Michael Li, on why many an elections administrator likely spent the weekend pulling out their hair:
The March 6 primary also remains in place for now, but adjustments are virtually certain- even if the Supreme Court rules quickly after the January 9 oral argument.
At this point, it’s very unlikely that the primaries for state house, senate, and congressional races could be kept on March 6 just because of the logistics involved.
The ballot order draw in each county is scheduled for December 20 and ballots will be printed shortly after that (the process takes about two weeks) so that military mail ballots can go out by early-January, as required under federal law.
The process of redrawing precinct boundaries (and the need to have those boundaries precleared) further complicates matters and makes it unlikely that the March date can maintained if state house, senate, and congressional races are added back into the mix.
In other words, it seems certain that either the entire primary or primary elections for state house, senate, and congressional districts will need to be moved.
The state has suggested having state house, senate, and congressional primaries on May 22, with the primary for all other races remaining on March 6. However, the Supreme Court has not addressed the issue yet or asked the San Antonio court to do so.
And indeed, an elections administrator wrote to him to expand on that:
From an email I received this morning from an election administrator about the possibility of having the legislative and congressional primary in May and everything else in March.
“One of my biggest fears in a bifurcated primary is that the Early Voting period for a runoff is different from a Primary or General Election. If we have both elections on the same day, and no adjustment is made, a voter could possibly cast a ballot in a Primary for State Senator, but have to return a week later to cast a ballot in a runoff for U.S. Senator. Also, Early voting period for the runoff is currently scheduled to begin the next business day after our municipal and school elections. If we had the typical 2-week EV period for the bifurcated Primary, we could have two different elections happening in the same polls at the same time. Ugly.”
Greg had talked about logistics as well, and how everything takes time and moving one thing around affects everything else. Right now, we have a filing deadline of this Thursday, and no legally enforceable maps. To put some context on what that might mean for a potential candidate, consider that I am currently in HD148. During the legislative session, there were proposed maps that put me into HDs 147, 143, and 146, before depositing me in HD145. The San Antonio court then put me in HD134, and from there no one knows what comes next. It’s a good thing I have no urge to run for office, because I’d be feeling like Sybil right about now if I did.
AG Abbott has now requested a stay on “all deadlines and requirements governing candidate filing and administration of the 2012 elections for the Texas House of Representatives, the Texas Senate and Texas’s congressional districts, until further order by the three-judge panel in San Antonio or the U.S. Supreme Court”, which would at least give some breathing room till this mess gets straightened out. One possible solution, as Robert Miller notes, would be to move the entire primary to May. According to the Trib, that will be what the plaintiffs fight for if the primary date is changed at all. Meanwhile, county clerks and cities like Austin that will be holding elections in May are no doubt sweating it all out, as the election calendar for next year could be packed. All we can do at this point is wait and see what SCOTUS has in store next.
This can play out so many ways. I may be wrong but from what I’ve been reading in Abbott’s filings it appears he may be launching a challenge in SCOTUS of Section 5 of the VRA, the preclearance requirement. The Northwest Austin MUD case in 2009 opened the door to challenge based on some of the statements made by Chief Justice Roberts in the opinion. “These federalism costs have caused Members of this Court to express serious misgivings about the constitutionality of §5,” said Roberts writing for the majority.
By leveraging the TX redistricting process as an avenue for challenge, Abbott could try to go for the “holy grail” and nullify Section 5 of the VRA, gaining a victory for all those states currently under the preclearance requirement. In a sense, it helps solidify his “states rights” position and bolsters his record as he prepares to run for governor in 2014.
However, balanced against that challenge are maps themselves, which seem to clearly demonstrate dilution of minority voting by the 82nd Legislature. That behavior essentially fortifies the argument that preclearance is necessary since TX did not demonstrate a pattern of remedy from prior history. The question will be how SCOTUS views this. You could have a case to strike down preclearance at the same time you have a case demonstrating violation of Section 2 of the VRA by the maps.
The bottom line is that I don’t see a good path for TX elections in 2012. This could benefit Abbott’s run for governor if he wins or it could become a huge black mark against him if he loses. All the TX Democratic candidate would have to do is drum up all the drama of 2012 to remind voters how much angst Abbott put them through.
Moving the entire primary is probably the best choice from a logistical perspective, but you can bet Governor Perry will not be particularly interested in weakening Texas’ position in the presidential primary since he is a candidate. Having a stronger position in the presidential primary is the reason our primary elections have been moved so early in the year to begin with.
Run-off elections typically draw sparse turnout. But if other contests go forward in March, and both run-offs for those contests plus the congressional, state senate and state house primary elections take place on the May date, we might have substantial turnout for a those other run-offs. Will there be yet another run-off for those state house, state senate, and US Congress positions in June/July?