Last week, Harvery Kronberg posted an anonymous analysis of former San Antonio Mayor and Clinton cabinet member Henry Cisneros as a Democratic candidate for Governor in 2010. I’ve put a copy of it here (rich-text format document) for ease of download. Todd Hill at BOR goes into this at some depth, so I’ll leave the heavy lifting to him. For now, I’ll say that while the BOR commenters were more negative than positive to the idea, I think on balance Cisneros would be a decent candidate. I’m less worried about his baggage than some, on the grounds that if Rick Perry is the Republican nominee, he’ll go negative on whoever the Dems put up, and if it’s KBH the Democratic candidate will have to do the same. I don’t think we’ll get any more or less a negative campaign with Cisneros on the ticket, it’ll just be a matter of what gets said. Finally, if neither Bill White nor John Sharp changes his mind about what race to run, Cisneros would at least qualify as someone with statewide name recognition and fundraising potential. If those two are out, we could certainly do worse than Henry Cisneros; we may wind up doing worse regardless. What do you think?
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Polling Texas 2020
UT/Trib, Apr 25: Trump 49, Biden 44
DT/PPP, Apr 29: Biden 47, Trump 46
UT-Tyler/DMN, May 3: Trump 43, Biden 43
Emerson, May 13: Trump 47, Biden 41
Quinnipiac, June 3: Trump 44, Biden 43
PPP, June 5: Trump 48, Biden 48
PPP/PT, June 23: Trump 48, Biden 46
Fox, June 25: Biden 45, Trump 44
UT/Trib, July 2: Trump 48, Biden 44
PPP/Emily’s List, July 2: Biden 48, Trump 46
UT-Tyler/DMN, July 12: Biden 48, Trump 43
CBSNews, July 12: Trump 46, Biden 45
Quinnipiac, July 22: Biden 45, Trump 44
Morning Consult, July 28: Biden 47, Trump 45
Morning Consult, August 3: Biden 47, Trump 46
Polling Texas 2018
WPA, Jan 5: Cruz 52, O'Rourke 34
PPP, Jan 27: Cruz 45, O'Rourke 37
Quinnipiac, April 19: Cruz 47, O'Rourke 44
Quinnipiac, May 31: Cruz 50, O'Rourke 39
PPP, June 8: Cruz 48, O'Rourke 42
GQR, June 16: Cruz 49, O'Rourke 43
CBS/YouGov, June 24: Cruz 44, O'Rourke 36
UT/Trib, June 25: Cruz 41, O'Rourke 36
Gravis, July 10: Cruz 51, O'Rourke 42
Lyceum, July 31: Cruz 41, O'Rourke 39
Quinnipiac, July 31: Cruz 49, O'Rourke 43
PPP, August 2: Cruz 46, O'Rourke 42
NBC News, August 23: Cruz 49, O'Rourke 45
ECPS, August 27: Cruz 38, O'Rourke 37
Crosswinds, September 12: Cruz 47, O'Rourke 44
Quinnipiac, September 18 (LV): Cruz 54, O'Rourke 45
Ipsos, September 19 (LV): O'Rourke 47, Cruz 45Polling Texas 2016
Beatty, Jun 22: Trump 37, Clinton 30
UT/TTP, Jun 27: Trump 41, Clinton 33
KTVT/Dixie, Aug 11: Trump 46, Clinton 35
PPP, Aug 16: Trump 44, Clinton 38
WaPo-SurveyMonkey, Sep 6: Clinton 46, Trump 45
ECPS, Sep 14: Trump 42, Clinton 36
Texas Lyceum, Sep 15: Trump 39, Clinton 32
YouGov, Oct 3: Trump 50,1, Clinton 41.5
KTVT/Dixie, Oct 5: Trump 45, Clinton 38
WFAA/SurveyUSA, Oct 14: Trump 47, Clinton 43
UH Hobby Center, Oct 17: Trump 41, Clinton 38
WaPo/SurveyMonkey, Oct 17: Trump 48, Clinton 46
CBS/YouGov, Oct 23: Trump 46, Clinton 43
Crosswind/Statesman, Oct 27: Trump 45, Clinton 38
UT/TT, Oct 27: Trump 45, Clinton 42
