Rep. Sylvester Turner
After a whirlwind week of campaign announcements, endorsements and articles by national media, voters in Congressional District 18 could be forgiven for thinking Election Day is right around the corner.
In fact, the candidates vying for attention and support still do not know when Election Day will be, though it likely will not be until near the end of the year.
“There isn’t even an election called yet, and (Christian) Menefee has come out with full-blown endorsements and money commitments to set himself up as the frontrunner,” University of Houston political analyst Nancy Sims said last week.
Menefee – the 36-year-old, twice-elected Harris County Attorney – filed as a candidate for the seat the evening of March 15, just hours after the funeral for Congressman and former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner concluded. That decision also triggered a clause in the Texas Constitution forcing his resignation as county attorney.
By the following Monday morning, a New York Times article about his candidacy appeared online and a list of endorsements by well-known local and state Democrats followed soon after. A Houston politico had declared Menefee the “frontrunner” for the race by midday, even though only one other person had made their candidacy known for what is expected to be a crowded ballot.
“I had to move quickly,” Menefee said of the days following Turner’s death on March 5. “I definitely took some time to process and grieve. Sylvester, Congressman Turner, Mayor Turner, was a friend and mentor.”
Menefee was the fastest, but he was quickly joined by Isaiah Martin on Monday. The 26-year-old Democrat ran briefly for the seat in the 2024 cycle, but he dropped out ahead of the Dec. 2023 filing deadline. That short-lived campaign left him with $174,000 in cash on hand for a second bid for the seat.
“We are the cash-on-hand leaders in this race, and we wanted to get out of the gate really quickly to build on that,” Martin said.
Fifth Ward community advocate James Joseph filed for the seat soon after, and former At-Large City Council Member Amanda Edwards announced her candidacy with a press conference Wednesday morning.
“I had to start shifting gears fairly quickly, but the good thing is, I wasn’t starting from scratch in terms of my knowledge of the district and my relationships in the district,” Edwards said. “It was just a matter of getting things together with enough time to launch an effective launch. We had to move pretty swiftly, and for me, it was unexpected.”
Four others – Democrat Kivan Polmis, Republican Cyrus Sanja, Independent Derrell Sherrod Turner and Independent Khristopher Beal – also have filed to run. They are unlikely to be the last to join the race.
At-Large City Council Member Letitia Plummer and state Rep. Jolanda Jones, D-Houston, have released statements saying they are strongly considering whether to join the race.
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At the moment, however, the actual date for the special election to complete Turner’s term remains unknown. The Texas Constitution gives Gov. Greg Abbott the authority to set the election at his discretion. The only restriction is that the special election must be held on a uniform election date at least 36 days after Abbott’s call.
Abbott must call for the election by March 31 for it to be held on the next uniform election date on May 4. The only other uniform election date this year is November 4, and a runoff election will be required the following month if no candidate achieves 50 percent of the vote on Election Day.
Abbott is unlikely to be in a hurry to hold an election in the heavily Democratic district, Sims said. The vacancy grows the narrow GOP majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, giving Congressional Republicans slightly more wiggle room as they work to pass priorities of President Donald Trump, Sims said.
The ongoing session of the Texas Legislature does not end until June 2, and Abbott likewise may hold off to keep any state representatives or senators considering a bid for the seat from being disadvantaged by the work in Austin, Sims added.
“I don’t expect the governor to call for the special election for another month or two,” Sims said.
Despite the uncertainty around Election Day, Sims said the speed of campaign announcements is good political strategy. It gives the candidates more time to raise money, secure endorsements and fend off other would-be challengers.
That speed, however, is frustrating for those waiting to know the details of the election before announcing their own campaigns.
Plummer is subject to the same “resign to run” rule that forced Menefee to give up his seat. While she would like to run, Plummer said she does not want to abandon her position on City Council until she has a clear picture of the state of the race and implored voters to wait to make up their minds about candidates.
Plummer also expressed frustration with Menefee’s campaign and the host of Democratic endorsements he quickly pulled together, a list that includes Precinct 1 County Commissioner Rodney Ellis, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Lee Carter.
“What’s happened … could not have been done in one day,” Plummer said. “That’s all planning. That takes two months to put together, to roll out with this much. That wasn’t planned in one day. That was planned way beforehand, which to me asks the question, did we know something was wrong with Turner? Was he already deemed as the next person to take that seat? And is it really fair for a person to get the nod without asking the community?”
Menefee rejected Plummer’s implication, but acknowledged the political need for a swift launch had made for an awkward start to the campaign for all of the candidates.
“The suggestion that this came before the passing of Sylvester Turner is untrue, it’s unfortunate and I think we should be better than that in our politics,” Menefee said.
See here for the previous update. This is a reminder that filing paperwork with the FEC is not the same as filing to run once the election has been called. We’ll see what the field looks like when that happens. I think I had an earlier “last date for Abbott to call this so it can be had in May” in mind than March 31, but that works for me. I’m glad this article noted that CM Letitia Plummer (and any other Houston City Council member) would have to resign to run as well. I was pretty sure that was the case but hadn’t gone looking for the exact wording of the relevant laws.
As it happens, March 31 is also the fundraising deadline for Q1, so even though I wasn’t planning to take a look at Congressional campaign finance reports in April, I will be doing so for the special election hopefuls. That will only tell us so much – people will have had maybe two weeks tops to raise money – but it will tell us something. By then we’ll also know if we’re in a sprint or a slog.
UPDATE: The Landing story has been updated to say that it is officially too late for Abbott to set this election for May. Shameful, but hardly unexpected.