Kim Ogg had the second highest vote total in Harris County this year. Let’s see how that looked at a more granular level.
Dist Anderson Ogg Anderson% Ogg%
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CD02 156,027 117,810 56.98% 43.02%
CD07 135,065 118,837 53.20% 46.80%
CD09 26,881 106,334 20.18% 79.82%
CD10 78,602 38,896 66.90% 33.10%
CD18 47,408 154,503 23.48% 76.52%
CD29 36,581 93,437 28.14% 71.86%
SBOE6 328,802 277,271 54.25% 45.75%
HD126 34,499 26,495 56.56% 43.44%
HD127 46,819 26,260 64.07% 35.93%
HD128 39,995 18,730 68.11% 31.89%
HD129 40,707 27,844 59.38% 40.62%
HD130 57,073 23,239 71.06% 28.94%
HD131 7,301 38,651 15.89% 84.11%
HD132 36,674 31,478 53.81% 46.19%
HD133 46,242 29,195 61.30% 38.70%
HD134 43,962 45,142 49.34% 50.66%
HD135 31,190 28,312 52.42% 47.58%
HD137 8,728 18,040 32.61% 67.39%
HD138 26,576 24,189 52.35% 47.65%
HD139 12,379 39,537 23.84% 76.16%
HD140 6,613 20,621 24.28% 75.72%
HD141 5,305 32,677 13.97% 86.03%
HD142 10,428 34,242 23.34% 76.66%
HD143 9,100 23,434 27.97% 72.03%
HD144 10,758 16,100 40.06% 59.94%
HD145 11,145 22,949 32.69% 67.31%
HD146 10,090 38,147 20.92% 79.08%
HD147 12,156 45,221 21.19% 78.81%
HD148 17,538 29,848 37.01% 62.99%
HD149 15,352 27,535 35.80% 64.20%
HD150 47,268 28,160 62.67% 37.33%
CC1 73,521 240,194 23.44% 76.56%
CC2 123,178 126,996 49.24% 50.76%
CC3 187,095 164,487 53.22% 46.78%
CC4 204,103 164,355 55.39% 44.61%
Kim Ogg
Ogg received 696,955 votes, which is about 11K fewer than Hillary Clinton, while Anderson drew 588,464 votes, or 42.5K more than Donald Trump. I believe the differences can be accounted for as Ogg not getting as many crossovers as Clinton, while Anderson picked up most of the Gary Johnson supporters. Compare the results from the Presidential race and the judicial races to get a feel for this. In particular, compare the Presidential numbers in HD134 to the same numbers above. Ogg got 4,765 fewer votes than Clinton in the district. Add to that the 4,044 Johnson votes for a total of 8,809, and then observe that Anderson did 8,131 votes better than Trump did. Not exact, but pretty close. There are some fudge factors as well – some of those Johnson voters were straight party Libertarian, Ogg may have received some Jill Stein votes, etc. It’s good enough for a back-of-the-envelope approximation, is what I’m saying.
Outside of HD134, Ogg consistently did about two points better across the county, with slightly bigger gains in more Republican districts. Basically, Ogg is to 2016 what Adrian Garcia was to 2008. Garcia maintained his status as Democratic pacesetter in 2012, and I think Ogg will have the chance to do that in 2020 if she does a good job and accomplishes the goals she has laid out. We have seen plenty of examples of county officials and candidates for county office drawing bipartisan support, on both sides. We’ve also seen examples of failed incumbents getting turned out in emphatic fashion. Good performance is good politics in these elections.
I’ll look at the other countywide races in the coming days. Are there any particular questions you’d like me to explore with this data? Let me know.
Sarah Davis’ public endorsement of Anderson may account for the relatively stronger showing in that district, or perhaps there are just lots of assistant DAs living in the district.
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