Beatty, Jun 22: Trump 37, Clinton 30
UT/TTP, Jun 27: Trump 41, Clinton 33
KTVT/Dixie, Aug 11: Trump 46, Clinton 35
PPP, Aug 16: Trump 44, Clinton 38
WaPo-SurveyMonkey, Sep 6: Clinton 46, Trump 45
ECPS, Sep 14: Trump 42, Clinton 36
Texas Lyceum, Sep 15: Trump 39, Clinton 32
YouGov, Oct 3: Trump 50,1, Clinton 41.5
KTVT/Dixie, Oct 5: Trump 45, Clinton 38
WFAA/SurveyUSA, Oct 14: Trump 47, Clinton 43
UH Hobby Center, Oct 17: Trump 41, Clinton 38
WaPo/SurveyMonkey, Oct 17: Trump 48, Clinton 46
CBS/YouGov, Oct 23: Trump 46, Clinton 43
Crosswind/Statesman, Oct 27: Trump 45, Clinton 38
UT/TT, Oct 27: Trump 45, Clinton 42
KTVT/Dixie Strategies, Nov 2: Trump 52, Clinton 39
NBC/WSJ/Marist, Nov 3: Trump 49, Clinton 40
ECPS, Nov 3: Trump 49, Clinton 34
YouGov, Nov 5: Trump 50,3, Clinton 42.4
Very very very true.
Republicans voting for a Democrat or Democrats voting for a Republican just depends on the race. In this race, Republicans will, indeed, vote for Henley because Henley is a moderate. This is in the same way that Democrats are willing to vote for moderate Republicans.
There are, of course, the non-moderate Republican voters. Most of those are ones that are still voting for Culberson, and that are voting for Perry or Strayhorn.
Republicans for Henley banner spotted in Copperfield on Saturday. Definitely more than just one person.
In this race, Republicans will, indeed, vote for Henley because Henley is a moderate. This is in the same way that Democrats are willing to vote for moderate Republicans.
Right.
So wow us with your political predictive talents, and break down the percentages you expect in this race. That way, we can come back and draw some conclusions as to whether this was wishful thinking or sound analysis.
As for the sign — I think that’s brilliant, actually. I think Republicans ought to adopt the strategy of placing a few “Democrats for X” signs here and there for their candidates. It would be very exciting!
I expect Culberson will still win comfortably, but not as comfortably as in the past. My guess is 57-43 or 56-44.
Kevin, you wow us all with your “prove it to me, big boy” snarkiness. Bet it really bugs you that Henley will do well in this election – I’ll say between 43% – 45%, too. Culberson better get a new act because his Tom DeLay,Jr. routine is old. In 2 years, the voters will send him out of Congress. On rails.
My guess is that the Democrats voting for Culberson will be the anti-rail folk up and down Richmond.
i think henley has real momemtum in a democratic year. I email charlie cook on occassion, and he told me culberson is vunerable. moreso, given the climate, hneley is one of those aggressive 2nd tier candidates that come election night may oust culberson. call me crazy, but if this is the yr of the donkey tidal wave, expect many in the leadership to get tossed.
Non moderate Republicans take Dan Partick’s cue and vote for Kinky but please stop amusing yourself by pretending they vote for Carole Strayhorn.
If conservatives liked her she would have run in the Republican Primary. I was at a Greater Houston Pachyderm lunch last December when they figuratively threw cold water on her because she would not promise to throw immigrant’s children from public school classrooms.
Nonmoderate Republicans liking her is the biggest hogwash I’ve ever heard.
I want to ask someone here though to please tell me why a Democratic nominee for anything would go to any Democratic event after winning, even unopposed, the Democratic nomination last March 7.
Isn’t the aim after becoming the Democratic nomination especially in a still majority Republican county to now focus on asking all the others in your county to vote for you because you already have the Democrat nomination.
Wouldn’t it makes sense the night of March 7th for Democratic nominees to have said see ya to all their fellow Democrats at some Radnofsky party and have spent the rest of the year going out to the audiences they have not gone to before to ask them to vote for them?
In this last couple weeks of the election that was just a thought.
My analysis saying that Republicans will be voting for Henley this race doesn’t conclude that Henley will win. It concludes that Henley will win if some things go right when it all comes down to election day. It means he has a chance.
I read one blog, I think it was PDiddie’s but don’t quote me on that – and the author was stating that his parents, Republican voters ever since they moved to Texas, would be voting for Henley. I also perosnally know Republicans who will vote for Henley, including some parents of former students of Jim’s.
Henley is, in fact, a fiscal conservative. Some Republicans are Republican for that reason, and Culberson’s voting record hasn’t done the best job with that (any pro-Iraq congressman has had trouble with that).
So as mentioned, if there is a political tital wave: Henley could certainly win. If Republicans are discouraged and don’t show up, if Democrats show up in large numbers, and if Henley’s ex-student volunteer army comes up big in these final weeks, then there might be a win.
Speaking of volunteer army, the campaign is doing stuff EVERY SINGLE WEEKEND. They can use your help. Tidal waves don’t happen by chance. They happen with a force. Be part of that force and help the Henley campaign.
aanother smart thing this guy is doing is targeting non-affiliated voters, those who are not primary voters etc.. heck few even know who culberson is in this district.