Libertarian presidential candidate and would-be spoiler Gary Johnson smoked out new campaign cash here this week.
But his hopes are just a pipe dream unless he wins over Republican voters loyal to never-say-quit candidate Ron Paul.
“Hundreds” of Republicans have promised Johnson they will switch his way if the Republican National Convention nominates Mitt Romney on Aug. 30, Johnson said Thursday.
“That’s hundreds telling me personally, which means how many more?” Johnson said during a six-day Texas campaign swing.
He predicted a “gigantic influx” of support after Romney is nominated.
[…]
Yet even before any Paul voters switch, his current 8 to 13 percent of the vote in Western states might be enough to tip pivotal Electoral College votes for or against Romney or President Barack Obama.
If Johnson takes away a swing state Romney badly needs — “then let me be the spoiler,” Johnson said.
This story is actually from two weeks ago. I’d forgotten that I’d drafted something, then had my memory jogged after the Ron Paul–related kerfuffles this week. To put some context on Johnson’s numbers, there were 174,207 votes cast for Ron Paul in this year’s GOP Presidential primary. That would have represented 2.15% of the 8 million plus votes cast in 2008. That’s not very much, and that’s assuming every known Ron Paul supporter in May did in fact vote for Johnson in November. But even that paltry total towers over the past performances of Libertarian Presidential candidates in Texas:
Year Libertarians Pct
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1992 Marrou/Lord 0.32%
1996 Browne/Jorgenson 0.36%
2000 Browne/Olivier 0.36%
2004 Badnarik/Campagna 0.52%
2008 Barr/Root 0.69%
The Secretary of State data don’t go back any farther than that, but thanks to Dave Liep’s Election Atlas, I can bring you the other two results:
Year Libertarians Pct
===============================
1980 Clark/Koch 0.83%
1988 Paul/Marrou 0.56%
I suppose you can look at Bob Barr’s 2008 performance as having doubled the Libertarian total in only eight years, or as finally getting back towards the high-water mark of 1980. Either way, I’ll bet the under on that 2.15% mark.
I’ll take the over. ;^)
Who cares about national #s?
I’d love to see Johnson perform well in the battleground states and punk the majority party Republicans.
Ron Paul received over two MILLION votes in the primary.
KJ – I was referring to the number of votes cast for Ron Paul in Texas.