As I did my analysis of the Latino vote in the 2006 election, it occurred to me that I had stumbled across a framework for trying to understand what the effect was of Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn’s candidacies on Rick Perry and Chris Bell. Basically, I would see what percentage of the part vote they got in each State Rep district (SRD), to see if (for example) they were hurt more in areas that were otherwise solid for their partymates. With an assist from Greg Wythe, I got all the relevant data for the 150 SRDs, and went to work. You can see the spreadsheet here (zipped XLS file – it was too big to upload to Google Docs), and a summary of my findings is beneath the fold.
What I did was this: I added up the total Republican and Democratic votes in each of the nine other contested statewide races, and took their average, then computed the R and D average percentage (“R pct” and “D pct” in the header below). I then compared Perry and Bell’s vote totals and percentages to each. “P share” is the ratio of Perry’s vote percentage in that SRD to the average Republican percentage (R pct), and “D share” is the same for Bell. “Diff” is the difference between “P share” and “D share”, so a positive number means Perry retained a higher share of the Republican vote in that SRD than Bell did with the Democratic vote.
While that’s an interesting statistic, what we really care about is how many votes were lost to the third-party candidates. So, I also compared the total votes Perry and Bell got to the party averages in each SRD. “P delta” and “B delta” are the differences between the party averages and the individual totals for each. Finally, I subtracted Bell’s deltas from Perry’s (“P minus B”) to see who suffered the greater loss.
You can see all the data beneath the fold, and you can play with the spreadsheet if you want. Not too surprisingly, as far as the total votes go, Perry and Bell lost the most in the districts where their partymates did the best. That just makes sense, as it’s where the votes are. There wasn’t much of a pattern in terms of vote share in the districts that went the most strongly for one side or the other. Perry and Bell did about as well at retaining vote share overall, though there were some individual variations. Bell tended to do his best at retaining vote share in the African-American SRDs. Perry did well at that in two places: West Texas, and Latino districts. In fact, in SRD31 (Ryan Guillen, Webb County), Perry exceeded the Republican average vote. Bell, by contrast, had some trouble retaining the vote in a number of these districts, though it should be noted that in some of them the overall Democratic vote wasn’t that strong. That as we know is partly a function of the drop in turnout from 2002. But while Perry’s total vote percentage in the Latino SRDs dropped from 2002, it was nonetheless the case that he got his share of what Republican vote there was. Add that to the vote that wandered away from Bell, and it’s clear that there are folks who are open to persuasion. It’s Bill White’s job, and the job of the rest of the Democratic ticket, to keep these voters on their side.
