Last time we looked at the Presidential numbers in Dallas County legislative districts (plus CD32). Today we follow up with a look at the statewide races. I’m going to throw a lot of numbers at you, so please bear with me. First up is the Railroad Commissioner race.
Dist Christian Yarb Miller Salinas
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CD32 127,172 101,375 18,842 7,581
HD100 8,888 29,754 2,224 1,870
HD102 26,577 24,667 4,356 1,754
HD103 9,440 24,092 2,323 2,243
HD104 6,795 21,811 1,415 2,490
HD105 21,041 21,678 2,461 2,002
HD107 24,459 24,691 3,268 2,185
HD108 40,389 28,190 7,223 2,151
HD109 10,701 50,748 1,679 1,563
HD110 3,889 28,975 880 1,441
HD111 11,869 42,162 1,717 1,816
HD112 26,793 22,698 3,217 1,838
HD113 26,209 24,396 2,578 1,841
HD114 32,625 27,279 5,409 1,757
HD115 27,967 25,420 3,680 2,024
HD100 20.80% 69.62% 5.20% 4.38%
HD102 46.34% 43.01% 7.59% 3.06%
HD103 24.78% 63.24% 6.10% 5.89%
HD104 20.90% 67.09% 4.35% 7.66%
HD105 44.60% 45.95% 5.22% 4.24%
HD107 44.79% 45.22% 5.99% 4.00%
HD108 51.81% 36.16% 9.27% 2.76%
HD109 16.54% 78.45% 2.60% 2.42%
HD110 11.05% 82.35% 2.50% 4.10%
HD111 20.62% 73.24% 2.98% 3.15%
HD112 49.12% 41.61% 5.90% 3.37%
HD113 47.63% 44.34% 4.69% 3.35%
HD114 48.64% 40.67% 8.06% 2.62%
HD115 47.33% 43.02% 6.23% 3.43%
Three things to note here, all of which we’ll talk about some more as we go on. First, while Hillary Clinton carried all of the State Rep districts, Grady Yarbrough only led in eight of the fourteen. Yarbrough is a perennial candidate who doesn’t campaign and his numbers reflect that, but as you will see even many strong candidates didn’t carry any more districts than he did. Note also that while Wayne Christian led in the other six districts, he only achieved a majority in HD108. Other Republicans did do better than that, but this is another illustration of the dilemma I mentioned before for Republicans in Dallas County, which is that they have no votes to spare.
Second, note that while Democrat Victoria Neave knocked off Republican incumbent Kenneth Sheets in HD107 while Republican Rodney Anderson held on in HD105, Grady Yarbrough did slightly better in HD105 than he did in HD107. This too will generally be the case with other candidates, yet it was the (mildly) redder district that flipped. My conclusion is that Rodney Anderson was a better candidate than Kenneth Sheets, Victoria Neave was a better candidate than Terry Meza, or some combination of the two. It would be nice to have a fuller understanding of this going into 2018.
Finally, note the relatively large share of the third party vote in this race. As much as 12% of the total went to the Libertarian or Green candidate in some districts. Part of this is the extreme disaffection for the two major party candidates – Yarbrough is this generation’s Gene Kelly, while Wayne Christian is Sid Miller with better Facebook etiquette. Libertarian candidate Mark Miller received numerous newspaper endorsements, which no doubt helped boost him. The level of third party votes varies quite a bit from race to race, and we’ll talk a bit more about that as we go.
