142,105    6,183    8,511
JP2     34,916   37,739    1,476    3,597
JP3     53,273   56,668    2,373    3,670
JP4    230,183  165,212    9,428   10,984
JP5    202,470  182,146    8,592   12,278
JP6      8,410   20,662      730    2,239
JP7     18,768   83,172    1,981    3,670
JP8     65,558   35,541    2,495    2,829
      		
HISD   148,086  283,328   10,295   15,830
Else   554,700  439,917   22,963   31,948

Dist  Craddick  Culbert      Lib      Grn
=========================================
CD02    57.57%   37.83%    2.28%    2.32%
CD07    38.74%   56.12%    2.20%    2.94%
CD08    48.98%   45.39%    2.17%    3.46%
CD09    24.53%   70.09%    1.75%    3.63%
CD18    28.67%   64.79%    2.60%    3.94%
CD22    58.24%   36.74%    2.42%    2.60%
CD29    35.61%   56.85%    1.87%    5.66%
CD36    59.93%   35.04%    2.34%    2.69%
CD38    61.62%   34.08%    2.19%    2.11%
				
SBOE4   30.17%   63.63%    2.01%    4.19%
SBOE6   53.60%   41.42%    2.33%    2.65%
SBOE7   26.27%   69.30%    1.60%    2.83%
SBOE8   55.69%   39.28%    2.27%    2.75%
				
SD04    58.21%   37.04%    2.36%    2.38%
SD06    36.88%   55.73%    2.00%    5.39%
SD07    58.82%   36.39%    2.22%    2.57%
SD11    61.79%   33.37%    2.38%    2.47%
SD13    21.56%   72.86%    1.91%    3.68%
SD15    37.58%   56.77%    2.41%    3.23%
SD17    54.13%   41.42%    2.09%    2.35%
SD18    50.15%   44.61%    2.08%    3.15%
				
HD126   59.05%   36.12%    2.28%    2.55%
HD127   57.40%   38.20%    2.30%    2.10%
HD128   67.82%   27.67%    2.27%    2.23%
HD129   58.40%   36.59%    2.48%    2.54%
HD130   67.09%   28.66%    2.34%    1.91%
HD131   22.92%   71.35%    1.61%    4.12%
HD132   56.99%   38.26%    2.20%    2.56%
HD133   56.43%   39.48%    2.05%    2.03%
HD134   40.88%   54.82%    2.09%    2.21%
HD135   43.53%   50.24%    2.18%    4.06%
HD137   39.14%   54.59%    2.28%    3.99%
HD138   55.48%   39.86%    2.14%    2.52%
HD139   29.48%   64.54%    2.37%    3.61%
HD140   36.12%   55.51%    1.86%    6.51%
HD141   21.51%   72.34%    1.98%    4.17%
HD142   28.68%   65.60%    1.98%    3.74%
HD143   38.84%   53.65%    1.68%    5.83%
HD144   47.45%   45.38%    1.88%    5.29%
HD145   33.16%   59.19%    2.91%    4.73%
HD146   22.27%   72.93%    1.91%    2.88%
HD147   23.20%   70.50%    2.40%    3.90%
HD148   43.82%   49.17%    2.62%    4.39%
HD149   41.72%   52.45%    1.89%    3.94%
HD150   58.12%   37.00%    2.35%    2.52%
				
CC1     27.64%   66.77%    2.22%    3.37%
CC2     48.74%   44.85%    2.12%    4.29%
CC3     58.90%   36.51%    2.24%    2.35%
CC4     47.42%   47.16%    2.22%    3.19%
				
JP1     36.26%   57.76%    2.51%    3.46%
JP2     44.92%   48.55%    1.90%    4.63%
JP3     45.93%   48.86%    2.05%    3.16%
JP4     55.36%   39.73%    2.27%    2.64%
JP5     49.93%   44.92%    2.12%    3.03%
JP6     26.25%   64.49%    2.28%    6.99%
JP7     17.44%   77.30%    1.84%    3.41%
JP8     61.60%   33.40%    2.34%    2.66%
				
HISD    32.37%   61.92%    2.25%    3.46%
Else    52.85%   41.92%    2.19%    3.04%

Whatever the year is, you can generally count on the Democratic candidate for Railroad Commissioner to bring up the rear in the statewide vote count. That’s not a candidate recruitment issue – since 2018, we’ve had a string of well-qualified people run for this office. Our Grady Yarbrough days seem to be behind us, thank goodness. It hasn’t made any difference in the final score.

This is partly because no one knows what the Railroad Commission does and no one knows who’s running for it – there’s just no money raised, at least on the Dem side, for these races. It’s also because of the disproportionate number of third party votes cast in these races. This was a down year for third party candidates overall/ For statewide offices this year, there were only two Green Party candidates, one for President and one for Railroad Commissioner. The Libertarians were slack as well, just those two races plus US Senate and one judicial race. In 2016, by way of comparison, there was a Libertarian and a Green for President, RRC, and five of six judicial races; the sixth had just a Libertarian. In 2020, there were both Libs and Greens for President, Senate, and RRC, with a Libertarian for two of seven judicial races. No idea where they all were this year, but you can see where they weren’t.

Be that as it may, in the Presidential race there were 150K votes cast for an L or a G. In the Railroad Commissioner race, it was 587K votes, nearly four times as many, and that’s with about 400K fewer votes cast in the RRC race. Both Christi Craddick (293K fewer votes than Trump) and Katherine Culbert (560K fewer votes than Kamala Harris) suffered for it, with Culbert getting more of the damage. The Green candidate in this race was a Latino, which as I’ve noted before tends to make things a little worse for the Democratic candidate.

Not that it would have made that much difference had it been Craddick versus Culbert straight up, with Culbert having a few million dollars at her disposal. Dems lost statewide by roughly year-2012 margins for reasons that were mostly about national conditions. But my point, as I made in that post I linked above is that both parties, but Dems more than Republicans, seem to lose votes in the lower-profile races for no particularly good reason to third party candidates. Eight years after I pondered that question, nothing has changed.

I continue to see this as a brand issue, one that Dems don’t take seriously at all, and it’s one that in a better overall year – which, who knows, might be 2026 if we’re about to enter a real shitshow biennium – could be costly at the margins. Given that at least as far as the RRC goes the candidates are not the problem, then to me it’s mostly a matter of money. With a few exceptions, our non-incumbent candidates don’t have the resources to get a message of any kind out to voters. That’s not good for them, and it’s not good for the larger project of giving voters reasons to maybe consider voting for a Democrat.

I wish I had a better answer than “we need more money for more Democratic candidates in more races”, because it’s not prescriptive and no one likes to talk about money in campaigns except to say there’s too much of it. In the aggregate that’s true, but it’s also true that many people like to hear from candidates on their ballot before they’ll consider voting for them, and that doesn’t happen for free. I don’t know what to tell you.

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One Response to Precinct analysis 2024: Railroad Commissioner

  1. Meme says:

    Republicans = low taxes and pro-life.

    Democrats = gay rights and pro-choice

    The above, unfortunately, is how people have learned to see the parties.

    Fifty years of lies by the Republicans with no response from the Democrats has made it so.

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