Normally, this would be considered good news.
Ironically, even as the Atlantic tropics reach their peak and Texas marks the anniversaries of 1961’s Hurricane Carla on Sunday and 2008’s Hurricane Ike next Tuesday, chances of a hurricane making landfall on the state this year are falling.
“Historically, hurricanes rarely impact the Texas coast after mid-September, and I don’t think that this year will be any different,” said Chris Hebert, a hurricane forecaster with Houston’s ImpactWeather.
After Sept. 24, just three storms have made landfall at hurricane intensity along the Texas coast during the last 150 years. And the next two weeks look to remain quiet off the Texas coast.
“The persistent ridge of high pressure which has dominated Texas through the summer will be returning late this weekend,” Hebert said. “With that ridge in place, it will be hard to get any tropical moisture into Texas.”
Long-range models don’t indicate any possible tropical threat to Texas, nor do they offer the region any hope for rain over the next few weeks, Hebert said.
But when you’re in the middle of a historically bad drought, one that may stretch on for months, if not years, the prospect of a hurricane doesn’t sound as bad as it usually does. For better or worse, we’re unlikely to get one this year.