First impressions of the new maps

Before I get too into this, the invaluable Texas Redistricting reminds us that the parties in the lawsuit will be able to make objections and comments to the proposed maps today at noon. Meaning, there may yet be some tweaks to come.

Until then, this is what we have. I have 2008 electoral data for the House here and for the Senate here. The Trib has some nice pictures of the maps here, Greg has a Harris County view here, Stace has a look at his neck of the woods here, and Texas Redistricting notes all of the pairings here. My opening thoughts:

– The Senate map is not very different from the one we had coming into 2011. Sen. Wendy Davis, whose statement about the proposed maps can be seen here, gets a district she can win but will have to work hard to do it. Note that SD09 is also somewhat purple in hue, though redder than SD10. It’s certainly worthy of a challenge. I don’t have much to add to this, just to note that Dems would have a puncher’s chance of maintaining 12 seats. No guarantees, but they’re in much better shape for it than they were when they started.

– By my count in the House there are 60 seats that Democrats should have some reasonable expectation of winning:

Dist   County   Incumbent  Obama  Houston
=========================================
22  Jefferson    Deshotel   68.8     72.6
23  Galveston      Eiland   47.8     54.3
27  Fort Bend    Reynolds   68.8     68.6
31       Webb     Guillen   77.1     80.7
33     Nueces   Torres(R)   49.8     55.4
34     Nueces    Scott(R)   49.8     55.3
35    Hidalgo  Aliseda(R)   63.3     65.0
36    Hidalgo       Munoz   72.8     75.1
37    Cameron    Oliveira   67.5     69.7
38    Cameron       Lucio   64.7     67.0
39    Hidalgo    Martinez   72.3     74.6
40    Hidalgo     Pena(R)   74.8     77.4
41    Hidalgo    Gonzales   57.0     59.7
42       Webb     Raymond   70.8     76.5
43    S Texas      Lozano   51.6     57.9
46     Travis       Dukes   76.6     74.6
48     Travis      Howard   60.7     56.7
49     Travis    Naishtat   73.9     69.5
50     Travis      Strama   59.6     56.6
51     Travis   Rodriguez   80.6     77.9
54       Bell   Aycock(R)   60.6     60.4
74   Maverick     Gallego   57.9     61.3
75    El Paso Quintanilla   74.1     75.4
76    El Paso    Gonzalez   74.7     77.5
77    El Paso     Marquez   60.8     62.6
78    El Paso    Margo(R)   58.3     60.0
79    El Paso     Pickett   64.8     67.4
80     Uvalde     T. King   51.9     56.8
90    Tarrant      Burnam   66.8     68.7
93    Tarrant     Nash(R)   62.1     62.4
95    Tarrant      Veasey   79.2     79.3
100    Dallas  E. Johnson   87.6     87.7
103    Dallas      Anchia   60.5     61.9
104    Dallas      Alonzo   68.2     70.8
105    Dallas  H-Brown(R)   49.7     51.6
107    Dallas   Sheets(R)   65.6     66.9
109    Dallas    Giddings   74.2     74.7
110    Dallas     Caraway   80.8     81.7
111    Dallas     Y.Davis   73.8     74.3
116     Bexar   M-Fischer   59.6     59.4
117     Bexar    Garza(R)   53.7     54.2
118     Bexar      Farias   53.7     56.3
119     Bexar   Gutierrez   58.2     59.7
120     Bexar   McClendon   64.9     64.5
123     Bexar  Villarreal   59.2     58.9
124     Bexar    Menendez   59.4     59.6
125     Bexar      Castro   57.7     58.5
131    Harris       Allen   80.7     81.1
137    Harris    Hochberg   60.3     60.7
139    Harris      Turner   75.9     76.1
140    Harris       Walle   70.0     73.8
141    Harris    Thompson   72.7     73.4
142    Harris      Dutton   77.3     78.9
143    Harris        Luna   60.2     66.9
144    Harris   Legler(R)   53.2     59.0
145    Harris    Alvarado   61.6     65.7
146    Harris       Miles   81.2     80.8
147    Harris     Coleman   81.0     79.2
148    Harris      Farrar   59.0     62.4
149    Harris          Vo   55.2     55.5

Note the post above about pairings, and note also that Reps. Gallego and Castro are planning to run for Congress as things stand right now. Harris County remains with 24 seats, but instead of Reps. Hochberg and Vo being paired, Rep. Beverley Woolley was “paired” with Rep. Jim Murphy. I put “paired” in quotes because of course Woolley is retiring, and what they really did was eliminate HD136 – it’s now in Waller and Montgomery Counties – and give Murphy a stronger red district. The Harris split as I see it is now 13D – the twelve existing incumbents plus the redrawn HD144 – to 11R, with Woolley and Rep. Ken Legler going away. Quite remarkable.

In addition to these, the following seats could be competitive for Dems and certainly should be contested:

Dist    County   Incumbent  Obama  Houston
==========================================
17     Bastrop   K'schmidt   40.9     46.2
26   Fort Bend        Open   48.4     48.3
45        Hays       Isaac   46.7     45.8
47      Travis     Workman   44.6     41.2
64      Denton   Crownover   42.0     41.8
65      Denton    Solomons   43.0     42.4
94     Tarrant     Patrick   41.5     42.0
97     Tarrant     Shelton   43.0     43.0
102     Dallas      Carter   43.4     43.8
106 Williamson        Open   46.0     43.1
108     Dallas      Branch   48.7     46.0
112     Dallas Chen Button   42.1     44.0
113     Dallas      Driver   46.0     48.2
114     Dallas    Hartnett   42.4     41.3
115     Dallas     Jackson   44.0     42.9
134     Harris    S. Davis   50.1     46.2
135     Harris      Elkins   42.8     43.8
138     Harris       Bohac   42.2     42.9

Obviously, some of these are more potentially competitive than others, but there are a couple that could reasonably go the Dems’ way. Note that Reps. Driver, Hartnett, and Jackson are all stepping down, and that Rep. Burkett was paired with Driver and Rep. Sheets was paired with Hartnett. HD26 was Rep. Charlie Howard’s (HD30 is the new Fort Bend-centered district), and HD106 had been called HD149 before.

Bottom line: Assuming this map with no unfavorable changes made to Dems, I’d consider a 10-seat pickup to be acceptable, and a 15-seat pickup to be a hell of a day. I have no idea why the Chron says that Dems “could gain a half-dozen seats” when a cursory glance shows eight Republicans now in districts that were majority Dem all the way in 2008. If six was all we got under this map, I’d call for beheadings. Note that Robert Miller predicts a more or less 90R 60D House, which is right in line with my view, so it’s not just my optimism talking here.

– Bear in mind that if the Dems pick up 13 seats, which I would consider a very good result, that leaves the partisan balance at 88-62 in favor of the Republicans, or exactly where we were after the 2002 elections. The loss of all those rural Democrats really hurts. The path forward from here is urban and suburban, and it won’t be easy.

But at least there is a path forward now. We’ll see if the court makes any further adjustments to the maps after today’s hearing. BOR, Juanita, EoW, and PDidde have more.

Related Posts:

• New map, new opportunities: Harris County
• The small number of competitive legislative races in November
• The numbers in the “deal”