The Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund—a political action committee that is building and improving infrastructure to create conditions under which Democrats can win in Texas—released its preliminary breakdown of the 2024 election results. The data analysis, conducted in partnership with Bluebonnet Data, revealed key insights about the November election. Texas experienced a shift towards Republicans, driven in part by both a rightward move among Hispanic voters and what appears (in the data we currently have) to be low Democratic turnout. However, Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred outperformed Kamala Harris, and Texas performed largely in line with its demographics when compared to national trends affecting Democratic vote share.
Top Takeaways:
Hispanic voters were the demographic group that saw the largest shift to the right
It’s likely that registered Democrats voted at lower rates than registered Republicans
Regionally, West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley shifted right the most, but Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth (along with the Rio Grande Valley ) lost the most raw Democratic votes
Ex-Rep. Colin Allred overperformed Vice President Kamala Harris significantly in the Rio Grande Valley and slightly in urban and suburban areas
Despite large losses, Texas performed in line with national trends relative to its demographics
It’s a long and detailed analysis, so go read the rest. I’ve written about the Agave Fund before, but I hadn’t thought about them since then until their press release hit my inbox. I came to similar conclusions about Harris County, they looked at all of the state. It’s still the case that we need to be talking to the people who voted for us in 2020 and then didn’t show up last year as a first priority.