RG Ratcliffe gets an answer to the question I raised here, namely “How can two polls by the same pollster – John Zogby – give such wildly different results?”
“It’s two different methodologies, and it is comparing apples and oranges,” Zogby said. “The interactive polling tends to get a much more partisan. The Democrats are real Democrats, and the Republicans are real Republicans.”
Zogby said, “You saw Chris Bell doing better in the interactive poll among hyper-partisan Democrats than he did in the telephone survey.”
[…]
Zogby said the two polls simply have to be viewed separately and cannot be compared. But Zogby said he believes the interactive polling may come closer to reflecting the outcome of an election because it is a survey of the most motivated voters.
“We stand by both polls,” Zogby said.
Make of that what you will. All I know is that we’ll get the evidence to judge his methodologies on November 7.
The post includes a podcast interview with Zogby in which he goes into more detail. Kudos to Ratcliffe for pursuing this.
from:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0610/S00493.htm
U.S. Election Fraud 2006 Risk Assessment Update
Tuesday, 31 October 2006, 7:19 pm
Opinion: Michael Collins
PROTECTING THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE 2:
Prospects for a 34 Seat House Pick Up Look Good
Election Fraud and Digital Disruption Take on More Importance
Michael Collins and TruthIsAll
“Scoop†Independent News
Washington, D.C.
See also… 25 October 2006 – Election Fraud 2006 – Quantifying The Risk
Democrats… may end up riding a wave that would give them both a substantial majority in the House — perhaps a win of more than 30 seats, far greater than the 15 seats they need to net for majority control — and a narrow control of the Senate, winning precisely the six seats they need for control, and perhaps even one more.
– Mark Halperin, ABC News Political Director
snip
GENERIC POLLS: The Democrats have won all 110 Generic Polls since September 2005
The following trend analysis is based on the 5-poll moving average based on polls at the PollingReport.Com The margin of error (MoE) for the moving average is 1.41%, assuming a combined sample size of 5000 (1000 per poll). The current Democratic moving average share is 57.8%, assuming a 60% Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) to the Democrats.
Based on the MoE, UVA, current moving average share (and assuming zero fraud) there is a 97.5% probability that the Generic Democratic vote will exceed 56.4%.
These are probabilities that the Democratic generic vote will exceed the given vote share: (article has many charts of combined polls)
…………
Take a tape recorder to record a vote flip.
If you spot improprieties, or have a problem at the polls, be sure to call 1-866-OUR-VOTE, and contact the EDA ( http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/ ), and tell them everything. Keep a written record of your experience.
from:
http://www.bbvforums.org/cgi-bin/forums/board-auth.cgi?file=/8/44824.html
Voting machines in Texas change “Democrat” votes to “Republican”
Jose Ivey
Posted on Tuesday, October 31, 2006 – 08:23 am:
http://www.kfdm.com/engine.pl?station=kfdm&id=17343&template=breakout_dayportvid eo.shtml&dateformat=%M+%e,%Y
Jefferson County Voters Continue To Raise Concerns About Voting Machines
October 28,2006
snip
KFDM continues to get complaints from Jefferson County voters who say the electronic voting machines are not registering their votes correctly.
Friday night, KFDM reported about people who had cast straight Democratic ticket ballots, but the touch-screen machines indicated they had voted a straight Republican ticket.
Some of those voters including Lamar University professor, Dr. Bruce Drury, believe the problem is a programming error.
Saturday, KFDM spoke to another voter who says it’s not just happening with straight ticket voting, he says it’s happening on individual races as well, Jerry Stopher told us when he voted for a Democrat, the Republican’s name was highlighted.
Stopher said, “There’s something in these machines, in this equipment, that’s showing Republican votes when you vote for Democrats, and I know Ms. Guidry’s a nice lady, and she’s working hard, but her theory that my fingernail was somehow over the Republican button is just unrealistic, my fingernail was not. The equipment is not working properly as far as I can tell.”
……….
From:
Online at: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/elections/2006/stories/110106dnmetvoting.4c60d62.html
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Glitch keeps Denton County voter from casting ballot early
Official says it’s fixed; Tarrant suit calls for paper trail
10:30 PM CST on Tuesday, October 31, 2006
By BRANDON FORMBY / The Dallas Morning News
snip
But a snafu with a server for the county’s electronic voting system – and lack of a paper ballot for Ms. Harris’ precinct – made The Colony woman decide not to cast a ballot.
