PREVIOUSLY:
President
Senate
Railroad Commissioner
District Attorney and County Attorney
Last time we looked at the low-performing countywide races for Democrats. This time it’s the three races where Dems did the best. The starting place is exactly where you’d expect it to be, with the Sheriff and two-term incumbent Ed Gonzalez.
Dist Knox Gonzalez Dist Knox%Gonzalez%
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HD126 46,015 31,770 HD126 59.16% 40.84%
HD127 51,925 38,110 HD127 57.67% 42.33%
HD128 44,334 21,211 HD128 67.64% 32.36%
HD129 50,388 34,534 HD129 59.33% 40.67%
HD130 61,347 29,808 HD130 67.30% 32.70%
HD131 10,063 33,556 HD131 23.07% 76.93%
HD132 51,744 38,987 HD132 57.03% 42.97%
HD133 42,951 31,919 HD133 57.37% 42.63%
HD134 40,251 57,908 HD134 41.01% 58.99%
HD135 26,933 35,320 HD135 43.26% 56.74%
HD137 11,369 17,093 HD137 39.94% 60.06%
HD138 40,502 31,998 HD138 55.86% 44.14%
HD139 17,386 40,970 HD139 29.79% 70.21%
HD140 9,700 18,890 HD140 33.93% 66.07%
HD141 8,333 29,060 HD141 22.28% 77.72%
HD142 14,478 36,671 HD142 28.31% 71.69%
HD143 13,253 23,113 HD143 36.44% 63.56%
HD144 18,111 21,077 HD144 46.22% 53.78%
HD145 19,097 39,634 HD145 32.52% 67.48%
HD146 12,565 41,932 HD146 23.06% 76.94%
HD147 14,961 48,257 HD147 23.67% 76.33%
HD148 22,451 28,585 HD148 43.99% 56.01%
HD149 19,191 26,774 HD149 41.75% 58.25%
HD150 46,176 32,651 HD150 58.58% 41.42%
CC1 101,922 262,386 CC1 27.98% 72.02%
CC2 138,812 149,606 CC2 48.13% 51.87%
CC3 291,731 201,907 CC3 59.10% 40.90%
CC4 161,059 175,929 CC4 47.79% 52.21%
Gonzalez was the second-highest performer in 2020, trailing only Joe Biden. He was third-best this time, behind Colin Allred and Kamala Harris. He had a stronger opponent this time around, and this past term saw numerous problems with the jail, in particular with the death of inmates, but none of that dented his appeal. While there have been issues with the jail, overall Sheriff Gonzalez has had a fairly controversy-free tenure, with no big scandals or sustained attacks against him. You never know how long that can last, but as noted before the election of Sean Teare as DA has the potential to make his life a little easier in terms of the jail population, so as long as he can hold up his end of the bargain he should remain in strong position. A bigger question is how much pressure he may come under from the feds if and when Trump ramps up his deport-o-matic; he won’t get any help from the state, that much is for sure.
Dist Dick Cantu Dist Dick% Cantu%
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HD126 46,120 30,190 HD126 60.44% 39.56%
HD127 52,020 36,622 HD127 58.69% 41.31%
HD128 44,574 20,057 HD128 68.97% 31.03%
HD129 50,350 33,445 HD129 60.09% 39.91%
HD130 61,123 28,498 HD130 68.20% 31.80%
HD131 10,087 32,976 HD131 23.42% 76.58%
HD132 51,781 37,680 HD132 57.88% 42.12%
HD133 42,287 31,389 HD133 57.40% 42.60%
HD134 39,509 56,724 HD134 41.06% 58.94%
HD135 27,363 33,969 HD135 44.61% 55.39%
HD137 11,304 16,707 HD137 40.36% 59.64%
HD138 40,131 31,023 HD138 56.40% 43.60%
HD139 17,337 40,064 HD139 30.20% 69.80%
HD140 9,980 17,976 HD140 35.70% 64.30%
HD141 8,118 28,704 HD141 22.05% 77.95%
HD142 14,682 35,588 HD142 29.21% 70.79%
HD143 13,634 21,950 HD143 38.31% 61.69%
HD144 18,371 20,223 HD144 47.60% 52.40%
HD145 18,963 38,508 HD145 33.00% 67.00%
HD146 12,314 41,408 HD146 22.92% 77.08%
HD147 14,596 47,768 HD147 23.40% 76.60%
HD148 22,492 27,585 HD148 44.91% 55.09%
HD149 19,302 26,109 HD149 42.51% 57.49%
HD150 46,176 31,110 HD150 59.75% 40.25%
CC1 100,492 257,758 CC1 28.05% 71.95%
CC2 139,948 143,715 CC2 49.34% 50.66%
CC3 291,357 193,698 CC3 60.07% 39.93%
CC4 160,817 171,102 CC4 48.45% 51.55%
HCDE Trustee Richard Cantu won re-election with 52.5% of the vote and a 74K vote margin, both strong performances for 2024. For reasons I don’t quite understand, Dems have generally overperformed in the At Large HCDE Trustee races – Erica Davis was a top performer in 2020, outdoing her colleague David Brown along the way. Maybe it’s residual trust in the Democratic brand for education, maybe it’s a repudiation to the “Dems don’t vote all the way down the ballot because they get tired” trope, maybe it’s some mysterious force we cannot comprehend or quantify. Whatever it is, Richard Cantu had it as well.
