One more look at Dallas County, this time with the county-level judicial races. I like to use these partly because they’re a pretty good proxy for partisan preference, and partly because they provide a straight up two-party comparison, which is more useful for assessing possible legislative races. There were seven contested district and county court races in Dallas in 2016. Rather than go with the averages, I thought this time I’d show the low, middle, and high cases for both parties. Here they are, beginning with the top end for the Republicans.
Dist Rankin Ewing
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CD32 142,570 108,735
HD100 10,395 31,810
HD102 30,060 26,476
HD103 11,050 26,444
HD104 8,064 24,006
HD105 22,991 23,584
HD107 27,272 26,642
HD108 45,627 30,928
HD109 11,824 52,412
HD110 4,453 30,457
HD111 13,106 43,945
HD112 29,511 24,313
HD113 28,463 25,957
HD114 37,179 28,877
HD115 30,771 27,446
HD100 24.63% 75.37%
HD102 53.17% 46.83%
HD103 29.47% 70.53%
HD104 25.14% 74.86%
HD105 49.36% 50.64%
HD107 50.58% 49.42%
HD108 59.60% 40.40%
HD109 18.41% 81.59%
HD110 12.76% 87.24%
HD111 22.97% 77.03%
HD112 54.83% 45.17%
HD113 52.30% 47.70%
HD114 56.28% 43.72%
HD115 52.86% 47.14%
Dist Lee Garza
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CD32 136,511 114,646
HD100 9,818 32,426
HD102 28,758 27,772
HD103 10,256 27,316
HD104 7,180 25,078
HD105 22,441 24,238
HD107 26,312 27,665
HD108 43,290 33,182
HD109 11,526 52,739
HD110 4,211 30,739
HD111 12,738 44,367
HD112 28,664 25,192
HD113 27,864 26,603
HD114 35,097 30,885
HD115 29,832 28,411
HD100 23.24% 76.76%
HD102 50.87% 49.13%
HD103 27.30% 72.70%
HD104 22.26% 77.74%
HD105 48.08% 51.92%
HD107 48.75% 51.25%
HD108 56.61% 43.39%
HD109 17.94% 82.06%
HD110 12.05% 87.95%
HD111 22.31% 77.69%
HD112 53.22% 46.78%
HD113 51.16% 48.84%
HD114 53.19% 46.81%
HD115 51.22% 48.78%
Dist Spackman Kennedy
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CD32 131,796 118,915
HD100 9,347 32,845
HD102 27,670 28,774
HD103 9,899 27,564
HD104 7,192 24,892
HD105 21,784 24,772
HD107 25,377 28,466
HD108 41,780 34,604
HD109 10,973 53,215
HD110 4,025 30,894
HD111 12,239 44,758
HD112 27,734 26,008
HD113 27,065 27,265
HD114 33,824 32,002
HD115 28,767 29,380
HD100 22.15% 77.85%
HD102 49.02% 50.98%
HD103 26.42% 73.58%
HD104 22.42% 77.58%
HD105 46.79% 53.21%
HD107 47.13% 52.87%
HD108 54.70% 45.30%
HD109 17.10% 82.90%
HD110 11.53% 88.47%
HD111 21.47% 78.53%
HD112 51.61% 48.39%
HD113 49.82% 50.18%
HD114 51.38% 48.62%
HD115 49.47% 50.53%
So the best case for the Republicans is a clear win in six districts, with two tossups. Democrats can reasonably hope to have an advantage in eight districts, and in a really good year could mount a decent challenge in 11. These are Presidential year conditions, of course, though as we’ve discussed several times, there’s every reason to believe that 2018 will not be like 2010 or 2014. It still could be bad – Dems will definitely have to protect HD107 – but if the off-year cycle has been broken, there are a lot of opportunities in Dallas to make gains.
(Note: The Texas Legislative Council only does state races, so I don’t have this data for Senate districts.)
One more race to look at, the Sheriff’s race:
Dist Launius Valdez
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CD32 125,590 116,091
HD100 8,596 32,042
HD102 26,259 27,959
HD103 8,960 27,368
HD104 6,471 24,651
HD105 20,582 24,156
HD107 24,177 27,828
HD108 39,618 33,712
HD109 10,515 51,923
HD110 3,700 30,414
HD111 11,691 43,836
HD112 26,468 25,014
HD113 25,962 26,459
HD114 32,131 31,998
HD115 27,305 28,607
HD100 21.15% 78.85%
HD102 48.43% 51.57%
HD103 24.66% 75.34%
HD104 20.79% 79.21%
HD105 46.01% 53.99%
HD107 46.49% 53.51%
HD108 54.03% 45.97%
HD109 16.84% 83.16%
HD110 10.85% 89.15%
HD111 21.05% 78.95%
HD112 51.41% 48.59%
HD113 49.53% 50.47%
HD114 50.10% 49.90%
HD115 48.84% 51.16%
There were actually four candidates in this race, but I’m just showing the top two. As mentioned in an earlier post, Lupe Valdez came closest to carrying the Dallas portion of CD32. She also came within a whisker of carrying HD114, which no one else did. She’s basically equivalent to the high end judicial race above, maybe even a teeny bit better.