Jason Embry notes that if Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison waits until January to officially resign, there could be a profound effect on the Republican ballot.
If she announces a resignation date during the filing period (Dec. 3 – Jan. 4), then perhaps Republican candidates can make their adjustments accordingly. And the move that would set everything else in motion would be for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to say he will seek the U.S. Senate seat in a special election, whenever Gov. Rick Perry sets it, as many expect Dewhurst to do. Then Attorney General Greg Abbott could file for lieutenant governor, others could file for attorney general and we’re on our way.
But what if there is no special election date set during the filing period, or what if Hutchison does not announce a resignation date until after the filing period?
In that case, you’ll likely see Dewhurst file for re-election as lieutenant governor and Abbott file for re-election as attorney general. A candidate cannot withdraw from the primary election ballot after Dec. 30. So if Perry either appoints Dewhurst or Dewhurst announces he wants to run for Senate between Dec. 30 and the March 4 primary, Dewhurst’s name would remain on the ballot.
If Republicans nominate him for lieutenant governor on March 4, but by that time he is either running for the U.S. Senate or has been appointed senator by Perry, the 62 members of the State Republican Executive Committee would choose the new Republican nominee. If the committee chooses someone who has already been nominated for another office (say they choose Abbott, who has just won the Republican primary for attorney general), then the committee would also choose the nominee for that office.
Let’s just say it plays out this way — Dewhurst gets nominated for lieutenant governor but no longer wants the job. And let’s remember that Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in 15 years, so you have to assume that the GOP nominee for any statewide office is a heavy favorite.
So you have 62 Republican activists choosing who could very likely be lieutenant governor of Texas for the next four years. And if they choose Abbott, they could also choose the attorney general for the next four years. And let’s also remember that the executive committee — generally a much more conservative bunch than even your usual Republican primary voter — may not be inclined to offer the job to whoever is next in line. Maybe they choose a state senator or a talk radio host (or someone who is both) to be the GOP nominee for lieutenant governor.
The bottom line is that, if she resigns after the first of the year, Hutchison could well kick the task of nominating candidates for two of the top three jobs in state government to a small group of fiercely conservative activists.
Honestly, I don’t think the SREC is any more conservative than the average Republican primary voter, so in that sense I doubt we’d get anyone farther out than we might have gotten if she resigned now and the floodgates were opened. That said, the politics and the process of convincing 62 people who are essentially conducting an instant-runoff election to support you are quite a bit different than the standard campaign, and as such it’s easy to see how a finger-in-the-eye candidate who might not survive or even bother to get into the latter process could get elevated in this one. And if Democrats don’t have viable candidates for each office, in particular Lite Guv, the (very unfunny) joke will be on us.