Do I hear $21 billion? $21 billion, anybody?
The working estimate of the looming state budget shortfall has grown to about $21 billion in the face of smaller-than-expected tax revenues and projected higher costs for education and health care, legislative staff said Monday.
Previous estimates topped out at about $18 billion for the upcoming two-year budget period.
“There are a lot of moving parts to the budget, and unfortunately, a lot of them are moving in the wrong direction,” budget expert Dale Craymer, president of the Texas Taxpayers and Research Association, said of the new estimate.
The latest estimate from legislative budget writers’ staff comes after the state closed the books on the 2010 fiscal year Aug. 31.
Tax collections dampened by the recession are about $1 billion worse than anticipated, according to figures discussed by staff.
Another $2 billion of the shortfall estimate is tied to new projections for growth in areas such as public school enrollment, Medicaid caseloads and higher health care costs for prisoners, government employees and retirees. Staff called the figure a rolling estimate.
You can call it whatever you want. I call it a big problem, one that cannot be solved by mushy talk about belt-tightening. This next legislative session is going to be so much fun. BOR has more.