Via Greg, who is predictably jazzed about it, the state of Texas expects its detailed Census data this week, meaning that the redistricting battle is set to begin in earnest.
Demographers expect the data to validate projections of surging growth in metropolitan areas, stagnant or declining population in much of rural Texas, and striking gains among Hispanics, the nation’s fastest-growing minority. But in addition to providing new numbers for thousands of city-limit signs statewide, the material will also serve as the starting point for redrawing congressional, legislative and state school board districts.
“We will have a better idea of who will gain representation and who will lose representation,” said Rep. Marc Veasey, D-Fort Worth, a member of the House Redistricting Committee. “And there will definitely be winners and losers.”
With so much at stake, legal challenges seem all but guaranteed regardless of what emerges from the Legislature. Leaders of the House and Senate have brought in outside counsel, and ethnic and political organizations with a stake in the outcome will likely field an impressive array of legal talent. One early redistricting suit has already been filed in a federal court in Sherman, and others are likely to follow.
“They tell me that it is the most lawyered-up process in the Legislature,” said Sen. Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo, chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Redistricting. Rep. Mike Villarreal, D-San Antonio and vice chairman of the House Redistricting Committee, said, “Ultimately what we wind up fighting over is who’s going to be the defense and who are going to be the plaintiffs.”
Expect to see many more “fantasy maps” at Greg’s place in the near future; here’s one example to get you started. Among the other people who are no doubt celebrating this news are the folks in the city’s Planning Department, as this means they can get started drawing new City Council lines. As City Attorney David Feldman noted in the interview I did with him, the city’s timeline for getting this done was based on receiving the data at the end of February. Having it in hand earlier than that gives them a little breathing room. We should start seeing their efforts in a few weeks.