Here are the Supreme Court races:
Dist Lehrmann Westgrn Glass Munoz
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CD32 136,227 102,030 11,608 5,515
HD100 9,622 29,867 1,738 1,555
HD102 28,692 24,769 2,722 1,256
HD103 10,115 24,388 1,739 1,933
HD104 7,139 21,763 1,137 2,476
HD105 21,837 21,577 2,057 1,736
HD107 25,827 24,628 2,362 1,830
HD108 43,691 29,108 3,997 1,455
HD109 11,323 50,358 1,645 1,335
HD110 4,116 28,791 839 1,435
HD111 12,539 41,839 1,530 1,622
HD112 28,047 22,614 2,491 1,392
HD113 27,111 24,122 2,219 1,596
HD114 35,843 27,324 2,817 1,196
HD115 29,448 25,472 2,719 1,503
HD100 22.49% 69.81% 4.06% 3.63%
HD102 49.95% 43.12% 4.74% 2.19%
HD103 26.50% 63.88% 4.56% 5.06%
HD104 21.96% 66.93% 3.50% 7.61%
HD105 46.26% 45.71% 4.36% 3.68%
HD107 47.26% 45.07% 4.32% 3.35%
HD108 55.83% 37.20% 5.11% 1.86%
HD109 17.51% 77.88% 2.54% 2.06%
HD110 11.70% 81.84% 2.38% 4.08%
HD111 21.80% 72.73% 2.66% 2.82%
HD112 51.42% 41.46% 4.57% 2.55%
HD113 49.25% 43.82% 4.03% 2.90%
HD114 53.35% 40.67% 4.19% 1.78%
HD115 49.79% 43.07% 4.60% 2.54%
Dist Green Garza Oxford Watbry
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CD32 130,386 111,872 9,681 3,195
HD100 9,098 31,667 1,346 603
HD102 27,292 26,989 2,276 779
HD103 9,617 26,609 1,344 562
HD104 6,939 24,174 910 475
HD105 21,416 23,553 1,617 578
HD107 25,163 26,846 1,875 719
HD108 41,235 32,649 3,355 917
HD109 10,993 51,813 1,206 602
HD110 3,976 30,197 622 377
HD111 12,188 43,599 1,118 562
HD112 27,383 24,343 2,060 735
HD113 26,743 25,820 1,772 658
HD114 33,687 30,279 2,377 773
HD115 28,258 27,857 2,217 709
HD100 21.30% 74.14% 3.15% 1.41%
HD102 47.60% 47.07% 3.97% 1.36%
HD103 25.22% 69.78% 3.52% 1.47%
HD104 21.35% 74.39% 2.80% 1.46%
HD105 45.41% 49.94% 3.43% 1.23%
HD107 46.08% 49.17% 3.43% 1.32%
HD108 52.76% 41.77% 4.29% 1.17%
HD109 17.01% 80.19% 1.87% 0.93%
HD110 11.30% 85.86% 1.77% 1.07%
HD111 21.21% 75.87% 1.95% 0.98%
HD112 50.22% 44.65% 3.78% 1.35%
HD113 48.63% 46.95% 3.22% 1.20%
HD114 50.19% 45.11% 3.54% 1.15%
HD115 47.86% 47.18% 3.76% 1.20%
Dist Guzman Johnson Fulton Chisholm
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CD32 137,660 104,318 9,866 3,111
HD100 10,332 30,480 1,356 537
HD102 28,955 25,318 2,291 737
HD103 11,311 24,926 1,386 503
HD104 8,833 22,313 870 478
HD105 22,576 22,271 1,666 635
HD107 26,507 25,365 1,953 753
HD108 44,174 29,648 3,422 839
HD109 11,758 51,244 1,120 513
HD110 4,882 29,384 607 302
HD111 13,190 42,695 1,082 533
HD112 28,371 23,238 2,118 765
HD113 27,635 24,827 1,837 685
HD114 36,095 27,820 2,399 716
HD115 29,790 26,192 2,302 731
HD100 24.19% 71.37% 3.18% 1.26%
HD102 50.53% 44.18% 4.00% 1.29%
HD103 29.67% 65.38% 3.64% 1.32%
HD104 27.18% 68.67% 2.68% 1.47%
HD105 47.88% 47.24% 3.53% 1.35%
HD107 48.57% 46.47% 3.58% 1.38%
HD108 56.57% 37.97% 4.38% 1.07%
HD109 18.19% 79.28% 1.73% 0.79%
HD110 13.88% 83.54% 1.73% 0.86%
HD111 22.94% 74.25% 1.88% 0.93%
HD112 52.06% 42.64% 3.89% 1.40%
HD113 50.26% 45.15% 3.34% 1.25%
HD114 53.85% 41.50% 3.58% 1.07%
HD115 50.48% 44.38% 3.90% 1.24%
Lehrmann and Guzman were the two top performers for the GOP, while Garza was the high scorer for the Dems. All three Republicans far outperformed Wayne Christian, with the difference being especially visible in the lower totals for the Libertarian candidates. Lehrmann and Guzman carried eight of the 14 State Rep districts, while Green managed to take only six against Garza, with HDs 102 and 115 coming within a point of being blue. In all three cases, HD105 was more Democratic than HD107.
What really stands out for me is the disparity in Green candidate totals. Add in the RRC race, and it it is quite apparent that the two best performing Green candidates were Latino/a. Each of the other races featured a major party Latina candidate, which likely exaggerated the effect further. I discussed this at a macro level before, so none of this should be too surprising. It’s just really fascinating to see it at a more granular level. The lesson I would draw from this for Democrats is that Latino voter engagement is more complex and multifaceted than we might think.
