Last year, the official estimate for the 2007 hurricane season was 14 named storms. Then we heard that La Nina was active, which would tend to increase the number of hurricanes. And sure enough, that esitmate has now been bumped to 17 for 2007.
Forecaster William Gray said he expects 17 named storms in all this year, five of them major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, he said.
Last year, Gray’s forecast and government forecasts were higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced.
There were 10 named Atlantic storms in 2006 and five hurricanes, two of them major, in what was considered a “near normal” season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast–only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945. The National Hurricane Center in Miami originally reported nine storms, but upgraded one storm after a postseason review.
Gray’s research team at Colorado State University said an unexpected late El Nino contributed to the calmer season last year.
[…]
A weak to moderate El Nino occurred in December and January but dissipated rapidly, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray’s team.
“Conditions this year are likely to be more conducive to hurricanes,” Klotzbach said Tuesday. In the absence of El Nino, “winds aren’t tearing the storm systems apart.”
Link via Houstonist, which notes that an updated forecast will be made on May 31, the day before the season officially begins. While it’s always a good idea to be prepared for the worst, bear in mind as SciGuy reminds us that this is an inexact science. They predicted 17 storms last year, after predicting 13 for 2005. I’m hoping this forecast is inaccurate in the way that last year’s was, but let’s be honest: Sooner or later, we’re going to be imperiled by another big storm. May as well be ready for it, even if we don’t have to rely on that readiness this year.