“I know I can go back tonight and vote, but I don’t think any outage is acceptable,” she said.
Ms. Harris’ complaint came on the same day that Tarrant County Democrats filed a lawsuit in federal court challenging electronic voting and its lack of a paper trail.
About 6:15 p.m. Monday, a county server that identifies and qualifies voters went down, so election officials in The Colony gave voters paper ballots. But the paper ballots for Ms. Harris’ precinct weren’t available at The Colony Government Center, only at two locations in Carrollton.
……….
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=3697&print=1
MESS WITH TEXAS: State Rep Reports ES&S Touch-Screens Dropping Candidate Names, Flipping Straight Ticket Ballots from Democratic to Republican in San Antonio!
Audio Interview with Texas State Rep. Jose Menendez on KTSA with Chris Duel (and Brad) Says Paperless Voting Machines Failing in Bexar County…
Posted By Brad On 30th October 2006 @ 23:41
In ES&S, Election Irregularities, Texas, Election 2006, Touch-Screen Vote Hopping |
The drumbeat of reports from around the country of touch-screen voting machines failing during Early Voting continues to grow. These aren’t “glitches.” These are failures.
snip
While I was guesting this evening on the Chris Duel show [6] on KTSA News-Talk 550 AM [7], we received a call from Democratic State Rep. Jose Menendez, who reported several incidents that have come to the attention of his office during Early Voting, which is already under way in San Antonio. The reports concern votes flipping and candidates not showing up on the summary screens of Bexar County’s paperless ES&S touch-screen systems.
During the short interview (audio posted in full at end of this article) Menendez reported an incident involving a teacher in his district who noticed that one of the candidates wasn’t showing up on the confirmation summary screen. I later learned off air that the missing candidate was Menendez.
Another incident involved a voter who voted for a straight party ticket only to have it flip to a straight party ticket vote for the other party.
Menendez didn’t identify which parties were involved while on air. Since then, Duel followed up to let me know that the straight party ticket the voter intended to vote for was Democratic and it flipped to Republican.
Menendez said during the interview that he now plans to file legislation requiring a paper “trail” on all voting machines across the state of Texas where none are (incredibly) now required. As you’ll hear, I made it clear that it’s paper ballots that are needed, not uncountable and uncounted so-called paper “trails.” For the moment, his efforts are unfortunately too little, too late to do anything for 2006. While he may not have realized the dangers to our democracy and national security until now, Bexar County Election Administrator Jacquelyn F. Callanen has no such excuse. She needs to be held directly accountable for her failure to provide an auditable voting system to her voters.
Callanen, however, seems to be selling Menendez and other concerned citizens the usual bill of goods, as most of the country’s election directors are now doing in hopes of saving their jobs. I pointed out in no uncertain terms, hopefully, on air during the interview, that Callanen needs to be held accountable. Her office’s number is: 210-335-VOTE, and their webpage is here [8]. Here’s the interview…
– AUDIO: Brad on the Chris Duel Show with Rep. Mendendez [9], 10/30/06 [MP3, Appx 16 minutes]
________________________________________
Article printed from The BRAD BLOG: http://www.bradblog.com
URL to article: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=3697
snip
[5] Dallas: http://hammeroftruth.com/2006/10/25/message-from-concerned-diebold-voter/
[6] Chris Duel show: http://www.ktsa.com/pages/14678.php?
[7] KTSA News-Talk 550 AM: http://www.ktsa.com/
[8] their webpage is here: http://www.bexar.org/elections/
[9] Brad on the Chris Duel Show with Rep. Mendendez: http://www.BradBlog.com/Audio/ChrisDuel_Brad_JoseMenendez_103006.mp3
[10] Details here…: http://www.bradblog.com/?p=3701
………..
from:
http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2006/11/miami-herald-in-denial.html
Miami Herald in denial
From R. Miller:
Notice how the Miami Herald characterizes the current rash of e-voting “glitches” (which, as ever, seem to favor just the GOP):
http://tinyurl.com/wra92
“After a week of early voting, a handful of glitches with electronic voting machines have drawn the ire of voters, reassurances from elections supervisors — and a caution against the careless casting of ballots.”