Last but not least, the CCA races:
Dist Keel Meyers Ash Reposa
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CD32 135,994 104,110 10,500 3,510
HD100 9,656 30,633 1,571 733
HD102 28,668 25,212 2,434 839
HD103 10,290 25,247 1,644 808
HD104 7,418 22,993 1,149 844
HD105 21,920 22,480 1,841 787
HD107 25,897 25,482 2,241 831
HD108 43,510 29,495 3,644 1,039
HD109 11,235 51,414 1,297 624
HD110 4,138 29,786 757 465
HD111 12,539 42,891 1,279 711
HD112 28,187 23,120 2,240 844
HD113 27,147 24,944 1,994 806
HD114 35,595 27,826 2,537 771
HD115 29,577 26,015 2,399 875
HD100 22.67% 71.92% 3.69% 1.72%
HD102 50.16% 44.11% 4.26% 1.47%
HD103 27.09% 66.46% 4.33% 2.13%
HD104 22.89% 70.96% 3.55% 2.60%
HD105 46.61% 47.80% 3.91% 1.67%
HD107 47.56% 46.80% 4.12% 1.53%
HD108 56.01% 37.97% 4.69% 1.34%
HD109 17.40% 79.63% 2.01% 0.97%
HD110 11.77% 84.75% 2.15% 1.32%
HD111 21.84% 74.70% 2.23% 1.24%
HD112 51.82% 42.51% 4.12% 1.55%
HD113 49.46% 45.44% 3.63% 1.47%
HD114 53.34% 41.70% 3.80% 1.16%
HD115 50.24% 44.19% 4.08% 1.49%
Dist Walker Johnson Strange S-Castro
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CD32 133,937 106,627 8,271 5,357
HD100 9,277 30,966 1,183 1,214
HD102 28,067 25,890 1,955 1,223
HD103 9,909 25,425 1,171 1,486
HD104 7,067 22,888 805 1,708
HD105 21,553 22,789 1,379 1,348
HD107 25,519 25,883 1,615 1,470
HD108 42,970 30,333 2,947 1,471
HD109 10,910 51,776 931 1,013
HD110 3,931 29,745 558 939
HD111 12,141 43,230 907 1,224
HD112 27,643 23,689 1,744 1,320
HD113 26,878 25,260 1,469 1,343
HD114 35,066 28,487 1,968 1,199
HD115 28,851 26,763 1,847 1,373
HD100 21.76% 72.62% 2.77% 2.85%
HD102 49.12% 45.31% 3.42% 2.14%
HD103 26.08% 66.92% 3.08% 3.91%
HD104 21.77% 70.49% 2.48% 5.26%
HD105 45.79% 48.42% 2.93% 2.86%
HD107 46.84% 47.50% 2.96% 2.70%
HD108 55.29% 39.03% 3.79% 1.89%
HD109 16.88% 80.11% 1.44% 1.57%
HD110 11.18% 84.57% 1.59% 2.67%
HD111 21.11% 75.18% 1.58% 2.13%
HD112 50.82% 43.55% 3.21% 2.43%
HD113 48.91% 45.97% 2.67% 2.44%
HD114 52.56% 42.70% 2.95% 1.80%
HD115 49.04% 45.49% 3.14% 2.33%
Dist Keasler Burns Bennett
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CD32 134,429 107,470 11,490
HD100 9,518 31,274 1,710
HD102 28,210 26,096 2,677
HD103 10,127 26,011 1,752
HD104 7,392 23,511 1,392
HD105 21,842 23,012 2,081
HD107 25,630 26,129 2,509
HD108 42,923 30,705 3,834
HD109 11,114 51,813 1,564
HD110 4,079 30,030 975
HD111 12,540 43,238 1,523
HD112 27,901 23,798 2,531
HD113 26,940 25,409 2,401
HD114 35,129 28,774 2,620
HD115 28,999 26,874 2,791
HD100 22.39% 73.58% 4.02%
HD102 49.51% 45.80% 4.70%
HD103 26.73% 68.65% 4.62%
HD104 22.89% 72.80% 4.31%
HD105 46.54% 49.03% 4.43%
HD107 47.23% 48.15% 4.62%
HD108 55.41% 39.64% 4.95%
HD109 17.23% 80.34% 2.43%
HD110 11.63% 85.59% 2.78%
HD111 21.88% 75.46% 2.66%
HD112 51.45% 43.88% 4.67%
HD113 49.21% 46.41% 4.39%
HD114 52.81% 43.25% 3.94%
HD115 49.43% 45.81% 4.76%
The main point of interest here is the third race, which featured a Libertarian but not a Green. Mark Bennett did better than one of the other Libs and about the same as the other, while Robert Burns did a little better than his fellow Ds; he probably absorbed a few of the votes than might have gone Green otherwise, but not too many. I don’t think there are any firm conclusions to be drawn here. And note again, HD105 was more Democratic than HD107.
So that’s what we have so far. I’ll have one more post, with county races, next. Let me know what you think.