Greenberg Quinlan Rossner Research has released a poll that shows some good news for Democrats and Ciro Rodriguez in CD23. I’ve got a copy of the poll memo here (PDF) for your perusal. To summarize:
Congressional Vote Candidate Vote Total for Dem candidates 47% Republican Henry Bonilla 44% Libertarian Cecil Lamb 1% None 2% Undecided 6% Cong Vote Among Dem Candidates (among all general election voters) Candidate Vote Ciro Rodriguez 24% Pete Gallego 11% Albert Uresti 7% Richard Perez 3% Rick Bolanos 1% Virgil Yanta 1%
Gallego is not a candidate, though at the time the poll was taken (August 10-15), he was talked about as a possibility. Lukin Gilliland has now joined the race, and with the money he says he’ll bring, he ought to be a force to contend with. He’s also issued a press release saying that State Rep. Robert Puente of San Antonio is his campaign treasurer, so he’s already got some establishment support. And I’m starting to hear whispers that Lukin Gilliland will have more names behind him than that, so this definitely bears watching.
Both Paul Burka and PerryVsWorld think that Gilliland’s entry into the race makes an eventual runoff more likely. Burka notes that the poll memo “cheerleads” for Ciro, but may help him get some national money. I say the DCCC and any other national group that was planning to throw money into CD22 should take that dough and split it between CDs 23 and 14. Make the Republicans play defense as much as possible, and see if anything good happens. At the very least, be prepared for the runoff that is increasingly probable.
BOR has a complete list of candidates in this and the other special Congressional elections, one of whom will not be former San Antonio Mayor Ed Garza. (How did Ruben Hinojosa in CD15 get lucky enough to lose his only opponent?) Vince adds commentary on all the filers. It’s a pretty crowded field in the 23rd. I hope everyone keeps their fire aimed at Henry Bonilla, and as commenter RBH observes, that someone spends a little time in Medina County. I still think Ciro is the candidate with the best shot to take out Bonilla, but we’ll see how things develop.