Dist Radack Ramirez Dist Radack% Ramirez%
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HD126 47,653 29,704 HD126 61.60% 38.40%
HD127 53,224 36,273 HD127 59.47% 40.53%
HD128 45,332 19,846 HD128 69.55% 30.45%
HD129 51,425 33,133 HD129 60.82% 39.18%
HD130 63,218 27,514 HD130 69.68% 30.32%
HD131 10,486 32,916 HD131 24.16% 75.84%
HD132 53,768 36,641 HD132 59.47% 40.53%
HD133 44,770 30,149 HD133 59.76% 40.24%
HD134 43,124 54,732 HD134 44.07% 55.93%
HD135 28,417 33,546 HD135 45.86% 54.14%
HD137 11,942 16,448 HD137 42.06% 57.94%
HD138 42,360 29,944 HD138 58.59% 41.41%
HD139 18,155 39,805 HD139 31.32% 68.68%
HD140 10,189 18,013 HD140 36.13% 63.87%
HD141 8,337 28,750 HD141 22.48% 77.52%
HD142 15,012 35,668 HD142 29.62% 70.38%
HD143 13,893 22,023 HD143 38.68% 61.32%
HD144 18,683 20,257 HD144 47.98% 52.02%
HD145 20,376 37,763 HD145 35.05% 64.95%
HD146 13,212 41,074 HD146 24.34% 75.66%
HD147 15,494 47,349 HD147 24.66% 75.34%
HD148 23,282 27,385 HD148 45.95% 54.05%
HD149 19,937 25,850 HD149 43.54% 56.46%
HD150 47,266 31,003 HD150 60.39% 39.61%
CC1 106,876 255,103 CC1 29.53% 70.47%
CC2 142,971 143,204 CC2 49.96% 50.04%
CC3 301,396 189,751 CC3 61.37% 38.63%
CC4 168,312 167,728 CC4 50.09% 49.91%
You may have noticed that the three top countywide performers for Dems in 2024 were the three Latino candidates. As noted above, Ed Gonzalez has his own strong brand, and Dems have tended to do well in HCDE elections, but in a year where Dems struggled more than usual with Latino voters, this stands out. Annette Ramirez faced the best-funded and likely best-known opponent in her race – I would argue that Steve Radack’s name recognition and years as County Commissioner were the reasons he carried Precinct 4 and did as well as he did overall – but she still turned in a credible performance. As with Sean Teare, I think she has an opportunity to make a name for herself and improve the baseline conditions for Dems in Harris County, simply by being more visible and publicizing how her office can help people with their property taxes and other functions. There’s a sweet spot between Paul Bettencourt’s right-wing advocacy and Ann Harris Bennett’s disappearing act that she can aim for, and it’s actually pretty big. I have had the chance to get to know Annette Ramirez over the past year, and I think she has tremendous potential. For this office, which has never had a strong Democratic advocate but has had a string of recent Republicans ranging from bumbling to Bettencourt, that would be a big deal.