Congressional map gets final approval

On to the Governor.

The Republican-controlled Texas Senate approved a new congressional district map for the state Monday and sent it to Gov. Rick Perry for his approval.

[…]

The map was approved 19-12 along party lines and without debate. Democrats have complained the new map violates the federal Voting Rights Act by splitting Latino and black communities and diluting their voting power.

If Perry, a Republican, signs the map into law, it will go to the Department of Justice for review. The Voting Rights Act requires Texas to make sure the map does not diminish minority representation.

Far as I know, the map is the same as the one the House approved last week. Here’s a final look at the numbers, with districts sorted into those drawn to be Republican seats and those drawn to be Democratic. First, numbers we’re familiar with, from the 2008 elections:

Dist  Obama Houston
===================
01     30.4    36.4
02     35.9    36.7
03     37.4    36.8
04     29.3    37.6
05     37.3    42.0
06     42.5    45.4
07     39.1    37.8
08     26.1    29.4
10     42.6    43.2
11     23.1    27.5
12     44.2    44.8
13     22.2    27.5
14     42.0    47.3
17     40.9    44.1
19     27.9    32.3
21     42.2    40.2
22     37.6    38.3
23     47.5    49.6
24     40.5    39.9
25     42.7    43.5
26     38.7    38.9
27     40.1    45.8
31     42.5    42.4
32     43.8    43.7
33     41.7    43.0
36     29.6    39.3

09     76.5    76.8
15     57.3    60.0
16     64.4    66.5
18     79.6    78.7
20     59.1    59.5
28     60.0    62.7
29     64.6    69.7
30     81.8    82.0
34     60.0    63.6
35     63.2    63.1

As observed before, all downballot Dems but one carried CD23 in 2008, with two of them getting a clear majority. This district is definitely winnable and should be a top target in 2012. Other districts bear watching and deserve willing challengers, but may not be ready to turn. Joe Barton’s millions will make CD06 a tough nut to crack even as it keeps getting bluer.

I’ve done most of my analysis on the 2008 elections, since the first election after redistricting will be a Presidential year election, and I wanted to compare apples to apples. But let’s take a look at some non-Presidential year numbers to see what they tell us as well:

       2010  2010  2010  2006
Dist  White   LCT   BAR Moody
=============================
01     31.5  23.8  23.2  37.1 
02     36.3  27.5  26.4  35.5
03     33.6  26.6  27.5  34.2
04     32.9  24.1  23.3  43.2
05     38.3  28.9  28.8  43.5
06     41.9  35.2  34.4  45.4
07     40.5  28.9  28.3  37.4
08     27.1  19.0  18.0  32.7
10     41.2  31.8  30.7  46.3
11     23.9  16.8  15.7  33.1
12     41.7  35.6  34.6  46.7
13     24.7  16.5  15.6  34.0
14     41.8  34.7  33.6  50.6
17     41.2  31.6  30.3  47.3
19     28.1  19.5  18.2  36.5
21     38.8  30.7  29.3  43.7
22     37.3  29.1  27.6  38.3
23     43.8  37.8  34.8  51.1
24     36.2  29.0  29.5  38.4
25     41.4  32.4  31.3  47.9
26     34.6  27.8  27.6  39.3
27     40.0  32.2  29.4  49.9
31     36.6  29.5  27.8  41.9
32     42.1  33.0  35.3  43.3
33     39.5  33.1  31.9  43.0
36     32.8  24.8  23.4  44.4

09     76.6  72.8  71.2  73.9
15     53.7  49.4  45.7  55.5
16     60.0  54.8  53.1  69.8
18     79.6  73.8  72.8  78.6
20     57.1  51.4  46.8  62.1
28     59.0  53.5  50.3  61.5
29     69.1  63.9  61.3  69.0
30     81.1  78.4  77.1  79.2
34     55.7  52.2  46.8  62.2
35     59.9  53.6  50.1  65.5

White is Bill White, LCT is Linda Chavez-Thompson, the 2010 Democratic nominee for Lt. Gov., BAR is Barbara Radnofsky, the 2010 nominee for Attorney General, and Moody is Bill Moody, who ran for State Supreme Court in 2006 (and in 2002 and 2010, but never mind that for now). White was by far the top Democratic votegetter in 2010, earning about 400,000 more votes than most of the rest of the Dems, all of which came out of Rick Perry’s totals. Radnofsky was the Democratic low scorer, as Greg Abbott topped the GOP field – he had about 115,000 more votes than Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst – and won a few crossover votes of his own in doing so. Moody was the top Dem in 2006.

BAR’s numbers represent a worst case scenario. Three districts drawn for Democrats – Ruben Hinojosa’s CD15, Charlie Gonzalez’s CD20, and the “new” CD34 (which is really Solomon Ortiz’s old district with a different number) would fall under these conditions. The good news, if you want to look at it that way, is that BAR lost by over 30 points. LCT, who lost by “only” 27 points, won all 10 of these districts; she didn’t get a majority in CD15 but she did carry it by two points and about 2,000 votes. Barring a repeat of 2010 or unfavorable demographic changes, these districts should continue to lean Democratic even in bad years. That said, if I had absolute control over who ran for what, I’d give serious thought to finding a successor for the 71-year-old financially troubled Rep. Hinojosa, on the theory that it’s better to defend an open seat in a year where the wind will probably be at your back than in a year where maybe it won’t be.

I included Moody’s 2006 numbers because I wanted to show what things might look like in a year where Republican turnout isn’t crazy off-the-scale high. The comparison is a bit skewed because the 2008 and 2010 reports from the Texas Legislative Council include third-party candidate, but reports from before then do not. There was a Libertarian candidate in the Moody-Don Willett race in 2006, and that candidate got about 4%, so Moody’s numbers here are all a bit high. Still, you see that he won CD23, lost CD27 by a hair (less than 300 votes), and – surprise! – won CD14. I still believe that the underlying fundamentals of that district are going the wrong way, but who knows? The right candidate with the right message could make life interesting in 2014.

I will have one more thing to say about these numbers in a future post, but for now that about closes the books, at least until the Justice Department and eventually the courts have their say. Remember, if history is any guide, we’ll have some new districts to play with in 2016. You can see the 2010 report here, the 2008 report here, and the 2006 report here; my thanks to Greg for sharing them with me. The Lone Star Project has more.

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