Dr. Murray offers some thoughts on turnout in the November election.
Public interest may finally be picking up a bit, but I still think turnout will lag well behind 2003, when 304,907 ballots were cast in the city. Two reasons I continue to think turnout will be low is that the major candidates do not disagree much on the major issues facing the city, nor have they gone after each other personally, in sharp contrast to the looming Texas governor race between Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and incumbent Rick Perry. This makes sense in a non-partisan multi-candidate field where a runoff is extremely likely, because no one wins the job on November 3rd, so the survivors will need endorsements and new supporters to prevail in the December finale.
He also suggests we watch the early vote tallies in certain precincts to see how this election compares to 2003. What he doesn’t do is offer a guess as to how many votes he thinks will ultimately be cast. So I figured that would make an excellent lead in for a contest. Take your best guesses as to the following:
1. Total votes cast in the Mayoral race.
2. Percentage of the vote cast during Early Voting in the Mayoral race.
3. Percentage of the vote received by Annise Parker, Gene Locke, Peter Brown, and Roy Morales.
4. Percentage of the vote received in the Controller’s race by MJ Khan, Pam Holm, and Ronald Green.
5. For extra credit, pick the runoff participants in At Large #1 and the winner in At Large #4, and say whether CMs Lovell and Jones win outright or get forced into a runoff in At Large #s 2 and 5, respectively.
Leave your guesses in the comments, and we’ll review how everyone did after Election Day. Have fun!
1. Total votes cast in the Mayoral race.
292,750
2. Percentage of the vote cast during Early Voting in the Mayoral race.
28.5%
3. Percentage of the vote received by Annise Parker, Gene Locke, Peter Brown, and Roy Morales.
39% – 28% – 13% – 16%
4. Percentage of the vote received in the Controller’s race by MJ Khan, Pam Holm, and Ronald Green.
20% – 50% – 30%
5. For extra credit, pick the runoff participants in At Large #1 and the winner in At Large #4, and say whether CMs Lovell and Jones win outright or get forced into a runoff in At Large #s 2 and 5, respectively.
1 – Costello & Derr, with Costello over 40%.
4 – Bradford & Freeman, with Bradford comfortably ahead
2 – Outright win
5 – Outright win
1. Total votes cast in the Mayoral race.
?
2. Percentage of the vote cast during Early Voting in the Mayoral race.
?
3. Percentage of the vote received by Annise Parker, Gene Locke, Peter Brown, and Roy Morales.
45% – 25% – 20% – 5%
4. Percentage of the vote received in the Controller’s race by MJ Khan, Pam Holm, and Ronald Green.
20% – 40% – 40%
5. For extra credit, pick the runoff participants in At Large #1 and the winner in At Large #4, and say whether CMs Lovell and Jones win outright or get forced into a runoff in At Large #s 2 and 5, respectively.
1 – Litt and Derr. There are A LOT of Litt yard signs in Meyerland, more so that I have seen for any other At-large 1 candidate in any other part of the city.
4 – No runoff, but Freeman will probably run ad blitz near the end
2 – Outright win
5 – Possibly runoff with Burks/Obando, but a large win in December and lead in November
Hold on, Burks is #2.
I mean Obando/Daniels