Precinct data arrived late on Friday, so you know what that means. I’ll be taking a look at all of the races this week. Let’s start with the main event, the Mayor’s race.
Dist Drab Dick Cook Keryl Hall Parker Fitz Lane Perk
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A 59 2,439 231 64 2,911 7,072 100 148 78
B 76 219 67 172 7,953 4,549 43 132 102
C 85 3,047 250 100 4,117 23,683 186 201 75
D 105 533 136 298 10,046 7,669 90 193 102
E 81 4,073 268 77 3,895 9,335 187 161 106
F 55 863 112 71 1,764 4,323 65 167 43
G 100 4,411 212 56 4,660 16,624 214 125 85
H 58 582 117 69 2,423 6,389 76 185 53
I 57 580 122 88 2,577 5,392 74 223 72
J 30 623 87 46 1,341 3,463 54 83 31
K 57 921 114 151 5,056 8,469 90 162 75
Here are the same numbers as percentages, for those of you that prefer that sort of thing.
Dist Drab Dick Cook Keryl Hall Parker Fitz Lane Perk
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A 0.45% 18.62% 1.76% 0.49% 22.22% 53.98% 0.76% 1.13% 0.60%
B 0.57% 1.65% 0.50% 1.29% 59.74% 34.17% 0.32% 0.99% 0.77%
C 0.27% 9.60% 0.79% 0.32% 12.97% 74.61% 0.59% 0.63% 0.24%
D 0.55% 2.78% 0.71% 1.55% 52.40% 40.00% 0.47% 1.01% 0.53%
E 0.45% 22.40% 1.47% 0.42% 21.42% 51.34% 1.03% 0.89% 0.58%
F 0.74% 11.56% 1.50% 0.95% 23.64% 57.93% 0.87% 2.24% 0.58%
G 0.38% 16.65% 0.80% 0.21% 17.59% 62.76% 0.81% 0.47% 0.32%
H 0.58% 5.85% 1.18% 0.69% 24.35% 64.20% 0.76% 1.86% 0.53%
I 0.62% 6.31% 1.33% 0.96% 28.06% 58.70% 0.81% 2.43% 0.78%
J 0.52% 10.82% 1.51% 0.80% 23.29% 60.14% 0.94% 1.44% 0.54%
K 0.38% 6.10% 0.76% 1.00% 33.49% 56.10% 0.60% 1.07% 0.50%
Mayor Annise Parker
Disclaimer time: These are unofficial results, as the final canvass has not yet taken place. Provisional ballots may affect the ultimate totals. For a variety of reasons, the numbers don’t add up to the exact totals you will find on the Harris County Clerk webpage. And of course, these are Harris County totals only – there’s a tiny piece of District E in Montgomery County, a tiny piece of F in Fort Bend, and a not-so-tiny piece of K in Fort Bend. Keep all of those things in mind.
Let me start by saying that if this isn’t the death knell for the “Pincer Strategy”, it’s at least Strike Two, and Justin Verlander is on the mound, in the windup. Maybe there’s a combination of African-American Democrat and conservative Anglo Republican that can squeeze out an Anglo Democrat for Mayor, but we haven’t seen one recently, and Lord knows Ben Hall and Eric Dick weren’t it. I plan to point and laugh at the next person quoted in a media outlet that mentions this as a possibility. We’re likely to be spared it in 2015 if only because the big names being bandied about are folks that don’t fit this mold like Adrian Garcia and Stephen Costello, but regardless. The pincer is broken. Let us not speak of it again.
Well, okay, one last point about the pincer. A key principle of that strategy is for the African-American candidate to dominate the African-American vote. Ben Hall didn’t come close to doing that. Even if you add in his margin in Fort Bend County, he still lost District K, and didn’t crack 60% in B or D. That wasn’t because Keryl Douglass or Victoria Lane siphoned votes away from him, he just didn’t do that well. When I run the numbers later for candidates like Ronald Green and Brad Bradford, you’ll see more clearly how weak he was. I think you have to give Mayor Parker credit for that. I wish there were some exit poll data to get a better picture of why he did so underwhelmingly, but for now let’s stick to what’s right before us: Mayor Parker had a very good second term and a strong economy at her back, she’s a better candidate than she’s given credit for, and Hall ran a lousy campaign. We shouldn’t overcomplicate things.
As for Mayor Parker, a quick comparison to 2011 will show how different things are this time around. The economy certainly helped, as did Hall’s flaws as a candidate, but the simple fact is that Parker ran an aggressive campaign that had a significant GOTV effort that got a lot less attention than her attack ads against Hall did, and the results speak for themselves. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The time to beat her was two years ago. Timing matters. Greg has more.
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