I think we can all agree that the 2006 strategy among the powers that be among Texas Democrats, which was to focus on the State Legislature while largely ignoring the statewide races, was a success on its own terms. Dems have six more seats in the Lege than at the start of the 2005 session, and no Dem-held seat was lost. All well and good.
What I hope is as we plan to finally make that statewide push in 2010, we do another round of warmups and infrastructure-building in 2008 by putting some of the money that won’t be needed for statewide races that year into Congressional races. I can’t do a full analysis of most of the races from this year that interest me until the Secretary of State puts out its complete set of precinct data, but doing what I can with the county results suggests to me that there will be several opportunities for competitive races if a good candidate can be found (in many cases, the same candidate as this year would be fine) and – most importantly – those candidates get properly funded from the get go. There just wasn’t enough of that this year, and I believe the effect of that is visible in the data.
While everyone will agree that 2006 was a great year for Democrats nationally, it’s not clear how much of that effect spilled over into Texas. The day after Election Day I attended a panel discussion of the results, at which Ted Delisis opined that Texas has tended to lag two years behind the rest of the country in public opinion; in the case of this election, he said it was because George Bush is still fairly well liked here. I believe Bush will be much more of a non-factor in 2008, and I think that will help the Dems more than it did this year.
There’s another thing to consider, and that’s Iraq, which to my mind did not play a large role in Texas in 2006, certainly not as big as it did elsewhere. For sure, various Dems from Ankrum to Harrell and Henley to Harris et al made it a focal point of their campaigns, but getting back to my first point, they largely didn’t have the resources to really force the issue. In 2008, I don’t think the situation in Iraq is going to be any better than it is today, and I think the Texas Congressional Republicans, who were some of the largest cheerleaders for this war, will have to face up to some of their words and actions. Either they’ll be stuck with the same stale “stay the course” rhetoric, or they’ll be forced to explain why after all this time and all this bloodshed they’ve changed their minds.
You may say that thanks to the DeLay gerrymander, no Texas Republican (outside of Henry Bonilla, of course) is in any danger. I say the results from this year show not only that the gap isn’t quite as wide as you might think in many districts, but as CQ Politics showed in its survey of races around the country where Democrats knocked off Republican incumbents, past election results are not always a good predictor, at least in a year where things favor one party. Consider these quotes:
“McNerney garnered just 40 percent of the vote in a 2004 challenge to Pombo, and began his rematch bid this year as a distinct underdog in this Republican-leaning district…”
“Shaw over the years had won, often by wide margins, in Democratic-leaning areas.”
“Chocola won a second term in 2004 by a 10-point margin over Donnelly, and district voters that year gave Bush a 13-point edge over Kerry.”
“Boyda’s prospects in this rematch initially were not seen as that promising, based on the results of her 2004 run against Ryun in which she lost by 15 points. The 2nd is also one of the more Republican-leaning districts picked up by the Democrats this year, having favored Bush by 20 points two years ago.”
“Just two years earlier, [Northrup] had run way ahead of Bush, piling up a career-high 60 percent of the vote after a series of much closer races.”
“Gutknecht, in his past two contests, had garnered 60 percent in 2004 and 62 percent in 2002.”
“Bass’ most recent victim at the polls was Hodes, who lost an initial challenge two years earlier by a 20-point margin.”
“[Gillibrand] had to overcome a perception that she was a longshot in an upper Hudson Valley district that gave 53 percent to Bush in 2004 and elected Sweeney to a fourth term that year with 66 percent over a much weaker opponent.”
“[Weldon] was able to tout his senior position on the Armed Services Committee, and he easily exceeded Bush two years ago by winning with 59 percent.”
I’m just saying, as Jonathan Krasno did, that there’s more to it than district boundaries.
What might mitigate against this possibility for Democrats? Given that I think a continued disintegration of Iraq is inevitable, I can think of two things. One is that the Democratic Congress will be perceived, justly or not, as having done a bad job since becoming the majority. If there’s a national perception that “they’re no better than those bums we just threw out”, then all bets are off. I think there will be enough opportunities to provide oversight to keep the focus on Bush and the Republican Congressional practices, but it’s folly to think that they can’t misplay their hand, or that the GOP won’t do everything in its power to make them look bad. So while I believe the atmosphere in Texas will be good for Democratic Congressional challengers in 2008, it’s certainly not guaranteed.
The other thing, of course, is the Democratic Presidential nominee. For better or worse, having Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket will be welcomed by Republicans around here a lot more than by Democrats. On the other hand, we may get Barack Obama instead, and I daresay that would be considered good news by any Democratic hopeful. I think Kos is right when he says that if Obama runs for the nomination, he wins it. If it’s someone else, we’ll just have to see how it plays.
Bottom line: If the people who brought us this year’s strategy are serious about making statewide races a priority in 2010, I say they need to target Congressional races in 2008. I hope they see it that way as well. I’ll have more to say about some of the 2006 Congressional race results in the coming days, as I keep working through the precinct data analyses.
Speaking of statewide elections and Congressional races, how do you see the 2008 U.S. Senate race right now? I’m concerned that the success of the 2006 “strategy” (which felt a lot like the only thing that could be done, given that so much of the major Dem money when to Strayhorn)might end up making the Dems give up before they even try in this race. And what do you think about Bell as a possible Senate candidate? Is there some reason his name doesn’t come up? Perhaps the fact that he made Grandma (and her backers) look bad?
PG – The field for Senate is wide open right now. Everything I’ve heard so far is just speculation, no real news. I think someone with juice will take a crack at this because there won’t be much else in the way of high-dollar action (not at that level, anyway), and because Cornyn is not nearly as popular as KBH. My gut says Bell will not get in, but you never know.
For sure, various Dems from Ankrum to Harrell and Henley to Harris et al made it a focal point of their campaigns,
They didn’t have to. It was a focal point for every news outlet. You had to be in a cave in Tora Bora to miss it.
Of COURSE it hurt Republicans in Texas. It hurt Republicans everywhere. I haven’t seen any sensible political analysts arguing strenuously to the contrary.
The point I made was that Iraq did not have the same effect here as it did elsewhere. For one, as Delisi said, public opinion in Texas has been more favorably inclined towards the war than in the country as a whole. For two, being in the news is not the same as being connected to specific words and actions by individual public officials, in particular Congressmen. That is what I’m talking about. I believe in 2008 if the funding is there, you will see a lot more of that. And that will have an effect on those races that we didn’t see this time around.
Barbara Ann Radnofsky is running in 2008. Let’s face it, this year’s run was to create the statewide infra structure she’d need as well as to get her name out there. The real question is, what will go on with the other statewide races in 2008?