Michael Li reminds us what comes next.
Waiting for a map like you, to come into my life
The San Antonio court has scheduled a hearing on interim maps and the election schedule for next Wednesday, February 15, with briefs on a broad range of issues due this Friday.
That gives the parties a week to continue talking, and it is possible further consensus could be reached. If there isn’t a consensus, the court will begin the process of drawing interim maps.
The state and the Republican Party of Texas have said that they think matters are far along enough that the court should be able to complete maps by February 20 and allow a primary to go forward on April 10 or April 17. However, there are some legal and logistical issues that still might prevent that (more here).
The RPT also has suggested April 24 as a primary date but, at the last hearing, there was some concern that day would prove to be unworkable because of the need to prepare for early voting in municipal and school board elections, which begins the following week.
If April doesn’t work, the most viable dates after that are May 29 and June 26.
You should of course be reading Texas Redistricting, but in case you’re not for some reason, here’s some additional reactions to the “deal”, from Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, the NAACP, MALC, and the Republican Party, which is clearly trying to sell it to its members. Here also are the post-trial briefs from the preclearance trial, for which we’re all waiting on a ruling.
Elsewhere on the interwebs, Politico reports that some of Rep. Henry Cuellar’s colleagues aren’t too happy with him for his endorsement of the Abbott “deal”.
Democrats are stunned that Cuellar would negotiate with Republicans, let alone agree to a map they argue would cost the party several seats and rob minorities of the chance to maximize their gains in the House of Representatives.
“He’s a deplorable, dishonest person. He’s proven it time and time again in redistricting,” said Matt Angle, founder of the Lone Star Project, a group aimed at supporting Democratic candidates in Texas. “I know it sounds over the top, but it’s true.”
The compromise map that Abbott and Cuellar agreed to is very similar to one that the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature approved last year, which would have positioned Democrats to win only 11 of the state’s 36 congressional seats.
Democrats had objected to the Legislature-drawn map, arguing in federal court that it doesn’t sufficiently recognize the state’s booming minority population. Democrats want an interim plan that more closely resembles one drawn by a San Antonio-based court that would have made it likely for the party to hold 13 of the 36 seats. The Supreme Court struck down the interim plan last month.
Let me interrupt here to say that I don’t know what numbers Politico is going by. By my count, the legislatively-drawn map, was 26-10 GOP, with CD23 being lean GOP and CD14 being potentially competitive, while the Abbott map was likely to have at least 11 Dem seats, with CD23 being tossup/lean Dem, and CD14 being lean GOP, though that may be more the influence of the declared candidate than the map itself. If all you knew were the straight R and D numbers, it’s better than what the Dems started with, albeit not quite as good as what they almost had. Obviously, there’s more to it than that, and I don’t care for this deal because I think it’s the low end of what is possible, but it’s not the worst thing in the world.
It hasn’t been unusual for Democrats to partner with Republicans on redistricting. With the GOP controlling much of line-drawing this go-around, Democrats across the country have forged alliances with Republicans to ensure they get favorable treatment in the redistricting process, which can make or break a member’s political fortunes.
Mexican American Legislative Caucus Chairman Trey Martinez Fischer called Cuellar’s agreement an effort by the congressman to finalize a rock-solid, South Central Texas-based district for himself to run in. But he argued it would have little impact on the final lines.
“I take Henry’s actions at face value,” said Fischer, who called Cuellar a friend. “The consequences of this agreement really don’t go beyond the confines of his district.”
Cuellar disputed the idea that he’s looking out for himself at others’ expense, pointing out that he’s been well-positioned to win reelection in each of the proposed maps. He said he felt no need to promote one plan over another to get a leg up.
Rather, he said he aimed to advance a plan that would help solidify a set of minority-held seats. On Monday, his office released a lengthy statement detailing how the plan would advance the interests of Hispanic and black candidates seeking House seats.
“To say I did this for my own interests is absolutely crazy,” Cuellar told POLITICO. “This has nothing to do with self-promotion. Anyone who says anything else is being dishonest with you.”