Dist SSVR% R pct D pct Perry% Bell% P share B share Diff P delta B delta P minus B =============================================================================================== 31 91.2% 17.24% 82.76% 21.68% 62.32% 1.26 0.75 0.50 -799 2,121 -2,920 76 85.0% 24.96% 75.04% 22.69% 50.34% 0.91 0.67 0.24 148 3,207 -3,058 38 76.8% 42.39% 57.61% 35.51% 34.90% 0.84 0.61 0.23 571 3,142 -2,572 79 64.4% 42.74% 57.26% 34.38% 33.30% 0.80 0.58 0.22 938 3,310 -2,372 36 82.3% 34.02% 65.98% 32.16% 48.23% 0.95 0.73 0.21 -32 1,631 -1,663 42 85.9% 28.20% 71.80% 25.33% 49.49% 0.90 0.69 0.21 173 2,660 -2,486 78 45.5% 54.98% 45.02% 42.56% 25.61% 0.77 0.57 0.21 2,358 4,510 -2,152 75 76.6% 39.62% 60.38% 32.59% 37.42% 0.82 0.62 0.20 788 3,164 -2,375 77 73.3% 30.90% 69.10% 26.11% 44.68% 0.84 0.65 0.20 412 2,934 -2,522 37 82.0% 35.97% 64.03% 29.89% 40.57% 0.83 0.63 0.20 370 2,374 -2,003 40 88.0% 28.86% 71.14% 25.42% 50.03% 0.88 0.70 0.18 171 1,567 -1,396 43 70.4% 47.55% 52.45% 38.39% 33.36% 0.81 0.64 0.17 1,047 2,833 -1,786 39 81.5% 35.90% 64.10% 31.25% 45.58% 0.87 0.71 0.16 308 1,696 -1,388 69 7.7% 65.97% 34.03% 45.69% 18.60% 0.69 0.55 0.15 4,762 3,960 802 41 68.3% 51.83% 48.17% 41.84% 32.72% 0.81 0.68 0.13 1,092 1,954 -862 14 10.4% 69.21% 30.79% 52.70% 20.25% 0.76 0.66 0.10 3,331 2,394 937 81 32.9% 73.06% 26.94% 49.56% 15.55% 0.68 0.58 0.10 4,223 2,149 2,074 19 2.5% 60.01% 39.99% 46.22% 27.05% 0.77 0.68 0.09 3,002 3,054 -51 82 24.3% 78.43% 21.57% 54.55% 13.12% 0.70 0.61 0.09 6,098 2,260 3,838 33 54.9% 48.97% 51.03% 34.72% 32.55% 0.71 0.64 0.07 2,970 4,099 -1,129 15 5.7% 76.88% 23.12% 52.82% 14.37% 0.69 0.62 0.07 8,533 3,217 5,316 21 5.6% 59.75% 40.25% 45.07% 27.96% 0.75 0.69 0.06 3,387 3,021 366 16 7.7% 76.12% 23.88% 50.21% 14.49% 0.66 0.61 0.05 7,102 2,644 4,458 5 2.2% 64.09% 35.91% 44.88% 23.41% 0.70 0.65 0.05 5,884 3,968 1,916 74 56.8% 52.79% 47.21% 36.73% 30.68% 0.70 0.65 0.05 2,974 3,241 -267 1 1.2% 53.27% 46.73% 39.93% 33.55% 0.75 0.72 0.03 3,155 3,222 -68 88 16.2% 74.94% 25.06% 49.41% 15.82% 0.66 0.63 0.03 6,318 2,340 3,978 87 18.3% 70.47% 29.53% 45.03% 18.20% 0.64 0.62 0.02 4,782 2,156 2,625 54 11.2% 62.51% 37.49% 45.03% 26.29% 0.72 0.70 0.02 3,863 2,511 1,352 68 6.4% 66.06% 33.94% 40.16% 20.06% 0.61 0.59 0.02 7,372 3,998 3,374 6 4.4% 72.97% 27.03% 54.75% 19.86% 0.75 0.73 0.02 5,234 2,084 3,150 2 3.5% 66.89% 33.11% 44.30% 21.46% 0.66 0.65 0.01 5,861 3,056 2,805 18 4.5% 62.07% 37.93% 37.53% 22.67% 