Updated Seliger-Solomons numbers

I had previously run the numbers for the new Congressional districts in the Seliger-Solomons plan. Now that we’ve gone from Plan C125 to Plan C130, let’s see what they look like now. Here’s a side-by-side comparison, with the districts grouped as before. First up, the Safe Republican seats:

         C125    C130      C125    C130
Dist    Obama   Obama   Houston Houston
=======================================
01      30.40   30.47     37.01   36.39
02      35.39   35.86     38.14   36.65
03      37.37   37.37     36.79   36.79
04      29.28   29.28     37.55   37.55
05      37.31   37.28     42.07   42.05
07      39.32   39.08     38.10   37.83
08      25.43   26.08     28.59   29.40
11      23.42   23.13     28.44   28.29
13      22.24   27.48     22.24   27.48
14      34.30   39.69     41.96   47.31
19      27.94   32.32     27.94   32.32
22      35.80   36.92     37.65   38.32
26      39.44   39.64     39.44   39.64

Note the big change to CD14, which reflects the fact that it exchanged some of Brazoria and Chambers for Jefferson. I wouldn’t get too excited by this, since as we’ve discussed neither Jefferson nor Galveston (the other main component to CD14) are trending the right way. It does reflect the overall lack of respect that Ron Paul has from the GOP establishment, however, as they’d never do that to anyone else, at least not without that person’s express consent.

You can’t make one district that much less red without making another one more so, and we see that change in the Likely Republican seats:

         C125    C130      C125    C130
Dist    Obama   Obama   Houston Houston
=======================================
06      41.67   41.67     44.29   44.28
10      43.81   42.77     44.14   43.41
12      42.50   42.50     43.10   43.10
17      40.71   40.94     43.98   44.08
21      42.51   42.67     40.48   40.61
24      40.55   40.54     39.91   39.91
25      42.40   42.83     43.63   43.95
27      40.78   40.31     46.28   45.85
31      42.61   42.61     42.47   42.47
32      43.79   43.79     43.63   43.63
33      42.64   42.64     43.90   43.90
36      41.02   29.58     47.46   39.30


         C125    C130      C125    C130
Dist    Obama   Obama   Houston Houston
=======================================
23      47.19   47.19     49.27   49.27

I went ahead and threw in Lean Republican CD23, since it didn’t change. But CD36 sure did, going from a possible target to a highly unlikely one. I figure losing the SN22 turf had an effect, though I note that CD02 managed to absorb it without any indigestion. (CD02 also got some redder turf from Harris to balance it out.) It now has the Republican parts of eastern Harris instead. At this point, I’d call CD36 Safe Republican and CD14 Likely Republican even though I don’t have much faith in there being a serious challenge. And I wonder who needs to write a thank-you note to Kel Seliger for this bit of generosity.

Not much change on the Democratic side of things:

         C125    C130      C125    C130
Dist    Obama   Obama   Houston Houston
=======================================
15      59.15   58.43     61.90   61.19
20      58.40   58.47     58.15   58.34
34      59.11   60.29     62.85   63.87

09      76.42   76.49     76.77   76.85
16      66.44   66.44     68.68   68.68
18      79.48   79.24     78.71   78.47
28      60.40   60.91     63.33   63.82
29      65.18   65.40     70.09   70.29
30      81.87   81.89     82.08   82.10
35      60.70   60.61     61.16   60.98

A precinct here, a precinct there, not much else to it. I will simply add, since Greg has made a big deal about this, that the SSVR% in CD20 has gone from 58.72% to 50.82%. That seems likely to get further scrutiny in the future. I should also note, as Greg did, that Plan C130 gave way to Plan C136, and what was finally passed was Plan C141, but the differences between them and Plan C130 on which these numbers are based are very minor.

Related Posts:

• WaPo on Texas redistricting
• Seliger-Solomons 2.0
• The Seliger-Solomons Congressional map is out