Those Texas Lyceum folks have been busy lately, first with their Senate poll, and now with an early peek at the 2010 Governor’s race.
Robert Black, spokesman for [Governor Rick Perry], dismissed the Texas Lyceum Poll results, saying, “Any poll that tries to forecast any kind of results two years from an election isn’t worth a whole lot.”
[…]
Perry has said he wants to continue his streak by winning another term in 2010, but the poll for the non-profit Texas Lyceum group gave a strong advantage to Hutchison, who’s expected to run for governor.
Among all respondents, 35 percent said they were likely to support Hutchison in a GOP contest, and 22 percent backed Perry, with other possible candidates dividing the rest. Among a subgroup of GOP voters, Hutchison drew 50 percent to 23 percent for Perry.
The poll shows “how difficult it is to be a governor,” said Daron Shaw, poll director and associate professor in the government department at the University of Texas at Austin. “Perry has to take lots of positions and get out in front on public policy issues. Senators can be a little more selective.”
The poll of 1,000 Texans has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
You can see the poll memo here (PDF); they also did a poll on transportation issues, which you can see here (PDF). For once I have to agree with Robert Black (and also with Greg, though that’s not unusual). It’s just not possible that this poll can tell us anything very specific at this early date. Now a straight-up “Do you want to see Governor Perry run for re-election in 2010” question, that would have been something. This, not so much. All I’ll say about the Bill White numbers is that much closer to the 2003 election than we are now to 2010, lots of people – myself included – were comparing him to George Greanias. Never underestimate someone who can raise funds and hire good people.