0.60 0.60 0.01 5,881 3,672 2,209 32 31.2% 61.04% 38.96% 41.62% 26.32% 0.68 0.68 0.01 5,642 3,690 1,952 72 22.9% 71.57% 28.43% 49.84% 19.66% 0.70 0.69 0.00 4,692 1,901 2,790 55 10.6% 66.78% 33.22% 41.03% 20.27% 0.61 0.61 0.00 6,961 3,504 3,456 62 2.7% 61.71% 38.29% 44.15% 27.25% 0.72 0.71 0.00 4,769 3,008 1,762 53 13.5% 73.19% 26.81% 47.33% 17.33% 0.65 0.65 0.00 8,803 3,224 5,579 9 2.5% 62.06% 37.94% 44.10% 27.01% 0.71 0.71 0.00 4,337 2,637 1,700 124 58.1% 44.57% 55.43% 28.77% 36.02% 0.65 0.65 0.00 2,880 3,531 -651 73 12.6% 76.31% 23.69% 48.08% 15.02% 0.63 0.63 0.00 12,379 3,788 8,591 11 3.2% 66.54% 33.46% 45.03% 22.83% 0.68 0.68 -0.01 5,957 2,931 3,027 34 53.7% 51.33% 48.67% 35.88% 34.32% 0.70 0.71 -0.01 3,352 3,097 255 150 11.2% 70.85% 29.15% 47.14% 19.59% 0.67 0.67 -0.01 6,555 2,633 3,922 130 9.5% 74.82% 25.18% 50.44% 17.17% 0.67 0.68 -0.01 8,331 2,724 5,607 65 7.8% 66.29% 33.71% 48.11% 24.76% 0.73 0.73 -0.01 4,643 2,271 2,372 63 4.9% 73.32% 26.68% 51.53% 19.16% 0.70 0.72 -0.02 7,575 2,581 4,994 143 63.6% 35.31% 64.69% 26.33% 49.26% 0.75 0.76 -0.02 582 977 -395 86 10.8% 78.56% 21.44% 49.79% 13.97% 0.63 0.65 -0.02 8,979 2,312 6,667 80 69.0% 48.89% 51.11% 32.31% 34.75% 0.66 0.68 -0.02 2,954 2,861 93 4 4.3% 65.96% 34.04% 42.14% 22.43% 0.64 0.66 -0.02 7,153 3,440 3,714 7 3.5% 71.37% 28.63% 50.37% 20.86% 0.71 0.73 -0.02 5,556 2,025 3,531 89 5.7% 73.25% 26.75% 51.03% 19.28% 0.70 0.72 -0.02 8,062 2,653 5,409 60 6.3% 69.47% 30.53% 45.64% 20.83% 0.66 0.68 -0.03 7,360 2,951 4,409 125 58.9% 46.76% 53.24% 29.73% 35.27% 0.64 0.66 -0.03 3,572 3,712 -140 145 64.5% 35.89% 64.11% 26.22% 48.54% 0.73 0.76 -0.03 761 1,187 -426 117 55.5% 50.99% 49.01% 32.69% 32.73% 0.64 0.67 -0.03 3,345 2,920 424 104 55.9% 28.40% 71.60% 21.36% 55.91% 0.75 0.78 -0.03 593 1,270 -677 126 11.7% 68.49% 31.51% 47.86% 22.94% 0.70 0.73 -0.03 4,919 2,003 2,915 8 5.2% 62.86% 37.14% 39.98% 24.79% 0.64 0.67 -0.03 5,885 3,110 2,775 140 56.0% 35.79% 64.21% 26.93% 50.37% 0.75 0.78 -0.03 553 827 -274 135 17.5% 64.20% 35.80% 43.19% 25.27% 0.67 0.71 -0.03 4,061 1,990 2,071 58 6.8% 67.76% 32.24% 42.49% 21.29% 0.63 0.66 -0.03 7,452 3,164 4,288 119 58.9% 41.45% 58.55% 25.61% 38.20% 0.62 0.65 -0.03 2,723 3,429 -706 59 7.4% 66.79% 33.21% 42.60% 22.39% 0.64 0.67 -0.04 5,456 2,381 3,075 106 21.2% 54.99% 45.01% 38.62% 33.25% 0.70 0.74 -0.04 2,760 1,905 856 61 4.3% 71.15% 28.85% 46.41% 19.88% 0.65 0.69 -0.04 8,076 2,857 5,219 24 10.2% 63.33% 36.67% 39.61% 24.34% 0.63 0.66 -0.04 7,806 3,953 3,853 132 16.0% 68.04% 31.96% 44.88% 22.34% 0.66 0.70 -0.04 5,895 2,387 3,508 120 33.5% 38.29% 61.71% 24.93% 42.63% 0.65 0.69 -0.04 2,191 3,047 -856 22 5.0% 27.15% 72.85% 21.62% 60.98% 0.80 0.84 -0.04 805 1,622 -817 116 59.2% 41.31% 58.69% 26.33% 39.81% 0.64 0.68 -0.04 2,445 3,001 -556 3 3.3% 58.78% 41.22% 39.74% 29.58% 