The National Hispanic Professional Organization (NHPO), in conjunction with The Carreno Group, conducted an online survey of the Houston municipal elections earlier this month, for which they have just released the results. I’ve placed it under the fold for your perusal. I’ll say three things about it.
1. There’s simply no way that Annise Parker really has 60%+ of the vote. I hate to say this, because Parker is my preferred candidate, but there it is. I think Stace sums it up correctly.
Now, this wasn’t a scientific result, but I do believe it shows just how involved the campaigns have been online. As Parker’s results show, and as I stated previously, her online presence is evident with such a large lead. From my own observations, I did not see much online action from the others in the race regarding this survey.
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While some may criticize this survey, let’s call it what it is. A mere snapshot. Sure, there may be ways to add some more controls to the survey to make it more “scientific” (and in this day, more cell phones and less home phones make phone surveys just as ineffective). So, let’s call it what it is: a survey of likely voters who are well-educated, and active online. Besides, it can be fun to watch campaigns get activated and flexing that social media muscle.
2. Having said that, I do think the ethnic makeup of the survey-takers is a reasonable approximation of what we’ll see in November, though it’s skewed too much towards the Democrats. That’s no surprise given that the viable Mayoral candidates are all Dems, and it may result in the actual electorate in November being more Democratic than it is overall. But given the contested Council races in Districts A, E, and G, I wouldn’t be too sure of that. More to the point with runoffs likely in A and G, it may be a mostly Republican electorate that ultimately determines who our next Mayor is. So while this is a useful snapshot of Democratic voters’ preferences, even though it’s not a scientific poll, it’s still not really giving us something representative. I do hope we get some real polling done soon, say in September as an initial baseline; doing it before anyone goes on the air so we can compare how their ads affect their standing would be useful as well.
3. I tried to take this survey myself when it came out, but it didn’t allow me to skip questions, and it didn’t have a “none of the above” or “undecided” option. As I did not care for any of their choices in the “who would you like to see run for Mayor” question, I ultimately didn’t submit my answers. I gave that feedback to the Carreno Group, and I hope their next survey incorporates such a choice on all questions, as I think that will give a more accurate picture.
Anyway. Click on to see the survey results. The previous survey was discussed here. Anyone else here participate in this one?
For the second time this year, Annise Parker holds a commanding lead (66.5%) over Gene Locke (19.2%) in the July 2009 Houston City Elections Survey. Parker has gained 18% among the 1011 likely voters who answered the question- “If the election were held today, who would be your choice for Mayor of Houston”.
Vote for Mayor
PARKER 670 66.3%
LOCKE 194 19.2%
BROWN 128 12.7%
MORALES 19 1.9%
In the May, 2009 NHPO Survey, Parker had 48.8% Locke 29.6%, Brown 13.9%, and Morales 7.7%.
On the question- “Who would you like to see run for Mayor?”
Sylvester Turner 43.5%
Robert Eckels 26.9%
Orlando Sanchez 18.0%
Bill King 11.6%
On the question- “Who would you vote for City Controller?”
Ronald Green 53.7%
Pam Holm 33.0%
MJ Khan 13.3%
The #1 issue among voters in the Controllers race was the Economy 25.4% followed by Infrastructure 21%.
On the question- “of who would you vote for in At-Large #1?)
DERR 44.2%
LITT 17.3%
RODRIGUEZ 17.1%
COSTELLO 16.1%
ALLSBROOK 5.2%
Derr has a lead with all ethnic, except with Hispanics and with gender groups in this survey.
On the question- In At-Large #2 race
LOVELL (I) 75.4%
BURKS 17.4%
Shorter 7.2%
On the question- In the at-Large #4
Freeman 42.7%
BRADFORD 39.8%
GREEN 17.5%
On the question- In the at-Large #5
Jones (I) 70.4%
Obando 29.6%
demographic BREAKDOWN OF survey takers
Ethnicity
Anglos 55.5%
African Americans 23.0%
Hispanics 13.4%
Asians 2.7%
Other 5.4%
PARTY AFFILIATION
D 66.2%
R 10.0%
I 19.4%
other 4.5%
gender
males 56.2%
females 43.8%
Age Groups
36-45 29.8%
46-55 26.0%
26-35 24.5%
56-65 12.5%
others 4.7%
household income
$50-100K 37.4%
$100-150K 25.6%
$0-50k 14.7%
$200+ 11.7%
$150-200 10.6%
highest degree attained
bachelors 44.7%
masters 23.1%
no degree 13.2%
associates 10.4%
PhD 8.6%
About the NHPO:
The National Hispanic Professional Organization (NHPO) is a networking, non-profit, membership-based organization that provides a myriad of educational seminars and professional development training to foster and promote self improvement, professional advancement and personal achievement. Founded January 1, 2004, in Houston, Texas the NHPO currently has twenty rapidly-booming chapters in nine states and is projected to add several more chapters in 2008.
About the carreñogroup:
carreñogroup is an award-winning, Latino-owned public affairs firm based in the Southwest United States – the business, cultural and political heartland of American Latinos. For the past several years, the Houston Business Journal has ranked carreñogroup as one of the top PR firms in its market and in 2007 carreñogroup became a partner firm of the Worldcom Public Relations Group, the world’s leading partnership of independently owned public relations agencies with offices in 94 cities on 5 continents.
disclosure statement:
No member of the Executive Committee of the NHPO is under any type of retainer with the current field of mayoral candidates.
Survey was conducted via the internet with 1,011 Houstonians who were likely registered voters in the upcoming November, 2009 election. All non City of Houston voters were deleted from the results. City of Houston voters was determined by voter zip codes. The survey was conducted from July 17, 2009 to July24, 2009.
The carreñogroup is currently engaged as political consultants in the up coming elections.
I think the “other” choices question was just to cause discussion amongst those that may want some other candidate. I wish there was a blank line where someone could have added their other. Ultimately, it did what it was supposed to do…cause talk to occur.
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