Precinct analysis: County races 2024 part 1

PREVIOUSLY:

President
Senate
Railroad Commissioner

I’m going to break up the countywide race analyses into two posts, to make my life a little easier. I’m also going to reduce the overall amount of information I’m putting in them, to make it a little easier to read and so I can focus on the main highlights. This post will look at the races for District Attorney and County Attorney. Next up will be Sheriff, Tax Assessor, and HCDE Trustee.


Dist     Simon    Teare    Dist    Simon%   Teare%
==================================================
HD126   47,761   29,439    HD126   61.87%   38.13%
HD127   53,722   35,813    HD127   60.00%   40.00%
HD128   45,910   19,150    HD128   70.57%   29.43%
HD129   51,699   32,738    HD129   61.23%   38.77%
HD130   62,990   27,451    HD130   69.65%   30.35%
HD131   10,822   32,382    HD131   25.05%   74.95%
HD132   53,549   36,510    HD132   59.46%   40.54%
HD133   43,025   31,611    HD133   57.65%   42.35%
HD134   41,009   56,972    HD134   41.85%   58.15%
HD135   28,531   33,004    HD135   46.37%   53.63%
HD137   11,672   16,651    HD137   41.21%   58.79%
HD138   41,482   30,436    HD138   57.68%   42.32%
HD139   18,310   39,500    HD139   31.67%   68.33%
HD140   11,157   16,722    HD140   40.02%   59.98%
HD141    8,682   28,273    HD141   23.49%   76.51%
HD142   15,647   34,870    HD142   30.97%   69.03%
HD143   15,114   20,396    HD143   42.56%   57.44%
HD144   19,724   18,880    HD144   51.09%   48.91%
HD145   20,705   37,183    HD145   35.77%   64.23%
HD146   12,967   41,335    HD146   23.88%   76.12%
HD147   15,670   47,291    HD147   24.89%   75.11%
HD148   23,700   26,757    HD148   46.97%   53.03%
HD149   20,094   25,468    HD149   44.10%   55.90%
HD150   47,621   30,571    HD150   60.90%   39.10%
        	
CC1    106,312  255,522    CC1     29.38%   70.62%
CC2    148,063  136,468    CC2     52.04%   47.96%
CC3    300,785  189,308    CC3     61.37%   38.63%
CC4    166,403  168,105    CC4     49.75%   50.25%


Dist     Smith  Menefee    Dist   Smith%  Menefee%
==================================================
HD126   47,538   29,093    HD126   62.03%   37.97%
HD127   53,566   35,276    HD127   60.29%   39.71%
HD128   45,804   18,871    HD128   70.82%   29.18%
HD129   51,724   32,171    HD129   61.65%   38.35%
HD130   62,928   26,856    HD130   70.09%   29.91%
HD131   10,816   32,205    HD131   25.14%   74.86%
HD132   53,455   35,987    HD132   59.76%   40.24%
HD133   43,575   30,403    HD133   58.90%   41.10%
HD134   41,168   55,755    HD134   42.47%   57.53%
HD135   28,602   32,671    HD135   46.68%   53.32%
HD137   11,765   16,335    HD137   41.87%   58.13%
HD138   41,662   29,732    HD138   58.36%   41.64%
HD139   18,406   39,143    HD139   31.98%   68.02%
HD140   11,211   16,540    HD140   40.40%   59.60%
HD141    8,819   28,006    HD141   23.95%   76.05%
HD142   15,741   34,574    HD142   31.28%   68.72%
HD143   15,023   20,280    HD143   42.55%   57.45%
HD144   19,806   18,605    HD144   51.56%   48.44%
HD145   20,683   36,672    HD145   36.06%   63.94%
HD146   12,860   41,082    HD146   23.84%   76.16%
HD147   15,642   46,963    HD147   24.99%   75.01%
HD148   23,783   26,347    HD148   47.44%   52.56%
HD149   19,985   25,345    HD149   44.09%   55.91%
HD150   47,469   30,136    HD150   61.17%   38.83%
        	
CC1    106,578  252,985    CC1     29.64%   70.36%
CC2    148,161  134,624    CC2     52.39%   47.61%
CC3    300,642  185,786    CC3     61.81%   38.19%
CC4    166,650  165,653    CC4     50.15%   49.85%

These were the two closest races of the five, with Menefee winning by 1.16 percentage points and 17K votes; Teare won by 1.9 points and 28K votes. The closeness of the races is reflected in the district results, and yes that’s Menefee losing in Commissioners Court Precinct 4. The obvious takeaway here is that Democrats didn’t give themselves a lot of slack when they redrew the Commissioners Court map in 2021. They need to win countywide by a big enough margin to feel comfortable. Which I’m sure everyone was at the time, but here we are now. I believe we can get back to where we were, or at least close to it, but that’s what we need to be working on now.

And while I would really like to have that aggregate cushion, I think the incumbent Commissioners will have a bit of an advantage. Or at least, they’ve got more of their fate in their own hands than most. I have a lot of faith in them. I just don’t want to have to rely on it.

The other positive we ought to have going into 2026 that we didn’t have in 2024 or 2022 is a District Attorney who isn’t going to spend all his time and energy crapping on Democratic judges and Commissioners. I would say one of the best things that could be done for local Dems in 2026 is to have Sean Teare loudly and continuously tout his accomplishments, especially as they pertain to cleaning up the various messes he’s inherited. The more this helps ease up crowding in the jail, the better. Pairing that with funding for an ad campaign to provide a counterpoint to those obnoxious “stop Houston murders” ads, and we’ve got something. That part isn’t on Sean Teare, I’m just saying. But really, just not having that headwind should be beneficial.

Next up will be the next three countywide races. Let me know what you think.

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One Response to Precinct analysis: County races 2024 part 1

  1. Meme says:

    I know that in my neighborhood, the community is very unhappy with Briones. If the lack of service and response from her office doesn’t improve, it would not surprise me if she went the way of Israel Garcia.

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