0.68 0.72 -0.04 4,892 2,855 2,037 122 18.0% 70.54% 29.46% 47.04% 20.89% 0.67 0.71 -0.04 11,293 3,994 7,299 123 59.8% 41.84% 58.16% 26.26% 39.20% 0.63 0.67 -0.05 2,621 3,086 -465 113 11.1% 61.29% 38.71% 43.91% 29.53% 0.72 0.76 -0.05 3,698 1,856 1,841 64 7.6% 61.32% 38.68% 40.55% 27.42% 0.66 0.71 -0.05 5,585 2,913 2,673 127 9.4% 70.58% 29.42% 46.35% 20.82% 0.66 0.71 -0.05 7,364 2,525 4,839 105 12.8% 59.44% 40.56% 42.31% 30.96% 0.71 0.76 -0.05 2,906 1,519 1,387 57 12.6% 49.92% 50.08% 32.67% 35.43% 0.65 0.71 -0.05 3,937 3,230 707 70 6.2% 71.59% 28.41% 51.65% 22.04% 0.72 0.78 -0.05 7,061 2,109 4,952 149 14.9% 55.16% 44.84% 40.15% 35.08% 0.73 0.78 -0.05 2,815 1,721 1,094 29 14.5% 62.59% 37.41% 39.47% 25.66% 0.63 0.69 -0.06 6,920 3,389 3,531 26 9.4% 63.49% 36.51% 45.96% 28.57% 0.72 0.78 -0.06 5,768 2,485 3,283 137 21.3% 48.77% 51.23% 35.16% 39.98% 0.72 0.78 -0.06 993 767 225 10 9.9% 68.74% 31.26% 41.52% 20.74% 0.60 0.66 -0.06 8,081 2,963 5,118 101 12.2% 55.92% 44.08% 38.85% 33.28% 0.69 0.75 -0.06 3,303 1,967 1,336 93 12.6% 54.42% 45.58% 37.95% 34.55% 0.70 0.76 -0.06 2,991 1,891 1,101 98 6.0% 72.91% 27.09% 51.35% 20.77% 0.70 0.77 -0.06 8,579 2,355 6,224 25 15.5% 65.24% 34.76% 36.65% 21.72% 0.56 0.62 -0.06 6,958 3,059 3,899 20 8.6% 66.02% 33.98% 45.50% 25.59% 0.69 0.75 -0.06 8,313 3,180 5,133 144 28.2% 60.32% 39.68% 39.76% 28.71% 0.66 0.72 -0.06 3,456 1,752 1,704 121 21.2% 64.13% 35.87% 40.94% 25.25% 0.64 0.70 -0.07 7,694 3,351 4,343 129 9.2% 65.46% 34.54% 43.24% 25.09% 0.66 0.73 -0.07 6,335 2,542 3,792 128 18.4% 64.37% 35.63% 39.14% 24.15% 0.61 0.68 -0.07 4,728 2,059 2,669 118 57.3% 47.31% 52.69% 28.31% 35.21% 0.60 0.67 -0.07 3,635 3,195 441 35 54.2% 51.57% 48.43% 31.85% 33.37% 0.62 0.69 -0.07 4,936 3,567 1,369 112 7.0% 62.81% 37.19% 44.10% 28.84% 0.70 0.78 -0.07 5,119 2,102 3,018 133 11.7% 60.55% 39.45% 42.16% 30.45% 0.70 0.77 -0.08 3,230 1,472 1,758 111 11.3% 30.86% 69.14% 23.42% 57.86% 0.76 0.84 -0.08 1,846 2,537 -690 99 10.6% 64.81% 35.19% 42.31% 25.81% 0.65 0.73 -0.08 6,878 2,683 4,195 138 19.5% 60.29% 39.71% 37.73% 28.06% 0.63 0.71 -0.08 4,037 1,963 2,074 96 9.8% 57.37% 42.63% 38.91% 32.38% 0.68 0.76 -0.08 5,909 3,062 2,846 109 6.3% 28.33% 71.67% 20.97% 58.92% 0.74 0.82 -0.08 2,103 3,293 -1,190 52 13.7% 58.33% 41.67% 38.81% 31.15% 0.67 0.75 -0.08 5,851 2,880 2,970 136 7.1% 72.07% 27.93% 49.64% 21.54% 0.69 0.77 -0.08 6,579 1,737 4,843 115 8.9% 66.45% 33.55% 46.66% 26.36% 0.70 0.79 -0.08 5,173 1,690 3,482 100 15.9% 22.33% 77.67% 16.66% 64.46% 0.75 0.83 -0.08 760 1,579 -819 107 10.9% 55.48% 44.52% 37.47% 33.82% 0.68 0.76 -0.08 4,758 2,560 2,198 67 5.4% 63.94% 36.06% 45.09% 28.50% 0.71 0.79 -0.09 4,008 1,426 2,582 91 9.0% 63.87% 36.13% 41.54% 26.70% 0.65 0.74 -0.09 5,709 2,239 3,470 56 6.9% 67.67% 32.33% 40.31% 22.13% 0.60 0.68 -0.09 9,968 3,567 6,401 110 