Feels a lot like 2002 out there, at least in terms of total turnout.
[Texas Secretary of State Roger] Williams predicted 36 percent of the registered voters will cast ballots.
That’s the same percentage as in the 2002 gubernatorial election, but there are more voters now. So that would represent an increase of about 136,000 voters.
Total turnout would be just under 4.7 million. Turnout in 2002 was about 4.5 million.
“Early voting remains at a pace equal to the last gubernatorial election, but I think Texans can do better,” Williams said. “I hope that Texans prove my prediction wrong and turn out in record numbers on Tuesday.”
Here’s the index of early voting returns for the 15 biggest counties statewide. Through Thursday, 10.82% of all voters in the top 15 had cast their ballots. In 2002, the early vote total, which included two weekends instead of just one as it was this year, was 13.05%.
I should note that then-SOS Gwyn Smith predicted 40% turnout in 2002 based on early vote returns, which was 10% too high. If Williams has overestimated by that much, we’ll see about 32.5% total. Most years, the conventional wisdom is that high turnout is better for Dems. That wasn’t the case in 2004, and I’m not sure any general statement about what level of turnout benefits whom can be made this year. I can make a case for high or low being good or bad for either party. I think it’s just a guess this year. We’ll see.
Perhaps among one group voting numbers are way down.
Interesting poll by Time which would not need to have party identification percentages subjectively applied, because data is based on gender.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/printout/0,8816,1555024,00.html
Sunday, Nov. 05, 2006
TIME Poll: Registered Republicans Less Enthusiastic About Voting Than Democrats
The G.O.P. also faces a stark drop-off in support from evangelicals and men, according to a new survey
By MICHAEL LEMONICK
With just three days left until the midterm elections, a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 — their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote. Among registered Democrats polled, 52% say they’re more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of Republican respondents are less enthusiastic than usual, while only 29% of Democrats feel that way.
Another challenge facing the GOP is a stark dropoff in support among what is usually a core constituency: white evangelical Christians. According to TIME’s poll, only 54% of people in this group favor Republican candidates, with 5% undecided.
Thirty-eight percent of white evangelicals polled say they’ll support Democrats.
…the 2006 midterms, the TIME poll suggests men are almost evenly split, with 43% supporting Republican candidates and 47% Democrats. Women in the TIME poll support Democratic candidates by a lopsided 59% to 33% for Republicans.
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Democrats winning among men 47% to 43%.
Democrats winning among women 59% to 33%.
Democrats win. Period.
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Now to prove it.
Please pass along to candidates.
November 5, 2006 at 13:32:02
Action Alert! Help Needed to Report Precinct Tallies When Polls Close
http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_sally_ca_061105_action_alert_21__help_.htm
by sally castleman
http://www.opednews.com
Help Needed to Report Precinct Tallies When Polls Close
Sally Castleman
Pollworkers and monitors who will be working inside the polls when they close — or will be outside if the totals are posted — are needed to capture the precinct tallies for use in an exciting new real-time analysis project.
Election Defense Alliance has developed a ground-breaking real-time data analysis capability for election night. Using a series of mathematical and statistical computer models, they will run baseline data (historical election data, demographic and pre-election poll data) against precinct poll tape totals, independent exit poll data, official returns, and any other relevant data we can obtain, in order to flag suspect patterns and anomolous outcome. In real-time! And we will report any significant findings back to the public immediately via website feeds, press releases, and radio interviews.
One goal of providing such rapid analysis is to prevent some premature claims to victory or premature concessions. As well, the results of the analyses may influence citizen actions.
The capture of the original precinct vote totals will be a critical piece of the election analysis; it will act as a check against any subsequent manipulation of vote totals in the county central tabulators.
Those at the polls at closing time are asked to copy the data and enter it into an online form as soon as possible so that those figures will be used in the real-time analysis of “official” outcomes. There is a simple form and accompanying instructions at http://www.electiondefense.net/. People are advised to print out a copy of the form, take it with them to the polls to fill in, and then copy from that form as soon as they get to a computer and can enter the data onto an online form at that site.
Imagine: a simple, universal data collection form with fields for the most important races across the country, that citizens anywhere can fill in, enter into a webform, and have the data uploaded to a national collection website for real-time analysis all within an hour of closing of the polls!
This is a first-of-a-kind project with terribly exciting ramifications. It is hoped that activists everywhere will take this simple additional step to the important work they will already be contributing and contribute essential data to this powerful program.
Questions can be directed to Sally Castleman SallyC@ElectionDefenseAlliance.org or Dan Ashby (510) 233-2144 Dan@ElectionDefenseAlliance.org.
Sally Castleman is an activist “from way back” and has been actively working on issues of election integrity (EI) since before the ’04 election. She is one of the 3 co-founders of Election Defense Alliance, an organization established to foster coordination, communication and resource sharing among the many grassroots EI groups nation-wide.
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http://www.electiondefense.net/form/
Collecting Machine Results from the Polling Place
Nov. 7, 2006, General Election
The form below may be printed out and used to copy down information about the closing of the polls at a polling place.
One cross-check for election integrity is to copy this information and later compare it to to the published results from the canvass.
If possible, arrive before the closing of the polls, watch the polls close and watch the printing of the results from the voting machines.
If the pollworkers are not going to post the results, see if you can copy the results anyway, or get a copy, or have the pollworkers read them to you.
Also, see if you can read the exception log, and copy down any interesting information in it, e.g. if the vendor or County staff had to fix a machine, etc.
If you arrive after the polls are closed or are copying the results from several precincts, just copy the results posted outside the precinct. Keep the copy you have made, make sure to time and date it, and also submit the information at:
http://electiondefense.net/form
Even if the results are not posted, submit this form anyway. We want to know how well the Elections Code is being followed.
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