Rep. Cuellar has filed an advisory with the court, urging it to adopt the Abbott map. For what it’s worth, Smokey Joe Barton filed his own advisory saying that he “strongly objects to this proposed settlement”. So the bipartisanship goes both ways.
Anyway. BOR speculates why Abbott is pushing for a deal. I think there’s a lot of pressure on him, but it’s not clear to me that it’s all or even primarily in one direction. At the end of the day, redistricting is always more multidimensional than just R versus D. Prof. Murray provides some historical context to what’s going on. Finally, I got a request after the previous numbers post to include results from the 2008 Court of Criminal Appeals race for Position 3, in which Susan Strawn was the Democratic candidate. As this post is long enough already, I’ve put those numbers, which include a couple of State Rep districts I didn’t list before, beneath the fold.
UPDATE: Stace has a guest post from Joe Cardenas of Texas LULAC on why the Texas Latino Redistricting Task Force likes the Abbott maps.
Dist Incumbent McCain Obama Wainwright Houston Price Strawn
==================================================================
22 Deshotel 34.77 64.73 30.66 67.92 31.94 66.77
23 Eiland 51.35 47.77 42.99 54.22 43.78 53.50
27 Reynolds 29.88 69.63 28.96 69.55 28.90 69.73
30 Morrison*+ 50.26 48.99 42.24 54.74 43.54 53.89
31 Guillen 22.12 77.42 15.75 81.00 17.49 80.00
34 Scott* 46.93 52.17 38.90 57.76 40.08 57.01
35 Aliseda*+ 35.74 63.30 31.87 64.99 32.37 64.97
36 Munoz 26.39 72.85 23.01 75.08 23.51 74.55
37 Oliveira 31.33 67.52 25.82 69.67 27.60 68.95
38 Lucio 34.01 64.67 28.74 67.02 30.27 66.44
39 M.Martinez 26.86 72.35 23.17 74.63 23.78 74.07
40 Pena*+ 24.43 74.81 20.13 77.42 20.71 77.03
41 Gonzales 42.16 57.05 37.83 59.68 38.73 58.73
42 Raymond 28.91 70.56 20.00 76.31 21.56 75.53
43 Lozano 48.82 50.51 40.00 56.79 41.26 56.01
46 Dukes 21.51 77.04 20.50 74.99 20.04 75.34
48 Howard 37.53 60.77 37.52 56.86 36.93 57.53
49 Naishtat 24.26 73.67 24.04 69.21 23.96 69.24
50 Strama 38.01 60.27 36.95 57.51 36.27 58.13
51 E.Rodriguez 17.84 80.40 16.47 77.69 16.22 77.84
54 Aycock* 51.20 47.93 47.97 49.01 49.16 47.98
74 Gallego+ 41.15 57.91 34.93 61.32 35.85 60.93
75 Q'tanilla+ 25.14 74.13 21.64 75.42 23.51 73.79
76 N.Gonzalez 23.86 75.15 19.18 78.00 21.20 76.18
77 Marquez 34.56 64.25 30.18 66.08 32.02 64.56
78 Margo* 43.64 55.31 39.57 56.84 41.57 55.25
79 Pickett 34.62 64.52 29.83 67.13 32.23 64.90
80 T.King 48.65 50.76 41.30 55.87 40.94 56.63
90 Burnam 29.89 69.40 25.82 72.00 26.57 71.45
95 Veasey+ 23.57 75.90 22.30 76.09 22.20 76.31
100 E.Johnson 22.13 77.18 20.29 77.50 20.73 77.28
101 Open 37.82 61.59 35.63 62.19 36.05 61.94
103 Anchia 31.44 67.47 28.78 68.04 29.48 67.61
104 Alonzo 30.25 68.76 25.88 71.39 26.90 70.85
109 Giddings 19.84 79.62 18.78 79.79 18.87 79.81