KTVT/Dixie Strategies, Nov 2: Trump 52, Clinton 39
NBC/WSJ/Marist, Nov 3: Trump 49, Clinton 40
ECPS, Nov 3: Trump 49, Clinton 34
YouGov, Nov 5: Trump 50.3, Clinton 42.4Polling Texas 2014
UT/TT, Nov 2013: Abbott 40, Davis 35, Glass 5
PPP, Nov 2013: Abbott 50, Davis 35
UT/TT, Feb 2014: Abbott 47, Davis 36
ECPS, Mar 2014: Abbott 49, Davis 42
Rasmussen, Mar 2014: Abbott 53, Davis 41
PPP, Apr 2014: Abbott 51, Davis 37
UT/TT, June 2014:Abbott 44, Davis 32
YouGov, July 2014: Abbott 50, Davis 34
Rasmussen, Aug 2014: Abbott 48, Davis 40
YouGov, Sep 2014: Abbott 56, Davis 38
Lyceum, Oct 2014: Abbott 49, Davis 40
Rasmussen, Oct 2014: Abbott 51, Davis 40
KHOU, Oct 2014: Abbott 47, Davis 32
UT/TT, Oct 2014: Abbott 54, Davis 38
YouGov, Oct 2014: Abbott 57, Davis 37Polling Texas 2012
PPP April 26: Romney 50, Obama 43
UT/TT May 22: Romney 46, Obama 38 (RV) - Romney 55, Obama 35 (LV)
WPAOR Sep 13: Romney 55, Obama 40
YouGov Sep 24: Romney 52, Obama 41
Lyceum Oct 2: Romney 58, Obama 39
YouGov Oct 17: Romney 55, Obama 41
UT/TT Oct 29: Romney 55, Obama 39
Baselice Oct 30: Romney 54, Obama 38
YouGov Nov 3: Romney 57, Obama 38-
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Polling Texas 2016
Beatty, Jun 22: Trump 37, Clinton 30
UT/TTP, Jun 27: Trump 41, Clinton 33
KTVT/Dixie, Aug 11: Trump 46, Clinton 35
PPP, Aug 16: Trump 44, Clinton 38
WaPo-SurveyMonkey, Sep 6: Clinton 46, Trump 45
ECPS, Sep 14: Trump 42, Clinton 36
Texas Lyceum, Sep 15: Trump 39, Clinton 32
YouGov, Oct 3: Trump 50,1, Clinton 41.5
KTVT/Dixie, Oct 5: Trump 45, Clinton 38
WFAA/SurveyUSA, Oct 14: Trump 47, Clinton 43
UH Hobby Center, Oct 17: Trump 41, Clinton 38
WaPo/SurveyMonkey, Oct 17: Trump 48, Clinton 46
CBS/YouGov, Oct 23: Trump 46, Clinton 43
Crosswind/Statesman, Oct 27: Trump 45, Clinton 38
UT/TT, Oct 27: Trump 45, Clinton 42
KTVT/Dixie Strategies, Nov 2: Trump 52, Clinton 39
NBC/WSJ/Marist, Nov 3: Trump 49, Clinton 40
ECPS, Nov 3: Trump 49, Clinton 34
YouGov, Nov 5: Trump 50,3, Clinton 42.4
Polling Texas 2014
UT/TT, Nov 2013: Abbott 40, Davis 35, Glass 5
PPP, Nov 2013: Abbott 50, Davis 35
UT/TT, Feb 2014: Abbott 47, Davis 36
ECPS, Mar 2014: Abbott 49, Davis 42
Rasmussen, Mar 2014: Abbott 53, Davis 41
PPP, Apr 2014: Abbott 51, Davis 37
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YouGov, July 2014: Abbott 50, Davis 34
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YouGov, Sep 2014: Abbott 56, Davis 38
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Rasmussen, Oct 2014: Abbott 51, Davis 40
KHOU, Oct 2014: Abbott 47, Davis 32
UT/TT, Oct 2014: Abbott 54, Davis 38
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Polling Texas 2012
PPP April 26: Romney 50, Obama 43
UT/TT May 22: Romney 46, Obama 38 (RV) - Romney 55, Obama 35 (LV)
WPAOR Sep 13: Romney 55, Obama 40
YouGov Sep 24: Romney 52, Obama 41
Lyceum Oct 2: Romney 58, Obama 39
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UT/TT Oct 29: Romney 55, Obama 39
Baselice Oct 30: Romney 54, Obama 38
YouGov Nov 3: Romney 57, Obama 38
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Kuff – Isn’t Henry C. a convicted felon? If so, doesn’t that disqualify him from holding elective office?
