Targeting 2008: State Senate

I spend a lot of time analyzing different types of races, for State House, for Congress, and for countywide offices. I do this because it’s where most of the action is. Since I first started to really follow this stuff in 2002, I can’t think of a single general election State Senate race that was particularly compelling or competitive.

I’m hoping that 2008 will be very different. For one thing, if we’ve learned anything from the past few sessions, it’s that the Democrats in the Senate have no margin for error. The eleven votes they have now are a much more solid bloc than the twelve they had in 2003 and 2005, but with one member forced to stay home most of this session due to health issues, the Dems may find themselves in a position where they can’t block a bill they really want to. Even with all eleven present, they’re still at the mercy of a single turncoat. The only cushion for this will be to elect more Democrats.

Fortunately, it looks like the Dems will have some chances to do just exactly that in 2008. Before I begin, let me say that I’m indebted to a reader who goes by the handle “blank”, who sent me some numbers that make the case for State Senate action clear, and who identified a top target that had been completely beneath my radar. “Blank” did the heavy lifting on this one, I’m just putting some polish on it.

Based on 2006 performance in their districts, there are four Republican Senators who should draw strong challenges this year, if the Democrats are serious about making inroads in the Lege. Here they are, based on the numbers in the Moody/Willett Supreme Court race:

Dist Senator        Dem  GOP   KBH   BAR Jones Henry Willett  Moody
===================================================================
10   Kim Brimer    43.3 56.7  61.7  38.3  55.2  44.8    52.7   47.3
16   John Carona   41.5 58.5  62.1  37.9  57.7  42.3    53.4   46.6
9    Chris Harris  40.0	60.0  64.6  35.4  58.8  41.2    55.8   44.2
11   Mike Jackson  38.5 61.5  65.5  34.5  59.2  40.8    56.7   43.3

A full listing is here (Excel spreadsheet). Jackson already has a strong opponent, and there’s rumors he’ll retire after this session. Carona is in the same boat as Pete Sessions in that there’s only so many targets left for Dallas Dems to shoot for, so I expect him to get a big name opponent, possibly a sitting State Rep. Harris isn’t very well liked, but as his district covers parts of Dallas, Tarrant, and Denton counties, with Denton being nearly half of it, I think he’s the most likely to skate by without having to break a sweat.

The one who surprised me, as much by his mere inclusion as by his placement atop the list, is Kim Brimer. His district is entirely within Tarrant County, which is the one major urban county to remain a Republican stronghold (though that’s gradually weakening), so it hadn’t occurred to me to look there. But by every measure, Brimer is the Republican Senator in the bluest district.

Part of this is electoral drift. Compare how various State Rep and Congressional Democratic candidates did in the parts of their districts that overlap Brimer’s SD10 Tarrant County in 2006 and 2004:

CD  2004 Dem   Votes    Pct   2006 Dem   Votes    Pct Change
============================================================
6      Meyer  58,507  35.22     Harris  37,864  40.33   5.11
12  Alvarado  55,186  30.76     Morris  36,672  33.92   3.16
24      Page  26,573  28.86       Page  17,880  32.72   3.86
26     Reyes  49,764  45.90   Barnwell  30,088  47.72   1.82
Total        190,030  34.80            122,504  38.32   3.52


HD  2004 Dem   Votes    Pct   2006 Dem   Votes    Pct Change
============================================================
90    Burnam  14,841  65.22     Burnam   9,647  73.00   7.78
93   Gregory  17,924  43.94    Pierson  10,761  49.35   5.41
94 Woolridge  21,262  36.89     Pillow  11,145  32.49  -4.39
96       Cox  26,447  39.67 Youngblood  16,475  44.29   4.62
97   Stevens  23,425  36.76    Barrett  16,900  40.82   4.07
99      Popp  17,602  30.33       Ford  12,279  33.83   3.50
Total        121,501  39.24             77,207  41.91   2.67

On the Congressional side, I’d rate David Harris and Tim Barnwell as better candidates than Morris Meyer and Lico Reyes, but the other two are a wash. Burnam was unopposed in 2006, so his percentage is an estimate; Paula Hightower Pierson won her district. David Pillow ran against ParentPAC candidate Diane Patrick, who’d knocked off the unloved Kent Grusendorf in the primary. Both HDs 96 (Bill Zedler, 52.46% in 2006) and 97 (Anna Mowery, 55.93%) should draw strong challengers as well. It’s hard to judge how a Presidential year will compare to a non-Presidential year – obviously, who’s at the top of the ticket will make a difference – but the opportunity is there for the Dems to improve on those numbers further.

And that’s critical, because the situation is even closer to a tipping point than these numbers indicate. In 2006, there was one high-profile countywide race in Tarrant, for District Attorney. Democratic challenger Terri Moore got 46.84% of the vote, easily making her the best-performing Democrat in the county. As you can see from this spreadsheet, she came even closer to winning a majority of the vote in SD10 – she wound up with 49.22% of the vote there. Yet in doing so, she had fewer votes than incumbents Burnam and Veasey, while running even with Hightower Pierson; she did do better than the other Democratic challengers. In other words, there’s still room for growth.

Now of course the Democrats have to actually nominate someone who can give Kim Brimer a run for his money. I’m told they’re working on that, but until then this is all theoretical. And for sure, it’s a lot easier to make this case on the Internet than it is in real life. Brimer isn’t a particularly distinguished Senator – considering that the Metroplex contingent includes the likes of Jane Nelson, Florence Shapiro, and Royce West, plus Harris and Carona, he’s practically invisible – but he’s still an incumbent, and he’ll surely have whatever resources he’ll need. The point I’m making is that you can’t win if you don’t try, and this is a race that needs trying. I’ll keep an eye on this one to see what develops. Thanks again to “blank” for the inspiration and the data.

UPDATE: Correction noted per blank’s comment. I’ll try to dig through the precinct numbers and come up with the actual SD10 totals.

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