13.3% 16.92% 83.08% 12.98% 71.20% 0.77 0.86 -0.09 573 1,529 -956 71 13.7% 72.30% 27.70% 42.30% 18.69% 0.59 0.67 -0.09 8,007 2,290 5,718 45 22.0% 56.05% 43.95% 34.63% 31.09% 0.62 0.71 -0.09 7,205 3,997 3,207 92 7.2% 64.86% 35.14% 43.21% 26.77% 0.67 0.76 -0.10 5,887 2,091 3,796 66 3.5% 69.28% 30.72% 50.02% 25.12% 0.72 0.82 -0.10 5,339 1,340 3,999 103 38.0% 33.65% 66.35% 23.92% 53.66% 0.71 0.81 -0.10 895 1,028 -133 12 4.9% 59.94% 40.06% 38.06% 29.42% 0.63 0.73 -0.10 6,822 3,051 3,770 13 6.0% 67.72% 32.28% 37.29% 21.13% 0.55 0.65 -0.10 8,569 2,955 5,613 44 25.3% 66.95% 33.05% 37.32% 21.91% 0.56 0.66 -0.11 9,918 3,512 6,406 139 15.6% 20.67% 79.33% 15.27% 67.14% 0.74 0.85 -0.11 755 1,507 -753 131 14.2% 22.91% 77.09% 16.80% 64.86% 0.73 0.84 -0.11 898 1,578 -679 94 6.5% 64.75% 35.25% 42.58% 27.06% 0.66 0.77 -0.11 6,386 2,108 4,277 142 17.9% 22.94% 77.06% 16.81% 65.31% 0.73 0.85 -0.11 956 1,617 -662 84 28.6% 65.37% 34.63% 41.27% 25.88% 0.63 0.75 -0.12 5,045 1,702 3,343 90 45.9% 32.67% 67.33% 22.18% 53.64% 0.68 0.80 -0.12 1,188 1,387 -199 102 6.9% 59.17% 40.83% 41.55% 33.57% 0.70 0.82 -0.12 3,637 1,256 2,381 30 20.5% 65.78% 34.22% 38.96% 24.41% 0.59 0.71 -0.12 7,285 2,428 4,857 27 18.6% 42.68% 57.32% 29.84% 47.05% 0.70 0.82 -0.12 3,883 2,794 1,089 23 14.3% 46.35% 53.65% 25.48% 36.09% 0.55 0.67 -0.12 5,502 4,228 1,274 28 13.0% 65.50% 34.50% 39.52% 25.15% 0.60 0.73 -0.13 9,262 3,106 6,156 85 28.9% 65.56% 34.44% 39.15% 25.12% 0.60 0.73 -0.13 6,524 2,085 4,439 50 10.8% 49.54% 50.46% 32.52% 39.82% 0.66 0.79 -0.13 5,634 3,016 2,618 148 43.6% 37.70% 62.30% 22.65% 45.74% 0.60 0.73 -0.13 2,228 2,184 44 83 18.9% 76.16% 23.84% 47.80% 18.20% 0.63 0.76 -0.14 9,465 1,717 7,749 114 5.5% 62.96% 37.04% 44.86% 31.44% 0.71 0.85 -0.14 4,444 1,039 3,405 47 12.5% 51.39% 48.61% 33.59% 38.44% 0.65 0.79 -0.14 7,857 3,831 4,026 46 19.5% 26.28% 73.72% 16.10% 55.31% 0.61 0.75 -0.14 1,880 3,054 -1,174 108 10.3% 57.79% 42.21% 39.40% 34.66% 0.68 0.82 -0.14 4,618 1,504 3,114 141 14.4% 26.53% 73.47% 18.60% 61.83% 0.70 0.84 -0.14 1,111 1,413 -302 147 14.6% 21.52% 78.48% 14.51% 64.12% 0.67 0.82 -0.14 1,215 2,121 -906 17 10.7% 58.60% 41.40% 32.71% 29.30% 0.56 0.71 -0.15 8,634 3,591 5,043 97 8.2% 61.71% 38.29% 40.65% 30.99% 0.66 0.81 -0.15 7,498 2,209 5,289 51 42.4% 23.81% 76.19% 13.41% 55.05% 0.56 0.72 -0.16 1,470 2,638 -1,168 95 9.1% 24.83% 75.17% 16.91% 63.38% 0.68 0.84 -0.16 1,624 2,105 -481 48 6.4% 52.87% 47.13% 35.22% 39.38% 0.67 0.84 -0.17 6,945 2,353 4,592 134 6.3% 54.09% 45.91% 32.81% 36.56% 0.61 0.80 -0.19 8,091 2,837 5,253 146 6.8% 29.76% 70.24% 19.27% 58.95% 0.65 0.84 -0.19 2,373 2,080 293 49 11.7% 25.03% 74.97% 13.68% 58.98% 0.55 0.79 -0.24 3,927 4,233 -306 58.64% 41.36% 39.27% 29.98% 0.67 0.72
Strayhorn and Kinky weren’t third party candidates. They were independent candidates.