Note how the reporters downplay the problem…and then end up *blaming the voters.* A “caution” against the “careless” casting of ballots? Indeed! No one should cast their vote without care…everyone should double check in order to ensure none of these “handful” of glitches are what decide the election!!
…………….
http://www.hbo.com/docs/programs/hackingdemocracy/index.html
Hacking Democracy
This cautionary documentary exposes the vulnerability of computers – which count approximately 80% of America’s votes in county, state and federal elections – suggesting that if our votes aren’t safe, then our democracy isn’t safe either. Premieres Thursday, November 2 at 9pm.
……………….
http://www.bbvforums.org/cgi-bin/forums/board-auth.cgi?file=/1954/44854.html
Airs Nov. 2 on HBO at 9 pm Eastern (check local listings)
New York Times: “Rigged voting in Louisiana? Say it ain’t so. But it’s not shocked-shocked you feel watching this; it’s genuine shock. As the drama proceeds, adducing more evidence for the unreliability of the voting machines than can possibly be explored here, you might also feel flattened. Computers count around 80 percent of votes in America. The marketing director for Diebold, Mark Radke, who defends both the company and its chief executive … talks in maddening doublespeak and wears the arched-eyebrow expression of a silent-movie fiend. His Nixon-era nondenial denials turn the stomach.
Boston Herald — Grade: A — “The thought of watching a documentary on possible voting fraud may sound as appealing as, say, a PBS special on mushroom farming (say, is it pledge week yet?), but “Hacking Democracy” (tonight at 9) unravels like a “24” episode…
TV Guide: Shocking HBO Film Rocks the Voting Process — shocking revelations about the vulnerability of the software and hardware.
Baltimore Sun: The premium cable channel hits it out of the park again with “Hacking Democracy”, a timely and chilling look at alarming problems in the way our votes are counted. It is hard to imagine any network or cable channel offering a documentary this season that is more important to the civic life of the nation — let alone one that is so compelling and ultimately moving.
For links to these and dozens more reviews, go to Google News — http://news.google.com/nwshp?ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&tab=wn&q= — and enter the search term “Hacking Democracy”
What Black Box Voting hopes will result from this film: More citizen involvement, and in the short term, citizen oversight through use of video cameras and public records for the Nov. 7 election. For tips on how to oversee and gather evidence on Nov. 7, use the Citizens Tool Kit: http://www.blackboxvoting.org/toolkit.html
……………
And now maybe everyone can get on board because of the following which may or may not be a problem but could be a problem…could…
But, it could provide the GOP with some face saving bipartisan story as all then do the right thing to put evidence back into elections….Or, an opportunity to even try to blame Democrats while the GOP continue to game an unaccountable system which is in their control.
from:
http://www.bbvforums.org/cgi-bin/forums/board-auth.cgi?file=/1954/44823.html
Citizens — not scientists or certifiers or testing lab authorities — identified the problem and have now notified the California secretary of state, and emergency measures are reportedly being taken in California, but not yet in Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, or any other state using Sequoia Voting Systems, the third-largest voting system vendor in the U.S.
An extraordinary Southern California citizen, Ron Watt, verified the security problem, which Black Box Voting will explain in detail below. The California secretary of state was formally notified by the California citizens.
The California Secretary of State’s office followed up on a conference call among Bruce McDannold (Sec. State’s office), Riverside citizen Tom Courbat, and Tehama County citizen Ron Watt on Friday Oct. 28.
After hearing what these citizens revealed, the Sec. State had Sequioa demonstrate the process which, in effect, allows any citizen to cast multiple votes
Sequoia agreed it could be done, but claimed it would be difficult to do unnoticed (they focused more on voters doing it than the idea of an insider doing it)
The Secretary of State contacted every California county that uses Sequoia and confirmed with them that they were indeed aware of this feature.
California counties are to inform all their poll workers of this and instruct them to be very vigilant during the Election Day to anyone spending too much time in the booth, or reaching around to the back of the machine where the button is located. Poll workers are supposed to be instructed to listen for a beeping sound made when the yellow button is pressed.
The Secretary of state is reportedly going to require increased signage regarding criminal penalties for tampering with voting equipment are to be prominently displayed on every machine.