Truly, I think the Dems could do a *lot* better than him.
~EdT.
Ed – According to Wikipedia:
In March 1995, U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno secured the appointment of an Independent Counsel, David Barrett to investigate allegations that Cisneros had lied to FBI investigators during background checks prior to being named Secretary of HUD. He had been asked about payments that he had made to former mistress Linda Medlar, also known as Linda Jones. The affair had been ‘public knowledge’ for a number of years – during the 1992 presidential campaign, George H. W. Bush’s Treasurer Catalina Vasquez Villalpando (R) publicly referred to Cisneros and candidate Clinton as “two skirt-chasers.” Cisneros lied about the amount of money he had paid to Medlar. The investigation continued for three and a half years.
In December, 1997, Cisneros was indicted on 18 counts of conspiracy, giving false statements and obstruction of Justice. Medlar used some of the Cisneros hush money to purchase a house and entered into a bank fraud scheme with her sister and brother-in-law to conceal the source of the money. In January, 1998, Medlar pleaded guilty to 28 charges of bank fraud, conspiracy to commit bank fraud and obstruction of justice.
In September, 1999, Cisneros negotiated a plea agreement, under which he pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor count of lying to the FBI, and was fined $10,000. He did not receive jail time or probation. He was pardoned by President Bill Clinton in January 2001.
So the answer is no, he was not convicted of a felony, and in any event he was pardoned. I agree there are better possibilities, but there are plenty of worse ones as well. At this point, we may as well consider what is possible.
If you want another Republican governor in Texas, by all means, jump on that Cisneros bandwagon.
Texxasredd – I hear what you’re saying, but give me an alternative. My first choice is running for Senator. I ain’t interested in Kinky. Who else do we have right now?
“So the answer is no, he was not convicted of a felony, and in any event he was pardoned. I agree there are better possibilities, but there are plenty of worse ones as well. At this point, we may as well consider what is possible.”
I cannot think of any worse possibilities. The pardon by Bill Clinton in itself is a huge can of worms. It’s a shame Texas does not have a stronger party with more viable candidates. Part of the problem is the power the Republican Party has held which has prevented many viable Democrats from even seeking office. But part of the problem is the party itself. I still am appalled that John Cornyn was returned to Congress. At least half of the Republicans don’t like him. But the Democratic Party for some reason simply didn’t put the effort or the money behind Rick Noriega.
And Arthur Schechter doing the Washington rounds during the inauguration with the Hispanic “movers and shakers” isn’t going to heal the wounds that he himself is partially responsible for by opening up his home for a fundraiser with Bill Clinton for a state senatorial candidate instead of for a US senatorial candidate. Left a bad taste as they say.
How about Ronnie Earle?
“How about Ronnie Earle?”
The Republicans would love to point out how Tom De Lay isn’t in jail. And then point out how Kay Bailey Hutchison didn’t go to jail. Talk about motivating Republicans to go to the polls – every Republican in the state of Texas would vote in 2010. A particularly bad idea particularly if Kay Bailey Hutchison wins the primary and is the Republican candidate.
People, you forget to read the writing on the wall before you. The majority in this next coming election (inspite of the republican party efforts to thwart constitution rights)will be the Democratic Party. The Republican Party needs to wrap itself around this new truth…It’s no longer a “melanian deficient” society.