Many things to say about this UT-Austin Government Department and the Texas Politics Project poll of the Presidential and Senate races in Texas. Where to begin…
– Let’s start with a nitpick: Ralph Nader is not and will not be on the ballot in Texas. There’s no good reason to include him in any poll. It just adds noise to the result.
– Both Rick Noriega and Barack Obama have room to grow, as neither does all that well among Democrats, especially so-called “Not Very Strong Democrats”. Both John McCain and John Cornyn do better among Republicans than Obama and Noriega do among Democrats, with far fewer undecideds. McCain’s support trails off, with a fair amount going to Bob Barr, as you move from “Very Strong Republicans” to “Independent Leaning Republicans”. That’s somewhat counter-intuitive – you always hear it’s the base that dislikes McCain while more independent voters gravitate towards him. In Texas, 90% of “Very Strong Rs” are on his side, while the “Independent Leaning Rs” go maybe 67% McCain, and almost 20% for Barr. I confess, I would not have expected it to be quite like that. Of course, these are pretty small sub-samples, so we shouldn’t read too much into it.
– Oddly, the “Independent Leaning Ds” favor both Obama and Noriega more than the “Not Very Strong Ds” do. I’m not quite sure what to make of that. Both Obama and Noriega do decently among true Independents, with Noriega having a small lead over Cornyn, and Obama trailing McCain slightly.
– I have to agree with Evan Smith when he wonders how 17 percent of respondents – these are the registered voters, mind you – could express no preference in the Presidential race. I know it’s still August and all, but geez.
– The full poll summary is here (PDF). Among other data points of interest: Right track/wrong track is 20/67; is the country better off/worse off/about the same from a year ago = 2/81/15; are you better/worse/same from a year ago = 17/48/34. President Bush has below average approval, while Rick Perry’s numbers are surprisingly robust. Oh, and nearly as many people want Democratic control of both the Governor’s mansion and the Lege as want Republican control of each.
Re: “how 17 percent of respondents – these are the registered voters, mind you – could express no preference in the Presidential race.”
I think there are two answers to this:
A) Motor voter registration means a lot of people are registered with little or no knowledge about or interest in politics and who will never go to the polls. And,
B) It can’t be overstated – many Americans are just not very bright. To quote the Austin Lounge Lizards, “With a negative IQ, you don’t have a point of view. Life is hard, but life is hardest, when you’re dumb.”
– Oddly, the “Independent Leaning Ds” favor both Obama and Noriega more than the “Not Very Strong Ds” do. I’m not quite sure what to make of that. Both Obama and Noriega do decently among true Independents, with Noriega having a small lead over Cornyn, and Obama trailing McCain slightly.
I think the folks that self identify as independents are pretty much just that. They are folks that don’t feel themselves always feel bound to a certain party orthodoxy and will vote for candidates from any party. But even those people have sort of a default setting which will steer them to one party when they don’t have enough data to pick a particular candidate.
As for the “Not So Strong D’s”, that may include a people in this group – http://justsaynodeal.com/
There is a segment of the Democratic voters that is so committed to Hillary Clinton that they may be discouraged enough to identify themselves as “Not so Strong” and clearly they ar harboring some bitterness towards Obama. I think it’s a small number of people, but it could prove troublesome for Obama.
Now, I don’t think this is a large number of people but if this group that should be a slam dunk for the Democratic candidate splits with a portion defecting to McCain and others not voting it could tip some of those battleground states (I’m looking at you Ohio and Michigan.)
Charles, as you know I’m a nominally a Republican with a pretty wide independent streak but if I could offer some advice to the Dems.
Do not rely on the Clintons to do ANYTHING to help Barack Obama. Giving the Clintons the microphone on 2 nights of the convention was IMO a huge tactical error. The Clintons understand that despite some of the Hillary partisans rhetoric, it’s over in 2008. But should Obama lose…well that sets the stage for Hillary 2012. Ask John Kerry what he thinks about the Clinton support he got campaigning in 2004. There’s a reason he backed Obama.
Polls are a waste of time until October. Don’t underestimate the american voter.
Don’t underestimate the american voter.
Yeah, they’ve been aces these last two Presidential elections.