Again, not going to spend too much time on this, but here are the US House and State House races for which there are Republican primary runoffs:
Dist Candidate March%
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CD02 Roberts 33.03%
CD02 Crenshaw 27.42%
CD05 Gooden 29.97%
CD05 Pounds 21.95%
CD06 Wright 45.15%
CD06 Ellzey 21.76%
CD21 Roy 27.06%
CD21 McCall 16.93%
CD27 Bruun 36.09%
CD27 Cloud 33.83%
CD29 Aronoff 38.60%
CD29 Montiel 23.58%
HD04 Spitzer 45.78%
HD04 Bell 26.21%
HD08 Harris 44.99%
HD08 McNutt 39.39%
HD13 Wolfskill 38.47%
HD13 Leman 36.28%
HD54 Cosper 44.60%
HD54 Buckley 41.55%
HD62 Smith 45.84%
HD62 Lawson 34.35%
HD107 Metzger 45.32%
HD107 Ruzicka 27.34%
HD121 Beebe 29.56%
HD121 Allison 26.34%
We’ve discussed CD02 and CD21 in recent days. Bunni Pounds in CD05 is the Republicans’ best hope to bolster the ranks of female members of Congress from Texas. I mean sure, Carmen Montiel is still in the running in CD29, but I think we can all agree that winning the runoff would be her last hurrah. In any event, Pounds is outgoing Rep. Jeb Hensarling’s preferred successor, and she has the support of Mike Pence. Which, it turns out, has caused some drama in the White House, because everything these days causes drama in the White House. The two contenders in CD27 are also running in the special election. It would be funny if the runoff loser wound up winning that race, but my guess would be that the runoff loser withdraws from the special election.
In the State House races, HD121 is Joe Straus’ seat, while HD08 belonged to his deputy Byron Cook. Thomas McNutt and Matt Beebe are the wingnuts backed by Tim Dunn and Empower Texans who have run against Straus and Cook in the past, so if you hope to retain a touch of sanity in the lower chamber, root for their opponents. Scott Cosper is the lone incumbent in a runoff. Stuart Spitzer is a return customer in HD04 best known for his extreme love of virginity. HD107 is held by freshman Dem Victoria Neave, who like Rep. Oliveira had a recent brush with the law, and in part due to that may be the one truly vulnerable Dem in any legislative chamber this cycle. HD107 is also the latest example of Why Every Vote Matters, as primary runnerup Joe Ruzicka collected 2,070 votes in March, exactly one more than third place finisher Brad Perry’s 2,069 votes.
Finally, there’s the runoff for Justice of the Peace in Precinct 5 in Harris County, a race that will be decided by the Republican runoff as no Democrat filed for it. (There actually was a Dem who filed but he either withdrew or was disqualified late in the game, I don’t know which, and there wasn’t the time to collect enough petition signatures for a backup candidate.) The race is between normal incumbent Republican Jeff Williams and village idiot Michael Wolfe, backed by the likes of Steven Hotze and Eric Dick, the Tweedledum to Wolfe’s Tweedledumber. Go read Erica Greider if you want to know more about it.
I think Gooden wins CD5. His base in Kaufman and Henderson has some runoff elections and the turnout should help him. Did a good job as framing himself as the east texas candidate. The race has become a Sessions/Hensarling proxy fight as Sessions endorsed Gooden and Hensarling endorsed Pounds. The key endorsement in Dallas for Gooden may be former Hd107 rep and CD5 candidate Kenneth Sheets. Gooden should do well in the upper middle to high income Dallas precincts in the Lakewood and Lake Highlands areas. If Pounds can get the pro-lifers and the tea party types to show up she still has a chance.
Metzger and Ruzicka should be close in HD107. Ruzicka has what’s left of the establishment but Metzger has the tea party types in Mesquite and Garland. Metzger has her own issues surrounding her residency. Probably a coin flip right now. With that said I think HD4 will have higher turnout than HD107.
As for November, Neave should win 107 but it will be competitive. The district is getting bluer every cycle and the high income precincts in Lakewood lean GOP but have the type of voters that were never trumpers.
Whoever wins the GOP primary in CD5 will lose the Dallas part of the district, but will win the election going away.