You might have noticed that it’s been a quiet hurricane season so far this year. There are good reasons for that, but don’t go drinking all that bottled water just yet.
First, the good news. Scientists had worried about La Nina, unusually cold ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, developing by now. This pattern, which hasn’t yet appeared, has historically augured a fierce Atlantic season.
Additionally, sea surface temperatures remain near average across much of the Atlantic tropics, providing less fuel for hurricanes. That’s partly because of large African dust clouds that have blocked the sunlight and kept a lid on ocean warming. This dust, largely from the Sahara desert, also inhibits storm formation.
“But this year probably isn’t going to be like 2006. I don’t think we’re going to luck out like that,” [Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist with The Weather Underground,] said.
Compared with last year, the disruptive force of wind shear in the atmosphere is lower. Of still greater concern, in the northwest Caribbean Sea as well as parts of the Gulf of Mexico, the warm waters run deeper than even in 2005.
“This means that a storm moving into the western Caribbean and/or the Gulf of Mexico over the next few months may have a good chance of becoming a major hurricane, as long as wind shear is low in the region,” said Chris Hebert, lead hurricane forecaster for the private, Houston-based service ImpactWeather.
Here are some charts from SciGuy, which show how Gulf water temps compare to 2005. If we get one heading this way, it could really intensify. Remember, it’s August when things start to get busy most years.
What worries me isn’t all that stuff as much as it is all the rain we’ve already had. How bad do you think the flooding would be if even a Cat 1 storm hit us right now? Maybe if we have a few dry weeks, I’ll fret less. Until then, that’s what’s bothering me. Let’s hope our lucky streak continues for another year.