It’s always entertaining when a candidate gets together with a bunch of bloggers someplace where caffeine and WiFi are served. Chris Bell did so last night at the Daily Grind in the Heights, and we proceeded to have a good conversation. Progressive Texan was among the laptop brigade, and he liveblogged the event. Stace, who has a photo, and The Muse have also written about it so far.
As Progressive texan noted, the first question Bell got was from me about whether he thought Strayhorn or Friedman was the bigger threat to take away Democratic votes from him. Bell clearly believes it’s Strayhorn, and while I continue to worry about Friedman’s cult of personality allure, I can’t argue with that approach. One thing Bell discussed in answering my question was the nature of the polling data that we have so far. As you know, I have some problems with the likely voter models that SurveyUSA is using. I can’t say what Rasmussen and Zogby Interactive are doing, but their results are generally similar to those of SUSA, so my assumption is they’re determining likely voters in a similar way. It’s interesting that none of these three are “traditional” polling outfits. SUSA and Rasmussen use automated call technology, while Zogby is a modified online poll. I keep wondering when an outfit like Gallup will jump in. I’d really love to know how – or if – they differ from the newer style polls.
Be that as it may, we had a loose and lively chat. I recommend you read Stace’s post for Bell’s discussion of immigration – I found it pretty refreshing, and I daresay I wasn’t the only one at the table to think so. I believe Team Bell is planning something like this for the Austin blog crowd soon, which ought to be entertaining.
Finally, on a side note, Bell also got some good reviews from the locals in recent visits to Tyler and Amarillo.
UPDATE: PDiddie weighs in.
UPDATE: Eye on Williamson wasn’t there, but he has a few thoughts anyway.
As Progressive texan noted, the first question Bell got was from me about whether he thought Strayhorn or Friedman was the bigger threat to take away Democratic votes from him. Bell clearly believes it’s Strayhorn….
He may be right, but I’m not sure that’s quite the right way to look at it. The question shouldn’t be “who will take away the most Democratic votes, it should be “who will take away the most net votes?”
I don’t think anyone has a good answer to that question. Strayhorn has been leading Friedman in the polls, so it’s certainly plausible that she’ll take away more Democratic votes from Bell than Friedman will – but it’s also likely that she’ll take more Republican votes from Perry too. Enough to cancel out? I don’t know, and I doubt anyone ever will (unless exit pollsters ask those kinds of what-if questions on Election Day).
Personally, I don’t think it matters. Bell should campaign on his own policy proposals (drawing out the Democratic base) and concentrate his fire on Perry – who’s still the favorite in this race, after all. (Obviously I’d rethink that strategy if Perry’s support started to collapse and Strayhorn or Friedman surged in the polls. That could happen if one of them does surprisingly well in a candidate debate, but for now it seems rather unlikely.)
Sorry I missed it – I should have sent a auto-reminder to myself. I was visiting my brother and sister-in-law in Houston and could have come by afterwards.