Additional steps should be considered, and Sequoia now has joined Diebold as a company that produces provably insecure voting systems that should be recalled. Both the WinEDS central tabulator deployed by Sequoia and the Sequoia touch-screens with the yellow buttons are insecure.
While it may be caught if extra votes are entered using the yellow button hack, which ones would be thrown out if there are too many?
……………
from:
Mark Crispin Miller
http:// http://www.washingtonspectator.c…rintArticle.cfm
Chance, accident, imperial over-reaching and/or popular resistance can thwart the best-laid plans. If that should happen, though, the (Republican) party has a plan to fix the problem; and the press’s eerie silence on the danger of election fraud could help that strategy succeed.
If the GOP should lose the House or Senate, its troops will mount a noisy propaganda drive accusing their opponents of election fraud. This is no mere speculation, according to a well-placed party operative who lately told talk radio host Thom Hartmann, off the record, that the game will be to shriek indignantly that those dark-hearted Democrats have fixed the race. We will hear endlessly of Democratic “voter fraud” through phantom ballots, rigged machines, intimidation tactics, and all the other tricks whereby the Bush regime has come to power.
The regime will, in short, deploy the ultimate Swift Boat maneuver to turn around as many races as they need so as to nullify the will of the electorate.
Of course, the Democrats themselves have a rich history of election fraud, but there’s no evidence of much, if any, since Bush came upon the scene; and yet with very few exceptions, they have doggedly refused to speak about the growing danger of such fraud, so that the GOP—the very perpetrators of that fraud—will be the first to make an issue of it. The press too has ignored the issue, other than to bleat, from time to time, that such malfeasance has been common “on both sides.” Thus this besieged democracy appears now to have no defenders but ourselves.
But we can do that vital work if we will only face what’s happening and spread the word, and stand united not as party members, or as liberals, moderates and conservatives, but as Americans.
………
from:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0604/S00233.htm
What is this secrecy in vote counting, really? To have the votes counted in secret by your political enemy is the picture of tyranny. To have the votes counted in secret by your political friend is the picture of corruption. To even desire such an unaccountable power is itself corrupt. So how is HAVA cramming this down the throat of American democracy?
………
And the felon GOP lobbyist Abramoff who put HAVA into law with the help of felon GOP Rep. Ney is still testifying 4 hours a day….
from:
http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2006/11/truth-about-sequoia.html
The truth about Sequoia
As I’ve already reported, BushCo’s DoJ is now “investigating” the alleged connection between Sequoia, the e-voting machinery manufacturer, and Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela. Sequoia is currently owned by SmartMatic, a Venezuelan firm, and one that Chavez uses for his own electoral purposes.
It doesn’t take a giant leap of the imagination to discern the actual propaganda purpose of that inquiry: BushCo’s ongoing attempt to cast the Democrats as the main perpetrators of election fraud in the United States. For that purpose it would help enormously to find some way of blaming the whole festering scandal of e-voting machinery on “the left,”which, in the minds of Bush & Co. and much of the media, includes Chavez, the Clintons, Jesse Jackson, Sean Penn, Barbara Streisand, Michael Moore, George Clooney, Rahm Emanuel, the Dixie Chicks, George Soros and the Shining Path
And so it may be useful to take note of where Sequoia’s product will in fact be used on this Election Day. Here, from my friend R. Miller (no relation), is a survey of Sequoia’s current reach–extending to such major sites of GOP’s electoral malfeasance as Arizona, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania and New Mexico.
If the Democrats do sweep such places, and perform especially well according to Sequoia’s DRE machines and op-scanners, I’ll then be willing to believe that Venezuela’s big, bad president may actually exert some influence on our elections. Otherwise, this notion of some sort of leftist plot to rob the GOP of votes should stand exposed as just another pack of crackpot lies cooked up and circulated for the sake of this regime.
MCM
Article link –
http://computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9004583&pageNumber=3
(article also mentions Sequoia’s denial of ties to Venezuela)
As of October, various machines from Sequoia were certified for use in Arizona, California, Colorado, the District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.
List of Sequoia Glitches tallied by Rocky Mountain News last May (also includes specific cities that have had problems with Sequoia voting machines): http://tinyurl.com/wwuqo