News flash: Hillary Clinton won every Dallas County State Rep district. See for yourself:
Dist Trump Clinton Johnson Stein
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CD32 117,758 127,824 5,751 1,056
HD100 8,405 33,647 647 217
HD102 24,768 30,291 1,312 287
HD103 8,710 28,689 683 205
HD104 6,941 25,168 414 200
HD105 20,979 25,087 855 246
HD107 24,162 29,159 991 274
HD108 34,621 39,583 2,106 290
HD109 10,714 53,220 573 247
HD110 4,006 31,137 248 128
HD111 11,700 44,926 599 262
HD112 26,081 26,735 1,119 231
HD113 26,468 27,530 898 261
HD114 29,221 35,259 1,586 246
HD115 26,158 30,895 1,501 319
CD32 46.66% 50.65% 2.28% 0.42%
HD100 19.58% 78.40% 1.51% 0.51%
HD102 43.71% 53.46% 2.32% 0.51%
HD103 22.75% 74.93% 1.78% 0.54%
HD104 21.21% 76.91% 1.27% 0.61%
HD105 44.48% 53.19% 1.81% 0.52%
HD107 44.26% 53.42% 1.82% 0.50%
HD108 45.20% 51.67% 2.75% 0.38%
HD109 16.55% 82.19% 0.88% 0.38%
HD110 11.28% 87.66% 0.70% 0.36%
HD111 20.35% 78.15% 1.04% 0.46%
HD112 48.15% 49.36% 2.07% 0.43%
HD113 47.99% 49.91% 1.63% 0.47%
HD114 44.07% 53.17% 2.39% 0.37%
HD115 44.43% 52.48% 2.55% 0.54%
I included the CD32 numbers as well since we were just discussing CD32. As before, remember that CD32 also includes part of Collin County, so this is not all of CD32.
You know by now that the Clinton numbers do not tell the most accurate story about the partisan levels in a given district. I have relied on judicial race numbers to highlight swings, trends, and opportunities, and I will do the same here in subsequent posts. I can tell you from the numbers that you will see in these posts that there were probably 20K to 25K crossover voters for Clinton, and it seems clear that a lot of them came in the most Republican districts in Dallas. A big difference between Dallas and Harris is that while the latter has several untouchably red districts, Dallas really doesn’t. HD108 is the closest thing Dallas has to that, and it was 59-39 for Romney in 2012. By contrast, eight of the 11 districts won by Romney in Harris County were redder than that, three of them by double digits. Dallas is a solid blue county (57-42 for Obama over Romney in 2012) drawn to give the Republicans an 8-6 majority of their legislative caucus. There’s no margin for error here.
And they didn’t have that margin in this election. Dems picked up HD107, and lost HD105 by 64 votes. As you will see, three other districts – HDs 102, 113, and 115 – present strong opportunities to accompany HD105 going forward. The Republicans are going to have some interesting decisions to make when it comes time to redraw the lines in 2021.
Will you be doing a 2016 precinct analysis for the Texas State Senate districts? It would be interesting to see if there is even a prayer of flipping any Senate districts in 2018 outside of Konni Burton’s. Based on 2014 results, the only ones with even remote hope (as in 65% or less GOP) are SD5, SD9, SD10 (Burton), SD16, SD17, and SD25. Could anti-Trump sentiment or a massive turnout operation come anywhere close to moving any of these? With Bettencourt at 72% last time, I can’t imagine even the rosiest possible turnout scenario would put a dent in SD7.
Reader – Yes, but I don’t have that data yet, as none of those seats were up for election last year. The Texas Legislative Council will have its 2016 data available in the next few weeks, and then I will look at Senate seats. I agree with your assessment, I just don’t have the numbers quite yet.