In his recent conversation with the Chron’s Peggy Fikac, State Senate Finance Committee Chairman Steve Ogden said the following:
Q: How likely is it that lawmakers will face another big budget shortfall in 2013, with fewer resources to bridge the gap?
A: Wouldn’t want to speculate. Tell me what the price of oil is going to be in 2013. I’m serious. The price of oil’s 35 bucks, it’s going to be bad. The price of oil is about 100 bucks, I think Texas will be fine.
From Tuesday’s business section:
Oil rose 2.1 percent Monday to $86.62 a barrel, the highest close since Oct. 8, 2008, as growth in U.S. service industries signaled the economy is recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s.
“The market’s pausing for breath after such a big move- up,” said Christopher Bellew, senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London. “With the recovery still at a fragile stage, and U.S. inventories ample, we’re unlikely to see prices surging to $100.”
Not quite at Ogden’s magic number, but there’s plenty of time for that. And since the price of oil was hitting a 52-week low at under $44 around this time last year, I’d say we’re in better shape than we’ve been in awhile. I look forward to seeing the sunny financial statements that are sure to be forthcoming from the Comptroller’s office. Not this month, mind you, but next month for sure.