Let’s move on to the Controller’s race, where incumbent Ronald Green held on to win a third term against challenger Bill Frazer.
Dist Frazer Green Frazer% Green%
=====================================
A 6,609 4,102 61.70% 38.30%
B 1,637 10,035 14.03% 85.97%
C 14,185 9,385 60.18% 39.82%
D 3,035 13,682 18.16% 81.84%
E 9,777 4,130 70.30% 29.70%
F 2,829 2,917 49.23% 50.77%
G 15,914 4,844 76.66% 23.34%
H 2,898 4,814 37.58% 62.42%
I 2,789 4,726 37.11% 62.89%
J 2,391 2,237 51.66% 48.34%
K 4,226 8,232 33.92% 66.08%
City Controller Ronald Green
Green had a typically strong performance in the African-American districts – do a quick comparison of his numbers to Ben Hall‘s and you’ll see what a strong performance looks like – and he needed those numbers. The addition of an almost 2000 vote net in Fort Bend County gave him a little extra breathing room. What really stands out to me are the numbers in Districts G and C. District G I understand – it’s Republican turf, and Frazer generally received Republican endorsements – but the margin was a lot stronger than in A and E. More stunning is District C, which is Democratic territory. I presume that Green’s baggage had an effect here, but it’s still something to see. I had thought going into Election Day that Green might have needed to root for Ben Hall to drive some turnout in the African-American districts. Looking at these numbers, I think Mayor Parker’s turnout operation nearly swamped Green’s boat. C and G were her strongest and third strongest districts, and they had the largest number of voters by far. I didn’t see that possibility coming.
As for Frazer, he did pretty well for a first time candidate in a generally overlooked race. A little better performance in A and E, and who knows, we might have a new Controller today. As Greg points out, if the undervote rate in the GOP boxes had been as low as the undervote rate in the African-American boxes, he quite possibly could have won. The good news for Frazer is that he’s well positioned to make a serious run in 2015 if he wants to. Looking at the list of Council members that will be term limited out in two years – Costello, Bradford, Pennington, and Gonzalez – it’s not clear to me who his competition might be. He’d likely have a harder time against a candidate who didn’t carry Green’s negatives, but in any multi-candidate scenario he’d have to be a strong favorite to make it to a runoff, and from there anything can happen.
I agree that Frazer is well-positioned to claim the Controller position in 2015.
District C is not so overwhelmingly Democratic in its behavior. My Heights area precinct voted 52% for Romney but 74% for Mayor Parker. Centrist Republicans like Costello or Clutterbuck would do well here, or a Log Cabin Republican like Chris Busby.