Texas officials fear the state is gravely close to running out of water.
Towns and cities could be on a path toward a severe shortage of water by 2030, data compiled in the state’s 2022 water plan by the Texas Water Development Board indicates. This would happen if there is recurring, record-breaking drought conditions across the state, and if water entities and state leaders fail to put in place key strategies to secure water supplies.
At risk is the water Texans use every day for cooking, cleaning — and drinking.
State lawmakers are debating several solutions, including finding ways to bring new water supply to Texas, and dedicating more money to fix dilapidated infrastructure.
For most other Texans, however, the extent of their knowledge of where water comes from is the kitchen faucet and backyard hose. But behind every drop is a complicated system of sources, laws and management challenges.
So, where does Texas get its water? Who owns it? And why are we running out? Let’s break it down.
It’s a long story, it covers a lot of ground including a bunch of stuff I’ve blogged about here, so read the rest. There’s stuff that can be done, and I do expect the Lege to do some of it. But not all, because that never happens, and given the current federal hostility to renewable energy and the growing demand for power and water from data centers and artificial intelligence and cryptominers, we’re allowing a lot to happen to make things worse. There will still be things that can be done as that happens, but the choices get less appealing and the costs get higher as we go.
That’s all long-term stuff. In the short term, there are other things to be concerned about.
Texas has been in a drought as it often is, but in recent years it sure feels like we’ve been “in” drought more than out of it. Since the start of 2025, Texas has struggled mightily in the rainfall department. With the exception of the Piney Woods and parts of Southeast Texas near Houston, it has been a very, very dry start to the year.
Lubbock, Midland, and El Paso are all having top 15 driest starts to a year, with El Paso seeing less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall so far in 2025. Wichita Falls, Abilene, and San Angelo are all having very dry starts to a year, though not historically so. This has allowed for expansion of drought since the beginning of year, with the beginning stages of a rapid onset drought in the last 10 days or so.
The recent bump in windy, dry storms has helped accelerate this process. According to an early March forecast update from the National Interagency Fire Center, “Confidence is increasing in a high impact spring fire season across the southern Great Plains. The expected weather pattern and its impacts to the fire environment are of major concern, and at least weekly high-end wind events are plausible through March and April.”
So, possibly some immediate crises, and also fire risk. Happy springtime, y’all.
Much of northern Mexico and south Texas are almost desert areas; the desert is expanding and has happened quite often in Earth’s history.
T Bones Pickens started buying water rights decades ago in West Texas; he knew the value of water. He made quite a bit of profit when he did sell those rights.