110 M-Caraway+ 12.02 87.55 10.55 88.19 10.97 87.88
111 Y.Davis 24.18 75.24 22.81 75.60 23.04 75.52
116 M-Fischer 38.80 59.89 36.27 59.67 35.29 61.14
117 Garza* 47.71 51.33 44.69 51.76 43.70 53.49
118 Farias 42.57 56.36 37.44 58.81 36.17 60.78
119 Gutierrez 40.30 58.59 35.77 60.38 34.50 62.40
120 McClendon 36.12 62.95 34.14 62.49 32.86 64.30
123 Villarreal 39.13 59.58 36.30 59.35 35.34 60.92
124 Menendez 39.17 59.79 36.40 60.05 35.25 61.69
125 Castro+ 40.69 58.14 37.58 58.56 36.48 60.58
131 Allen 17.92 81.66 16.59 81.92 16.31 82.16
136 Vo 34.89 64.47 32.15 65.73 32.49 65.31
137 Open 43.64 55.47 42.22 55.26 41.55 55.87
139 Turner 23.99 75.55 22.65 75.85 22.26 76.19
140 Walle 33.16 66.24 27.42 71.02 27.68 70.56
141 Thompson 14.35 85.29 13.25 85.61 13.33 85.50
142 Dutton 21.32 78.28 19.31 79.43 19.57 79.14
143 Luna 35.22 64.14 27.89 70.22 28.65 69.42
144 Legler* 51.04 47.95 43.02 54.53 44.24 53.23
145 Alvarado 41.99 57.13 35.76 61.73 36.34 61.15
146 Miles 21.32 78.15 20.74 77.63 20.16 78.16
147 Coleman 18.94 80.34 18.16 79.68 17.69 80.13
148 Farrar 41.43 57.49 37.68 59.18 37.38 59.36
12 Open 59.77 39.38 50.77 46.67 52.11 45.40
17 K'schmidt 58.23 40.31 49.95 45.43 49.33 46.41
45 Isaac* 51.66 46.72 49.00 45.84 48.68 46.09
47 Workman* 53.85 44.75 53.40 41.27 52.96 41.76
52 L.Gonzales* 51.93 46.18 50.33 45.01 50.49 44.79
85 Open 58.68 40.68 52.81 45.22 52.86 45.29
102 Carter* 52.18 46.64 50.17 46.75 51.00 46.01
105 H-Brown* 52.69 46.14 48.72 48.18 49.28 47.76
107 Sheets* 52.25 46.71 48.72 48.46 49.39 48.07
112 C-Button* 54.89 44.03 51.69 45.68 52.77 44.61
113 Driver*+ 53.00 46.05 49.53 47.87 50.19 47.37
114 Hartnett*+ 52.36 46.57 51.71 45.66 52.20 45.41
134 S.Davis* 54.39 44.59 56.95 40.36 54.67 42.70
149 Open 51.81 45.92 51.20 42.93 51.09 43.02
Dist Incumbent McCain Obama Wainwright Houston Price Strawn
==================================================================
09 A. Green 23.42 76.12 22.06 76.33 21.90 76.48
15 Hinojosa 41.84 57.30 37.30 60.00 37.49 59.99
16 Reyes 34.59 64.39 30.15 66.55 32.21 64.74
18 Jackson Lee 22.89 76.57 21.61 76.71 21.34 76.98
20 Gonzalez+ 40.64 58.23 37.70 58.60 36.59 60.27
23 Canseco* 49.27 49.88 44.99 51.68 44.85 52.36
28 Cuellar 40.97 58.28 35.27 61.28 35.34 61.81
29 G. Green 37.04 62.22 30.34 67.66 31.01 66.90
30 Johnson 21.07 78.33 19.74 78.58 20.01 78.45
33 Open 30.64 68.57 27.18 70.54 27.72 70.24
34 Open 39.06 60.00 32.84 63.62 33.89 63.22
35 Open 35.47 63.18 32.55 63.10 31.80 64.20
06 Barton* 57.03 42.19 53.58 43.75 53.84 43.62
10 McCaul* 56.17 42.59 53.10 43.23 53.13 43.20
14 Paul*+ 57.03 42.12 49.70 47.52 50.86 46.68
25 Doggett 56.05 42.73 52.14 43.54 52.22 43.56
27 Farenthold* 58.95 40.12 50.85 45.75 51.40 45.49
31 Carter* 55.80 42.54 53.26 42.40 53.63 42.05
32 Sessions* 55.05 43.83 53.36 43.82 54.12 43.17
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